New York Jets

Jets at Steelers: Odds, trends and more

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

The Pittsburgh Steelers are worthy seven-point favorites at home to the New York Jets in Week 5.

It’s a suitable line after the Steelers served notice to the AFC by beating the Kansas City Chiefs 43-14 last week. Their powerful offense can spell trouble for a Jets defense struggling to live up to its talent level.

A combination of a high-powered Pittsburgh attack and a floundering Jets D’ explains the 48.5 over/under put on the game by OddsShark. But some of the trends indicate bettors would be safer targeting the under.

As Joe Osborne of OddsShark notes: “The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Jets’ last 15 games against the Steelers.” Covering the spread may also be a problem for a Steelers team “4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.”

Odds

Line: PIT (-7)

Over/Under: 48.5

Of course, this game could quickly get away from the Jets if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick continues hurling interceptions at an alarming rate. He’s tossed nine in his last two starts and 10 for the season.

More mistakes under center will only increase the pressure on an under-fire New York defense. Jets fans have the right to expect more from a unit featuring linemen Leonard Williams, Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, as well as linebacker David Harris and cornerback Darrelle Revis.

Inexplicably, head coach Todd Bowles has struggled to find the right formula to let his players flourish, despite possessing a keen defensive mind. Bowles has fallen too much in love with the playmakers along his D-line.

The result is a defense living or dying on the success of its front four. There’s none of the chic max. pressure calls Bowles used to make his reputation as a former defensive coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals.

However, Bowles will need to show Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger something new. He’s throwing to a deep stable of receivers led by Antonio Brown, while DeAngelo Williams and Le’Veon Bell also form a devastating one-two punch on the ground.

The Jets have to shut down at least one phase of the most diverse attack in the NFL. Bettors casting an eye over the statistical matchup will know something’s got to give when, per Osborne:

The Steelers passing attack has averaged 261.75 yards per game, less than the Jets give up through the air (285 YPG on average).

Defensively, the New York Jets feature the league’s No. 6-rated road run defense, allowing 79 yards per game. The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, ranks No. 9 in rushing offense at home.

Yet the real numbers matchup that matters figures to be the Steelers’ fourth-ranked rush defense against the New York’s 11th-ranked ground game.

Matt Forte is the workhorse of choice in the Jets’ backfield, but he averaged just 1.9 yards on 14 carries against the admittedly rugged Seattle Seahawks last week. Bowles and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey need their line to do a better job against an imposing Steelers defensive front, led by Cameron Heyward, who had three sacks against the Chiefs.

If the Jets can control the clock and keep Roethlisberger and Co. waiting, the under will begin to look like a very good bet. It’ll look stronger still if Bowles’ D’ finally shows up.