National Football League

NFL odds: Joe Burrow MVP odds on move, could impact sportsbooks

Updated Jul. 20, 2023 2:53 p.m. ET

When it comes to sports betting, you never really know when a team might start a hot streak. And by the time the streak becomes recognizable, bettors might figure that the law of averages — a regression to the mean — has to be coming, making them reticent to jump on board.

So in some instances, it takes some serious convincing before everybody joins in.

That has apparently been the case when it comes to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. With Burrow under center, the Bengals have practically become an ATM for bettors. But it took time for bookmakers to feel the pinch.

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Making Bank

This all began late in the 2021-22 regular season. Burrow led Cincy on a 3-0 straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) run. Then he capped that with a big 34-31 comeback home win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. This was a game in which the Bengals were 3.5-point underdogs.

Burrow didn’t start in Week 18, as the Bengals rested several key players for the postseason. For what it’s worth, though, Cincinnati was a 6.5-point underdog at Cleveland and still covered in a 21-16 loss. Then Burrow & Co. went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the playoffs, as they reached the Super Bowl. They lost the Big Game to the Rams 23-20, but covered as 4.5-point underdogs.

Then this season, the Bengals started 0-2 SU and ATS. So perhaps the thought was that the regression had arrived. Since then, however, Cincy has gone 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS. Yet it hasn’t cost BetMGM much until recently.

"The Bengals were our worst result [last] Saturday at Foxborough," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said, alluding to Cincinnati’s 22-18 win as a three-point favorite at New England. "That continues the pattern of the book losing on Cincy matches over the last month."

So late November was when more public or recreational bettors finally started to buy in. Even at that point, following the Bengals’ 20-16 victory where they laid one point at Tennessee, Burrow was on a 15-3 ATS spree.

A month later, he’s up to 19-3 ATS, with four more covers as part of a current 7-0 ATS streak. At the standard -110 price on point-spread bets ($110 bet nets $100 profit), if you’d put up $110 on each of those 22 games, you’d be up $1,570. Not too shabby.

But keeping that streak going in Week 17 will be a chore. The Bengals host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night and are currently one-point underdogs. One sharp Vegas bettor believes the Bills are the right side.

"Joe Burrow struggles with teams that can pass-rush, and Buffalo is right at the top of that list," he said. "And the injury to La’el Collins is enormous."

Collins, Cincy’s right tackle, tore his ACL and MCL in last week’s win at New England.

Joe Cool as MVP

Cincinnati shook off this season’s 0-2 SU and ATS start to now stand at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS. The Bengals still have a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed but must beat Buffalo on Monday night to stay in that chase.

That win could also give Burrow a late boost in the NFL MVP odds market. Burrow is currently the +700 second choice at FOX Bet, but that puts him way behind the prohibitive favorite. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is out to -500. And this week, Mahomes plays at home against a reeling Denver Broncos outfit that just fired its coach.

But if Burrow totally lights up the box score in a win against Buffalo and somehow the Broncos squelch Mahomes, then perhaps it gets more interesting.

"A prime-time win over fellow MVP candidate Josh Allen will all but erase Allen’s chances," said Dylan Brossman, trading operations senior manager at FOX Bet. "If [Eagles QB] Jalen Hurts is unable to play in Week 17 and Mahomes lays an unexpected egg vs. Denver, Burrow’s odds could shorten closer to a coin-flip entering the final week."

However, Brossman reminds us that Mahomes is a perfect 10-0 SU against the Broncos.

With all that in mind, oddsmakers would certainly love if Burrow found a way to nab the MVP trophy. FOX Bet had Burrow +1300 in July, and on Oct. 11, bettors could’ve gotten the Bengals QB at a healthy +3400. Since then, as noted above, Burrow has moved all the way into +700.

But bettors never really put their faith in Burrow, who is eighth in ticket count and seventh in money at FOX Bet.

"Our biggest liability for MVP, no surprise, is Jalen Hurts," Brossman said. "Burrow would be a nice result for us."

At BetMGM, Burrow opened +1200 and is currently +600, the second choice behind -500 Mahomes. Yet Burrow is just seventh in ticket count and money in BetMGM’s NFL MVP odds market.

Mahomes and Allen are ostensibly in a dead heat atop the ticket count. But Mahomes is solidly No. 1 in money, followed by Allen. Hurts is third in tickets and money.

To put it in perspective, MVP bettors at BetMGM have wagered nine times more money on Mahomes, 6.5 times more money on Allen and 5.5 times more money on Hurts than on Burrow.

Burrow is a winner for the book, no question.

"We would be very happy to see Joe Burrow crowned as MVP," Scott said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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