National Football League

Green Bay Packers: Week 9 fantasy football profile

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Week 8 brought us back to what we have been missing from the Green Bay Packers.

After over a year of the offense feeling somewhat disjointed at best — and flabbergastingly stifled at worst — we got to see Aaron Rodgers lead his group to their best full-game performance seemingly since 2014.

Unfortunately, the defense showed us some pre-2015 form as well, giving up 33 points while failing to force pressure or turnovers against an elite Atlanta offense in an last-minute defeat.

Still, for a loss, there are plenty of positive signs we can take away from last week’s action, and the prospects look good for this team as they start to pass the midway point of their season.

Up next: a limited Indianapolis Colts team which is coming off one of their worst performances of the year, bringing with them a one-trick pony of an offense and an awful defense which looks to be missing some of its best players.

How does that stack up for Green Bay’s multitude of weaponry, fantasy-wise?

Disclaimer: For any fantasy scoring numbers, I will be using those generated by Yahoo! fantasy football. It is the system on which I’ve played a majority of my fantasy football over the years – and currently play. Other setups are fine – I’ve worked with ESPN and NFL fantasy football teams in the past – but seeing as I have the most experience using this scoring system, I’ll stick with using their methods of scoring.

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the first quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

QB – Aaron Rodgers

Week 8 Statistics:

28/38, 246 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 60 rushing yards, 1 2pt conversion; 33.84 fantasy points

For most of the past couple seasons, Aaron Rodgers has not been producing at the level we came to expect of him. Sure, we still would see magical plays, but they were much further and far between than ever before, and he seemed to struggle at times with completing seemingly routine tosses with accuracy.

After the past eight quarters, any doubts we’ve had are finally starting to get alleviated.

Though the offense didn’t start putting points until the second half of the Bears game in Week 7, the Packers were putting their current offensive gameplan to work. In that half the offense scored just two field goals, but Rodgers went 20/31 passing for 155 yards, while also picking up free yardage on three plays that would have been incompletions but were Chicago penalties which prevented them.

The team also came up just short on TD chances on their final two drives, which would have boosted the stature of the offense’s (and Rodgers’) performance: Ty Montgomery was stuffed at the goal-line on 4th down following a drive where Rodgers went 6/8 for 43 yards (plus a Chicago penalty on a pass attempt), and then Randall Cobb was unable to get his second foot down on Green Bay’s final drive of the half (Rodgers went 4/8 for 44 yards, with a sack, a Chicago penalty for free yardage, and an excellent throw which Cobb just couldn’t finish off).

Following that half — and the unfortunate strip-sack TD to start their first drive — Rodgers stepped up to an even greater extent (19/25 for 171 yards and 3 TDs) to end the night with the most completions in a single game he’s ever had. Then, despite even more injuries sapping away his weaponry prior to the Atlanta game — a matchup where everyone knew his offense would have to score in bunches to win — he kept his rhythm going.

Green Bay scored on four of their first five drives en route to a 24-19 halftime lead, and despite slowing down in the second half Rodgers led the offense on what could have been a game-winning drive with his 4th TD pass of the afternoon (with a successful 2-pt conversion run to boot) to put the Packers up 32-26.

He did get one final chance to try stealing the game at the end, but between the lack of time remaining (:31 left, though with two timeouts) and some unluckiness (Jordy Nelson came up hurt on a second down incompletion, costing the Packers a down as well as a timeout; he wasn’t on the same page with Davante Adams on the final throw) the comeback fell short.

Despite the bad ending to the game, Rodgers has been proving once again that he’s able to perform at a high level, and the Colts are a perfect matchup to keep things going.

The Colts are 29th in total yards allowed per game, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, and 28th in points allowed per game. They’ve garnered just 14 sacks (tied-21st in NFL), have allowed 14 TD passes (tied-22nd), have a measly 2 INTs (32nd), give opposing QBs a passer rating of 103.1 (30th) on 66.8 completion percentage (29th) and 7.9 yards per attempt (23rd).

Delving deeper, Indianapolis comes into this game ranked as the second-worst defense in terms of Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metric; against the pass specifically, they are #29. Going by Pro Football Focus’ player grades, not a single player even reaches an 80 (above-average) on their scale, and at least six of the expected defensive starters grade out far below average.

Add in that their best cornerback (Vontae Davis) is questionable to play, their best pass rusher (Robert Mathis) is far beyond his prime, and every level of their defense is filled with old and/or ineffective players, and Rodgers has a great chance to top his showing from last week regardless of who else makes it on the field with him offensively.

