Green Bay Packers

NFL Playoffs 2017, Giants vs. Packers: X-Factors in Wild Card Round

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:44 p.m. ET

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Dec 11, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

As the 2017 NFL Playoffs get underway, looking at the biggest X-Factors for the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers in their NFC Wild Card matchup.

What a game this should be. The Giants have punched, kicked, and scratched their way back from the NFC East basement to lock up the first Wild Card spot as the No. 5 seed. After the Packers beat the G-Men to hand them their third-straight defeat and send them to a 2-3 record, it appeared Big Blue’s big offseason wouldn’t have big returns. But, New York’s defense stiffened even further, dragging the rest of the squad to a postseason berth.

On the other side of the field are the Packers. Green Bay went to 3-1 following their triumph over the Giants in Week 5. Unlike the resilient Giants who won their next six, the Pack lost five of their next six. The slide instigated an avalanche of backlash and criticism that mostly fell on Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. As always, Rodgers told us all to R-E-L-A-X and promised the Pack would run the table. Green Bay did just that, winning the final six games in a row to capture the NFC North.

Things have significantly changed since the Week 5 showdown between these two clubs. In the first go-round, injuries limited the Giants. Now, the injury bug bit Green Bay. The Packers had to convert a wide receiver to running back due to their decimated backfield. Meanwhile, New York found their running back of the future and appear to be at full strength in their stacked secondary.

There’s a factory of factors that will play a part in how things will shake out in this contest. We’re narrowing the list down to the four biggest, two for each team.

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Jordy Nelson, WR – Green Bay Packers

The Packers offense has their hands full with a Giants defense that has gone from good to great since Green Bay’s Week 5 win. In that game, New York’s first round pick Eli Apple hardly saw the field and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was limited, both because of injury. They’ll be at full force for the Wild Card along with a returning Janoris Jenkins, who’s been battling a bruised back the past couple weeks.

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Nelson caught four of 13 targets in the first meeting between the Packers and Giants. The dozen-plus targets were tied for the second most of his season. The 30.8 catch percentage was the second lowest of his season. The 38 receiving yards he put up was Nelson’s fourth lowest total. But, all those stats don’t matter. It’s points that count and Nelson found the end zone in what would end up being the decisive score.

The end zone has been an empty wasteland rarely seen by Giants opponents over the last quarter of the 2016 season. Big Blue’s defense has only allowed four offensive touchdowns in those four games. Three of those matchups came against potent offenses. If anyone can crack the code and cross the goal line, it would be the deadly red zone duo of Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers.

Green Bay ranks 10th in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring on 60 percent of trips inside the 20. Eleven of Jordy Nelson’s league-leading 14 receiving touchdowns came in the red zone and of those 11, nine came from inside the 10. Should the Packers move the ball deep into New York territory, they’ll be testing the best red zone defense in the league. The Giants should feel confident knowing that Nelson has only scored one touchdown in the six playoff games since Green Bay won the Super Bowl.

Oct 3, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins (20) looks on in disbelief after getting called for pass interference in the first quarter of the game with the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Janoris Jenkins, CB – New York Giants

Who kept the Giants competitive in their Week 5 game against the Packers? The answer is Janoris Jenkins, a.k.a. JackRabbit. His two interceptions off Aaron Rodgers prevented the contest from getting out of hand. Would Rodgers be so bold as to test Jenkins again in the Wild Card?

Through Week 14, Jenkins was among the 10 highest-graded cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. They also ranked him as the sixth best corner in the 2016 season. Here’s what they had to say about the New York newcomer’s work:

Janoris Jenkins has been a success in New York, and largely eliminated the huge coverage busts that have plagued his career before this season. He has surrendered just one touchdown in 2016, having been beaten for at least five in every previous year of his career…

Pro Football Focus named Jenkins to second team on their All-Pro rundown and named him the fourth-best free agent signing of the 2016 season.

While Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has saved a few Giants wins with late-game interceptions (and is ranked as the 10th best cornerback by Pro Football Focus), Jenkins has been the shutdown corner. He blanketed Dez Bryant in the Giants 10-7 win in Week 14 and was sorely missed in the Week 16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Though the Giants have shown they can win without Jenkins, having JackRabbit on the field vastly increases New York’s chances of advancing.

There were some questions about JackRabbit’s health after he hurt his back against the Detroit Lions in Week 15. He only played 42 percent of snaps against Washington in the season finale and sat out the second half when the Redskins mounted their comeback. But, according to Jenkins, his back “feels great”.

Many suspect Jenkins will shadow Green Bay’s top receiver and biggest red zone threat, the aforementioned Nelson. Though Nelson only caught four of 13 targets in their first meeting, one was for the opening touchdown. With Randall Cobb hobbled, the Giants can’t let Nelson beat them and that responsibility falls on the Mr. Lockdown, Jenkins.

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter during the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. The Packers beat the Bears 26-10. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Rodgers, QB – Green Bay Packers

Since throwing two interceptions in the Week 10 game against the Tennessee Titans, Aaron Rodgers has been virtually perfect. In the final seven games, Rodgers threw no picks and 18 touchdowns. In six of those contests, Rodgers earned a quarterback rating of 108 or higher.

Of the league-leading 40 touchdowns thrown by Rodgers, 31 of them came in the red zone with 24 coming inside the 10-yard line. No quarterback is better with the ball in that area than Rodgers and he’s got an array of talent to choose from.

While Jordy Nelson has been the main benefactor of Rodgers owning the red zone, Davante Adams has also emerged as a reliable target. However, the third option, Randall Cobb, has been downgraded due to an ankle injury, which means Jared Cook, Geronimo Allison, and Richard Rodgers should see opportunities.

The big key for Rodgers will be his mobility. He’s been one of the best at avoiding the rush, scrambling, buying time, and making the coverage pay. For the Giants, there’s no greater objective than containing Rodgers in the pocket and forcing (read: baiting) him into ill-advised throws. In playoff games in which Green Bay’s opponents sack Rodgers four or more times, the Packers are 0-3. The Packers offensive line allowed four sacks apiece in two of the final three regular season games.

Jan 1, 2017; Landover, MD, USA; New York Giants running back Paul Perkins (28) rushes the ball against the Washington Redskins during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Perkins, RB – New York Giants

At this point, you’d think the amount of hype and expectation placed on Giants rookie running back Paul Perkins would be too overwhelming for the fifth-round draft pick. But, the former UCLA Bruin has not only accepted the challenge, but excelled in his new role as workhorse.

Perkins used to be the secret weapon. He was considered by many as the steal of the Giants draft. Those who’d watched him run in college described him as the second coming of Tiki Barber for the G-Men.

Then, Perkins got off to somewhat of a slow start. He had to report late to Giants training camp and didn’t see much action in the first half of the 2016 season. His lone highlight was in the Week 4 game against the Minnesota Vikings when he took a short pass for a long gain. It provided a glimpse of his playmaking ability.

Fast forward to the final quarter of the regular season. Perkins has firmly entrenched himself as an essential piece of the Giants’ offensive puzzle. He’s no longer a secret, he’s now an X-Factor. The running plays haven’t really changed. Sure, the offensive line has settled. Justin Pugh has returned. But, Perkins just has more explosion and sharper cuts than incumbent Rashad Jennings.

When the Packers first faced the Giants in Week 5, Orleans Darkwa was the starter and Jennings didn’t see the field. Perkins had nine yards on two carries. Fans can expect that to change in the Wild Card game. With Green Bay’s linebacking group plagued by injury, Perkins should propel the Giants offense and open up the passing game.