National Football League

NFL odds Week 5: Best bets for Seahawks-Saints, Giants-Packers, more

Updated Oct. 7, 2022 8:19 p.m. ET

Quandre Diggs #6 of the Seattle Seahawks attempts to tackle Drake London #5 of the Atlanta Falcons during the second half of the game.

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I can't believe four weeks of the NFL season are already in the books! Where has the time gone? From a fan and bettor's perspective, it's been a blast.

Usually, oddsmakers will tighten up their power ratings after four weeks' worth of data, so this Week 5 slate should be interesting.

As for my wagers, four lines stuck out to me immediately, so I pounced on them before the odds potentially moved. Let's dive into my Week 5 bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Seahawks @ Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Seattle is definitely entertaining, and they actually might be good, folks. After four weeks, the Seahawks’ offense ranks No. 1 in the NFC. Yes, you read that correctly.

According to expected points added (EPA) the Hawks are slightly ahead of the Eagles, but they just faced a defense allowing 35 points per game. On the other side of the ball, Seattle ranks near the bottom of the NFL on defense. What does that mean for this week? Well, New Orleans is not healthy nor playing particularly well.

The Saints' defense was ranked 26th in DVOA entering their game against the Vikings in London, and they lived up to that ranking. The Vikings easily moved the ball but stalled out too much in the red zone, kicking five field goals in a 28-25 win.

The Saints now have to travel back from London and will attempt to get their quarterback, best running back and best receiver back on the field to face a feisty Seahawks team. I’ll gladly take the points early with the Seahawks in this spot.

PICK: Seahawks (+6 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright)

Chargers @ Browns (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Cleveland had a weird loss to Atlanta on Sunday. The Browns’ first drive ended at the Falcons’ three-yard line after a failed fourth down attempt. On Cleveland’s fourth drive, it had a first and goal at the one-yard line but ended up with a field goal attempt from the 11. Despite the failed attempts at scoring touchdowns in those moments, the Browns had the ball with the game tied late in the fourth quarterback before a punt, and an interception ended their game.

The Browns have a 1-point loss to the Jets and an end-of-game field goal by the Falcons as their two losses. They are a good team that’s having some issues finishing games on offense and defense.

Los Angeles comes to Cleveland off a win against a bad Texans team. The Chargers will make another road trip without a left tackle, their best pass rusher, their best cornerback, an All-Pro center and a few other vital cogs. They are a beat-up football team, and the Browns have the players to take advantage of it, especially on the defensive line.

If Myles Garrett is back, that spells danger for Justin Herbert and his broken rib cartilage. The Chargers' run defense is still leaky, and the Browns have the best combination of running backs and offensive linemen in the NFL. I’ll take the three points right now, early in the week.

PICK: Browns (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Mark Sanchez on Aaron Rodgers, Packers leading into Week 5 | THE HERD

Fox analyst Mark Sanchez joins Colin Cowherd to discuss Aaron Rodgers and the intensity of play he brings to the field.

Giants @ Packers (9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network)

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones appears to be on track to start this contest in London on Sunday morning against the Packers. And while I do not have any faith the Giants will win this game, I do think they are pesky enough to cover this spread.

With a heathy Saquon Barkley, combined with Daniel Jones' ability to run, the Giants have the 7th highest efficiency rushing attack. They are playing a Packers defense that is 28th in run defense. If the Giants continue to find innovative ways to get their rushing attack into spots for success, I think they can control the clock and keep it close.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is guiding an offense that is still trying to find its way with new receivers and an offensive line working its way back from injuries. The Packers are averaging fewer points and passing yards while allowing more sacks per game this season than they did over the first three years under Matt LaFleur.

The Giants defense is ranked second on third down and in the red zone. It would be fair to question these rankings since they haven't exactly faced a murderers' row of quarterbacks in the first four weeks in Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. So yes, Aaron Rodgers is by far the best quarterback they will have faced all season. But Rodgers has not played well.

Lastly, Daniel Jones has been excellent against the spread (ATS) away from home, going 13-6. I’ll take the giants to cover.

PICK: Giants (+7.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points (or win outright)

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Raiders @ Chiefs (8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN)

Andy Reid became the coach of the Kansas City in 2013 and his Chiefs squad has owned the Raiders, losing just three times in 18 games. Most of the 15 wins have been by over a touchdown, with just two of the wins coming in fewer than six points. More often than not, the scores look like we saw last season, which is the Chiefs winning 48-9 and 41-14. They are going to dominate a poor Raiders team again on Monday night.

The Chiefs got their swagger back against the Bucs on Sunday night and I do not expect a let-down against a hated rival in the Raiders. The Chiefs offense is back to where I expected, near the top of all efficiency numbers. The Raiders defense is 22nd in passing, 29th in the red zone and 31st in sacks. If you’re not pressuring Mahomes, he will tear this defense apart.

The Raiders offense has shown some life, but not enough where it counts. Their offensive line struggles, which leads to poor performance in the red zone. They are 28th in red zone offense. The Chiefs defense is much improved, and it’s not hard to see them winning in the trenches and being all over Carr from start to finish on Monday night.

The Chiefs are going to win this game and cover with ease.

PICK: Chiefs (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.