Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs: It's time to say goodbye

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:07 p.m. ET

Fansided, Lyle Graversen/FanSided via Arrowhead Addict

While the Pro Bowl technically happened yesterday and the Super Bowl is this coming Sunday, for most Kansas City Chiefs fans it is already the offseason.

While the fans of some teams are already anxiously discussing which big name players their team is going to sign in free agency, KC fans should simply be concerned with how General Manager John Dorsey is going to keep this team intact. I’m not going to sugar coat things for you Chiefs fans out there. Kansas City is in BAD shape when it comes to the salary cap next season and because of that it would be wise to come to terms with the fact that they are going to have to cut ties with some players.

In case you don’t believe me or have heard conflicting reports about the Chiefs cap situation for next year let me give you the essentials. I’m using overthecap.com for my salary cap and contract information. In my experience they are the absolute best place around to get that information and I highly recommend that you check them out for yourself.

If you want a simple summary of just how bad their cap situation is, how about this? They just carried over a little over five million dollars in cap space from this season and that gives them just $4.7 million in cap space for next season.

That’s right, before carrying over that money they were actually slightly OVER the cap and that’s without re-signing Eric Berry or Dontari Poe OR signing any of their draft picks from the upcoming draft. That’s not good. In fact, it’s the third worst cap situation in the entire NFL for 2017.

Now, I will say that overthecap.com is using an estimate of $168 million for the cap next year and some “experts” are predicting it may be around $170 million. If that’s the case then it would bump up the cap space to $6.7 million, but sadly in the NFL two million dollars doesn’t make much of a difference.

The bottom line is that the Chiefs are up against the wall in terms of cap space and they really only have a couple of options to clear up significant space. Before I prepare you for which Chiefs are likely done in Kansas City, let’s first discuss who isn’t going anywhere.

Alex Smith

Alex Smith isn’t getting cut, so before any of you even think about saying something in the comments, just stop. I’ll explain more later in this piece, but the bottom line is that Smith isn’t even the quarterback that can save KC the most cap space this coming season. So not only is he the best quarterback on the roster, but cutting him doesn’t even make the most sense financially.

I know some of you will counter with the idea of Smith “taking less money”. Be careful what you wish for there. Usually when players agree to take less money in order to clear up cap space what they are actually doing is deferring that money until later in their contract. This season Smith’s cap number is $16.9 million.

If the Chiefs cut him $7.2 million of that would still count against their cap, meaning they’d only clear $9.7 million by cutting him. Next year, his cap number jumps to $20.6 million, but if they cut him only $3.6 million counts against their cap. So as things stand now they could cut Smith next year with minimal damage to their cap situation.

BUT…..if Smith were to “take less money” this season that money typically gets turned into guaranteed money the following year. So if Smith took his cap number down by $5 million this year it would likely bump the money against the cap if they cut him next season up by that same amount. So if you are a Smith detractor and are hoping this is the last season with Smith as the Chiefs quarterback you should actually be hoping he DOESN’T take a lower cap number this season.

There’s also a player on defense that isn’t going anywhere.

Jan 15, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Tamba Hali (91) is introduced prior to the AFC Divisional playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Tamba Hali

Another player that many KC fans may be quick to suggest for the chopping block is Tamba Hali. While Tamba is one of the most beloved Chiefs on the roster his age, declining production, and bloated $8.5 million cap number for next season might make him an easy target. Here’s the deal though, cutting him makes absolutely zero sense financially.

With how Hali’s deal is structured the Chiefs would actually LOSE a little over $300,000 in cap space if they were to cut Hali this offseason. That’s right, it would cost them more to cut him than to keep him for 2017. So while his age, production, and salary may put a target on his back the math just doesn’t add up when you crunch the numbers.

Hali has been willing to help the team out by taking less money at times in the past, but much like with Alex Smith I don’t think that is the smart play here. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that Hali doesn’t have much left in the tank.

It stinks financially that they can’t do anything with him this season, but they simply have to be able to part ways with him after next season. I can’t fathom him still playing for Kansas City in 2018 at the rate he’s been going. Therefore, like with Smith, you don’t want to push more guaranteed money into the 2018 season.

Hali is set to make $8.5 million again in 2018 but currently only $1.5 million of that would count against the cap if they cut him next offseason. Tamba is one of the all time great Chiefs. The best thing to do is pay him his money this season and give him one last go around and keep yourself in position to move on after that.

Now let’s get to the guys that are likely done in Kansas City.

Dec 15, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) eludes Oakland Raiders cornerback Tracy Porter (23) to score on a 39-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Jamaal Charles

No sense in beating around the bush here, Jamaal Charles is likely done in Kansas City. Look, it hurts me to say it. I love JC as much as any Chiefs fan out there. The guy is probably the best skill position player I have ever watched play in a Chiefs uniform. I believe the guy belongs in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately he may not belong on the Chiefs roster in 2017.

Here’s the bottom line. In today’s NFL, $6 million dollars is a pretty steep salary for a running back. Charles is set to be the seventh-highest paid running back in the NFL next season. He has now hit the dreaded 30-year-old mark for running backs and over the past two seasons he’s averaged just over 40 carries and 200 yards per SEASON. Sadly, he’s also had too many knee surgeries and “procedures” to count at this point. He never could get right this past season coming off knee surgery and ended up having both knees worked on again towards the end of the year.

Maybe there is a chance that Charles has another solid season in him, but that’s a huge gamble at this point and frankly you don’t pay somebody the seventh highest salary at his position just to have a “solid season” and you especially don’t do it just to have him as a rotational guy off the bench. The Chiefs are just too strapped for cap space for that.

