Dallas Cowboys

Is Ezekiel Elliott breaking the rookie rushing record a bad thing?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Would Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott breaking the NFL rookie rushing record actually be a bad thing for the team’s postseason plans?

Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is leading the NFL in rushing yardage after ten weeks. According to Elliott, that’s what was expected. Being the fourth overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft, and playing behind the Cowboys dominate offensive line, he was supposed to be this good.

Through the Cowboys first nine games, Elliott has rushed for 1,005 yards and nine touchdowns on 198 carries. That’s an average of 5.1 yards per carry, which is tied for third highest average in the NFL.

If the 21-year old continues at this pace, he’ll finish the season with 1,787 total rushing yards. The NFL rookie record for rushing yards in a season is 1,808 by former Los Angeles Rams running back Eric Dickerson back in 1983. It took the player known as “Mr. Fourth Quarter” 390 carries in order to set that mark.

Elliott certainly has a chance to break Dickerson’s record with seven games to go this season. But the now 56-year old Hall of Famer doesn’t think that will happen.

“Zeke does a great job of picking and choosing his holes, he really does,” Dickerson told ESPN’s SportsCenter according to USA Today. “And the offensive line, they stopped everybody at the line of scrimmage. But is he gonna break that record? No, he ain’t gonna break that record. That record’s safe…I’d be happy for him, I really would. But that’s not gonna happen.”

Obviously, Dickerson has time on his side. The league has seen plenty of talented rookie running backs in the past 33-years. None of whom have been able to break Dickerson’s record.

But maybe the better question is it a good thing for the Cowboys as a team if Elliott does break that record? Undoubtedly one of the reasons Dickerson’s record still stands is the fact many first-year players, who are not yet used to the NFL grind, hit a rookie wall. And fatigue is a real issue. Especially if your team, like the 8-1 Cowboys, has aspirations of making a deep playoff run.

The Cowboys coaching staff has made a concerted effort to spell Elliott during games, sidelining him for entire drives with two-time Pro Bowl running back Alfred Morris, whom they signed as a free agent this offseason. But Morris is only averaging around six carries a game. And with those limited touches he’s been relatively ineffective, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry.

At this pace, averaging 22 carries a game, Elliott will have a total of 392 carries by the end of the regular season. That’s the exact same amount former Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray had in 2014 when he rushed for a league-leading 1,845 yards on the ground.

If Dallas plans on winning in the postseason, they’ll need Elliott in order to do so. Running him nearly 400 times before the playoffs even begin is likely not the wisest strategy. So if Zeke is going to break Dickerson’s rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards, he’ll likely have to do so with less carries, not more.