Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos: Friday Fact or Fiction

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:05 p.m. ET

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Nov 27, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Dante Fowler (56) hits Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) after a throws pass during the second half at New Era Field. Buffalo defeated Jacksonville 28-21. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars host one of the best defenses in the league this Sunday, but they might have a chance against a possibly undermanned Denver Broncos unit.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are sitting at 2-9 and there isn’t a game on the schedule left that makes you think “the Jaguars could win that one.”

Still, it’s hard to fathom that a team as talented as the 2016 Jacksonville Jaguars could finish 2-14. It might happen because Gus Bradley has shown us he’s disturbingly effective at guiding his team to losses, but this roster has no business losing 14 games in one year.

With all that in mind, it’s hard to look at this Sunday’s matchup against the Denver Broncos with a ton of hope. The Jacksonville offense has been dysfunctional on it’s own, but now they have to try and generate points against a ferocious pass rush and perhaps the best overall secondary in the league. The Jaguars were able to poach away Malik Jackson in free agency – one of the best defensive tackles in the league – and the Broncos are still loaded! Von Miller is the best pass rusher in the league, and Shane Ray and DeMarcus Ware are pretty good in their own right.

The Jacksonville defense has been good in recent weeks and they could catch a break if the Broncos have to start Paxton Lynch over an injured Trevor Siemian. Lynch has a ton of raw tools but he looked overwhelmed in his only start this year (a loss). I wouldn’t put it past the Jaguars to lose to a rookie quarterback, but it does tip the odds almost inconsequentially in their favor.

So what’s going to actually happen when the Jaguars host the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday? Will they play well or continue to embarrassing themselves? Click ahead to see my “rock solid” predictions:

Sep 13, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) comes off the field altering throwing his second interception during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at EverBank Field. The Panthers defeat the Jaguars 20-9. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Blake Bortles will not throw an interception: FICTION

This is my attempt to make sure I get at least one correct prediction this week. Also it’s basically a double negative and I don’t care.

Blake Bortles has been really bad this season. So bad that he’s actually appeared at 32 in some quarterback rankings at points during the 2016 season. Gregg Rosenthal over at NFL.com does a QB Index every week and he had Bortles at 32 at the midseason point…

Benching Bortles would be an act of mercy if this continues any longer. You can almost hear all the conflicting noise in his head as he winds up to throw each fastball. I had him higher than Stafford or Carr going into the season, which was a terrible misevaluation — but it also serves as a reminder that Bortles has shown off his incredible natural ability at times as a pro. He can be fixed, but it’s hard to see that happening without some sort of break. He’s lost at the moment.

then at 31 after the loss to the Houston Texans…

It is still jarring to rank Bortles this low, and Osweiler is eventually going to risk losing his job to Tom Savage.

And then Bortles rocketed up to 29 after last week’s almost encouraging effort against the Buffalo Bills!

It’s the worst kept secret at this point that Bortles is not playing well at all, and that includes a penchant for throwing costly interceptions. He actually avoided the big turnover last week (and the Jaguars still found a way to lose) but that’s an aberration at this point. Bortles is going up against Von Miller and a very good secondary. I expect at least 2 interceptions.

Nov 13, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Houston Texans strong safety Quintin Demps (27) grabs the leg of Jacksonville Jaguars running back T.J. Yeldon (24) during the second quarter of a football game at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

T.J. Yeldon will average more than 3 yards a carry: FACT

With Chris Ivory out, the Jaguars are destined to score very few points and generate an embarrassingly low yardage total. Bortles will have his struggles which will put increased pressure on T.J. Yeldon to carry the load.

And you know what? I think Yeldon will do OK.

A 3 yard per carry average is a pretty low bar to set, but it’s probably the best you can hope for given Yeldon’s struggle as a runner, the play of the offensive line, and the Broncos defense.

Actually, the Broncos are giving up 4.3 yards per carry on defense, good for 20th in the league. For a point of comparison, the Jaguars are only giving up 4.2 yards per carry.

My other assumption in this prediction is that Yeldon won’t get too much work. He’s also a bit dinged up and fought through an ankle injury last week, but I think he’ll still get around 7-10 carries and he’ll be effective. The rest of the workload will go to Denard Robinson…

Sep 25, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue (91) and defensive tackle Malik Jackson (90) react prior to a play against the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth quarter at EverBank Field. Baltimore Ravens won 19-17. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Yannick Ngakoue will have a sack: FACT

It’s a shining light in a dark tunnel for us Jaguars fans to see the third overall pick becoming a dominant pass rusher before our very eyes!

Oh wait, Yannick Ngakoue was a 3rd round pick? And Dante Fowler was the one who was picked third overall?

Nah.

Let’s just keep thinking the opposite is true because that’s exactly how these two young defenders are playing. Fowler has been good against the run but his ability to rush the passer is at around a second grade level and he’s playing alongside guys with Masters degrees. Fowler (or Fouler if you prefer) still hasn’t quite figured out the spin move, unless his objective actually is to spin right into the offensive tackles chest for a solid bear hug.

Ngakoue on the other hand looks exceedingly quick, has terrific bend, and his technique is already refined. He should nab another sack this week against a bad Denver offensive line.

I’m not going to pick the Jaguars to win, just in case you were waiting with bated breath. I’m not going to pick them to win the rest of the year, even if they win the next 4 games. I don’t see how you can justify it, even with Siemian out. The Jaguars just won’t be able to score that many points.

I don’t think the Broncos explode offensively, but they’ll do enough and get some help in the form of a defensive touchdown.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 6 – Broncos 20