I have heard countless fans say that the Chiefs should just wait and see how Charles looks in training camp, but they don’t have the luxury of waiting with their cap situation. The Chiefs have to work on re-signing Eric Berry and Dontari Poe RIGHT NOW, not in August. The Chiefs need to go into the draft in April targeting a new running back that can add some explosion to a run game that fell off in 2016.

I know its hard to come to terms with. I know it sucks. I know we all wanted him to come back healthy and be the old Jamaal that we all watched dominate the NFL. Those days are now in the past and the Chiefs are trying to compete in 2017. They don’t have the cap space to be sentimental. I will always love Jamaal Charles, but the smart thing to do is to cut ties this offseason.

Nov 6, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Nick Foles (4) leaves the field after the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 19-14. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Foles

The Chiefs were smart to sign Nick Foles before the start of this past season. The young guys they had tried to develop just didn’t look ready for the big time and with a roster they believed could compete they needed some insurance should Alex Smith go down. I was a fan of the move at the time but now given the Chiefs cap situation it is time for them to end Foles short stay in Kansas City.

While some Chiefs fans have probably suggested that the Chiefs should save themselves some money by cutting Alex Smith and his huge contract and just start Foles, that actually would hurt KC’s cap numbers this season. While Smith has a bigger cap number this season ($16.9 mil) as I stated earlier the Chiefs would only save $9.7 million by cutting him. Foles however has ZERO guaranteed dollars for 2017. That means the Chiefs would save his entire $10.75 million dollar contract if they cut him. So the bottom line here is that the Chiefs would clear over a million dollars more in cap space by cutting Foles than they would by cutting Smith.

So long, Nick, it was nice knowing you.

This is just a no-brainer to me. The Chiefs clearly need to invest in a rookie quarterback to groom. So they start Smith for one more season while he still has a lot of guaranteed money, cut Foles with no cap hit and draft a rookie early to compete with Tyler Bray for the number two spot this season (and hopefully take over as the starter in 2018). I simply can’t see them paying a back up quarterback over $10 million dollars when they are strapped for cap space and there are no cap penalties for cutting him. This one is a done deal.

Nov 20, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs nose tackle Dontari Poe (92) is introduced before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arrowhead Stadium. Tampa Bay won 19-17. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Dontari Poe

This one I am less sure about. While I’m pretty confident in both Charles and Foles getting cut, I’m still holding out hope that maybe the Chiefs can work something out with Poe. However, even with the space created by cutting those two it may not be enough for the Chiefs to pay huge contracts to both Eric Berry and Dontari Poe.

It is possible that Dorsey could work something out where both players sign big contracts but the first year salary is very small but they get a big signing bonus that would be split up against the cap over the length of the deal. That is pretty common. Still, two huge defensive contracts when they are already paying Justin Houston huge money may be asking a lot.

While I’m aware of all that Poe brings to the Chiefs defense I simply don’t think you can convince me its better to pay him than Eric Berry. Berry is the emotional leader of the entire Chiefs team. He is an All Pro safety and not even a battle with cancer could stop him from being in peak physical condition. While Poe is a physical beast that moves really well for a man his size (he even throws and catches touchdown passes for crying out loud) you can’t forget that he is a 350 pound man that has had back problems.

The Chiefs have huge money tied up in a pass rusher that is now battling knee problems, so can they risk giving Poe a huge long term deal? What if his back becomes a chronic problem? I know its worst case scenario, but if Houston’s knee issues and Poe’s back problems both linger and they’ve paid them both huge contracts it would likely be too much to overcome.

Dec 28, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Allen Bailey (97) is congratulated by nose tackle Dontari Poe (92) after sacking San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) (not pictured) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 19-7. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

You also have to consider that the Chiefs have a solid defensive line group without Poe. They will be getting back both Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey from injury and Chris Jones and to a lesser extent Rakeem Nunez-Roches both looked like play makers this season. While none of those players are true nose tackles, the Chiefs don’t run a three man front all that much anymore.

Often they use two down linemen with the outside linebackers essentially playing more like defensive ends. All four of the returning guys listed above can and have played in those two man fronts. The Chiefs could sign a veteran run-plugger to just put in at nose tackle in situations where they want to stop the run for SIGNIFICANTLY less than it would take to re-sign Dontari Poe.

While I would love to see the big man back in Kansas City next season and am still holding out hope that it could happen, I am also preparing myself for the possibility that he could walk and I think you should be too.

Nov 6, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs punter Dustin Colquitt (2) punts the ball during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 19-14. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Dustin Colquitt

Okay, I don’t think this will likely happen, but as I looked over the Chiefs cuts that could give them the most cap space I felt like Dustin Colquitt should at least get a mention. The Chiefs fantastic punter is due to make $4.9 million next season. That’s a lot of coin for a punter. In fact, it is currently THE HIGHEST punter salary in the NFL for 2017. The Chiefs could clear over four million dollars in cap space if they cut the veteran and intrust special teams guru Dave Toub to find a young replacement.

Again, I don’t think this will happen, but if cutting Colquitt was the difference between signing a key starter on offense or defense I think KC would at least have to consider it.

Finally, I’ll also mention Derrick Johnson briefly. He’s an x-factor here. He’s due about $7.5 million with $5.5 of that guaranteed towards the cap. So they could technically save two million by cutting him, but his injury situation makes this situation less clear. As another all time great Chief I can’t see them just cutting ties while he’s injured and ending things on a bad note. Could he retire? Could they come to some kind of injury settlement? It’s hard to say how that would impact his cap number for 2017 so that’s why I didn’t include him in this post.

So there you have it Chiefs fans, my list of players that you should be prepared to see leave KC this offseason. What do you think? Am I crazy for including any of these guys? Is there anyone you would have added to the list? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!