Week 9 Prediction:

300 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 35 rush yards; 27.50 fantasy points

Verdict: Continuing his strong rhythm

Next: Running backs

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Green Bay Packers fullback Aaron Ripkowski (22) is stopped by Atlanta Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen (37) in the fourth quarter of their game at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 33-32. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

RB – Don Jackson, Aaron Ripkowski

Week 8 Statistics:

Jackson – 4 carries, 10 rushing yards; 1.00 fantasy pointsRipkowski – 6 carries, 34 rushing yards, 1 catch, -1 receiving yards; 3.30 fantasy points

While this hasn’t been a productive spot on the roster lately (against Atlanta, Rodgers himself led the team in rushing with under half the rushing opportunities his backs combined for), it is worth discussing for at least a few reasons.

I’ll start with the roster move this past week. Knile Davis — who Green Bay only acquired a couple weeks before — was unceremoniously cut (and then got even more unceremoniously cut by the Jets right after signing), leaving this spot even more barren of options. The good news is he wasn’t producing in his limited snaps though, so the team doesn’t lose anything despite the lack of depth.

Left behind him for carries and snaps now is actually more wide receivers than running backs. We’ve seen both Montgomery and Cobb line up in the backfield this year when healthy, but without them both we saw Davante Adams running routes from the backfield instead of pure runners getting the call. With Cobb and Montgomery back, I would expect both to take over those Adams-back looks, but it is a distinct possibility now to see Davante put there again in an effort to use more of the team’s wide receiver depth to Green Bay’s advantage.

These two probably will see some snaps in more conventional looks here and there, but until the Packers prove they want to use these guys more you should stay far away.

The only minor caveat I would give to this sentiment is that Ripkowski has shown great power and effort behind the few opportunities he’s gotten, and he could vulture a short-yardage TD at some point. Green Bay currently has just two rushing TDs on the year — both by Rodgers — and trends like that rarely continue for a full year.

If your RB spot is looking desolate and can’t find anything else on the scrap heap– especially in a deep league — Ripkowski may be the kind of last-ditch emergency effort who gives you a TD in a game where his offense should be moving the ball at will.

Week 9 Prediction:

Jackson – 25 rushing yards; 2.50 fantasy pointsRipkowski – 10 rushing yards; 1.00 fantasy points

Verdicts: Long shot injury replacement (Jackson); possible vulture (Ripkowski)

Next: Wide receivers

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) runs past Atlanta Falcons strong safety Keanu Neal (22) after a catch during the first quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

WRs – Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis, Geronimo Allison

Week 8 Statistics:

Nelson – 4 catches (9 targets), 94 receiving yards, 1 TD; 15.40 fantasy pointsCobb – N/A (missed due to injury)Adams – 12 catches (14 targets), 74 receiving yards; 7.40 fantasy pointsMontgomery – N/A (missed due to injury)Janis – 4 catches (4 targets), 30 receiving yards, 1 TD; 9.00 fantasy pointsDavis – 3 catches (4 targets), 24 receiving yards, 1 TD; 8.40 fantasy pointsAllison – 2 catches (4 targets), 21 receiving yards, 1 TD; 8.10 fantasy points

Oh boy, there’s so much to go through here.

With both Cobb and Montgomery ending up as scratches for last week, Green Bay delved all the way into their bin of receiving talent; somehow, they got a decent showing out of every single one of them.

Nelson was able to break out of a recent slump for his best showing since Week 3, picking up his 2nd-most yardage on the year and his first TD catch in three weeks. He even broke through the deep coverage of the Falcons to catch a deep pass down the middle — something sorely lacking from this offense since 2014. He came down with an injury on the final drive, but he isn’t on the injury report now so it won’t be a problem going forward.

I mentioned earlier about Adams lining up in the backfield for some routes, but he was everywhere. His yardage wasn’t stellar and he didn’t score, but he is really becoming a go-to guy Rodgers can trust on every down to make a play. He’s now led the Packers in targets and receptions the past two games (setting multiple Packers’ receiving records in the process) and it doesn’t seem like he’ll slow down anytime soon.

Due to Cobb and Montgomery’s absences, Janis, Davis, and Allison each saw season-highs for offensive snaps, and each made multiple plays in their time on the field. Janis caught all four targets sent his way, Davis caught a few passes (as well as making a 55-yard punt return), and Allison — fresh off the practice squad — grabbed a couple passes of his own. Each guy also caught a TD pass.

This week, I’m expecting we’ll return back to more of what we are used to personnel-wise, but keep your eyes on the injury report.

Nelson should do fine whether or not if Davis plays. I expect more of the same in terms of coverage scheme the team has seen from defenses for the past year (i.e.: two safeties deep, blocking off big plays), but he can work on mid-range routes and makes some decent gains while probably finding his way to a TD.

