National Football League

NFL MVP odds: Tom Brady pulling away as Aaron Rodgers leapfrogs Josh Allen

Updated Dec. 7, 2021 8:35 p.m. ET

There is still more than a month left in the NFL season, but the MVP race might very well be decided.

This edition of the "MVP Watch" marks the first time a player has seen his odds improve to shorter than +250, the level set by the previous biggest favorite. And Tom Brady has blown that mark out of the water.

Here are the MVP favorites heading into Week 14, according to FOX Bet's insights, with a breakdown of each candidate's recent play and what is on the horizon.

(Note: All odds current as of Tuesday.)

1. Tom Brady: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lit up the Atlanta Falcons 30-17 in an in-division trip, pushing the MVP favorite's career record against the Dirty Birds to 10-0. Brady completed 74.5% of his 51 pass attempts for 368 yards, four touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 112.2. Sure, Brady's interception resulted in a pick-six, but the league leader in several offensive categories otherwise cruised against the Falcons to extend Tampa Bay's winning streak to three games.

What's next: The Buffalo Bills –– a team Brady is all too familiar with –– come to town in Week 14. During his 20 years as a member of the New England Patriots, Brady put up a 32-3 record against the Bills, throwing 70 touchdowns and 25 interceptions with a passer rating of 97.9. This will be his first time facing them since his move to warmer a clime, however.

What people are saying: "I predicted before the year started that the 44-year-old in Tompa Bay was going to win the MVP and he is doing it right before your very crossed eyes." ⁠— Skip Bayless on Monday's "Undisputed"

2. Aaron Rodgers: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: For better or worse, Rodgers' toe was the talk of the town during the lead-up to a 36-28 victory against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12. After the win, Rodgers told Erin Andrews, "I'm not missing any time" due to the injury. How much recovery took place during the well-timed Week 13 bye for the Green Bay Packers? We'll find out soon, but it's not as though the injury appeared to hamper Rodgers too much, regardless.

What's next: The Packers welcome the Chicago Bears to Lambeau Field on Sunday night. Rodgers has faced his division rivals 26 times in the regular season, posting a 21-5 record against them. In their previous meeting this season, Rodgers completed 73.9% of his passes for 195 yards, two touchdowns and a 128.0 passer rating. If the Packers win Sunday, it will mark the third consecutive year with a season sweep of the Bears for Rodgers.

What people are saying: "Rodgers has been more impressive." ⁠— Shannon Sharpe on Monday's "Undisputed" on the Rodgers vs. Brady debate

3. Josh Allen: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total at FOX Bet)

How it's going: Blustery conditions on Monday night in Buffalo wreaked havoc on the passing game in the Bills' tilt with the New England Patriots. The 14-10 loss dropped Allen to a lifetime 2-4 record against Bill Belichick's team, as Allen completed 50% of his 30 attempts for 145 yards and one touchdown. The biggest blow, however, is that the loss pushed the Bills all the way down to the seventh and final seed in the AFC playoff picture, while the Patriots jumped up to the No. 1 seed.

What's next: Allen gets a chance to reassert his MVP claim with a Week 14 meeting against Brady and the Bucs. Allen has never taken on the defending Super Bowl champions, but he has faced other NFC South opposition in his career. He knocked off the New Orleans Saints by a score of 31-6 on Thanksgiving.

What people are saying: "Josh Allen is not that guy." ⁠— Skip Bayless on Tuesday's "Undisputed" in reaction to Bills vs. Patriots