Adams should continue his high-target ways regardless of what happens with his fellow wideouts’ health status, and having more of his routes likely to be lined up at receiver again (as well as a defense even less equipped to handle any kind of receiving threat) should mean he can bust out a few bigger plays with those opportunities than he could against Atlanta.

It may be a bit much to expect yet another double-digit reception game, but he should definitely push towards that barring a coverage shift specifically to take him away (though, based on the opponent, doesn’t seem like it would make much of a difference anyway).

Montgomery was working in full pads at practice this week, so all signs point to him returning to the field. Assuming he does he should be in the same type of role we saw from him against Chicago: a runner-receiver who gets 15-20 combined rushes/targets.

Cobb is less of a lock right now (the latest update I saw had him limited in practice), but barring a setback it feels like he should be out there. If he does, I’d keep my expectations low for now given the damage the other three above him should be doing, but he can’t be discounted with such a favorable matchup.

If Cobb can’t go however, the Janis/Davis/Allison trio should see another boost snaps — and with it, a jump in opportunities. Each adds a nice dash of explosiveness to the equation and could all probably have strong games if given the chance.

With my expectation of Cobb playing I’d say limit your hopes for them, but if something negative happens between now and game-time with Cobb’s status, any one of them could be a last-ditch effort to secure some points for your team.

Of the three, Janis would be the first up for snaps based on his work against Atlanta (58 snaps for Janis, compared to 36 and 19 for Davis and Allison, respectively), but Davis seems to have the most dynamic speed of them all. He also has emerged as a threat on his punt returns (evidence by his 55-yarder against the Falcons); combine his work there with his threat as a receiver and it makes him the more viable option in my eyes for an emergency-play situation.

Week 9 Predictions:

Nelson – 6 catches, 75 receiving yards, 1 TD; 4.50 fantasy pointsCobb – 4 catches, 35 receiving yards; 3.50 fantasy pointsAdams – 9 catches, 115 receiving yards, 1 TD; 17.50 fantasy pointsMontgomery – 7 catches, 55 receiving yards, 35 rushing yards; 15.00 fantasy pointsJanis – 1 catch, 5 receiving yards; 0.50 fantasy pointsDavis – 1 catch, 15 receiving yards, 1 TD; 7.50 fantasy pointsAllison – 0 catches, 0 receiving yards; 0.00 fantasy points

Verdicts: Strong Showing (Nelson); Slow Return (Cobb); High-Usage Target (Adams); Two-Way Option — If Healthy (Montgomery); Lowered Snaps, Little Production (Janis); Speedy Threat (Davis); Too Many Ahead Of Him (Allison)

Next: Tight ends

Jul 28, 2016; Green Bay,WI, USA; Green Bay Packers tight end Richard Rodgers (82) participates in drills during the training camp across from Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/ via USA TODAY Sports

TE – Richard Rodgers

Week 8 Statistics:

Rodgers – 0 catches, 0 receiving yards; 0.00 fantasy points

I’ll try to keep this one quick.

After putting up a lackluster 9 catches (17 targets) for 84 yards and a TD across the first seven games, Rodgers was on the field for only 26 snaps (2nd-lowest of the season) and received zero targets as the Packers spread out the field with their handful of wide receiver options.

As Green Bay continues to heavily emphasize the quick passing game, he should continue to see little-to-no usage, regardless of how bad Indianapolis is at defending over the middle.

With the short passing game, a big part of it finding success relies on the receiver creating yardage after the catch. Whether through speed (to blaze past defenders), strength (to bowl straight through them), elusiveness (to make would-be tacklers miss), or some combination of all three, the player catching the ball must be able to get beyond the oncoming opponents; if they cannot, the effectiveness of this sort of attack is massively capped.

While Rodgers does usually have decent hands when thrown to, has shown he cannot really do any of the aforementioned things at all, much less with any consistency. He can’t gain separation — much less outrun anyone. He isn’t agile, so he can’t make people miss. And since I’m still waiting for the day I can chalk up a broken tackle to his tally three years into his career, he’s probably not busting through anyone.

I do feel bad that this section has basically just been me ripping into Rodgers for practically two years running, but it remains so frustrating to see a spot which used to be the fulcrum of Green Bay’s offensive gameplan in years past fall so dramatically short of that game after game — especially when having a quality option over the middle could have helped to fix many of the recent ills the unit has experienced long ago.

I do think he still could be a decent contributor in certain ways, but he has to perform better before he can put the doubters to shame. Until I see some meager sign of that however, I can’t help but keep my expectations in the absolute basement regarding him.

Week 9 Predictions:

Rodgers – 0 catches, 0 receiving yards; 0.00 fantasy points

Verdict: Not Worth Any Thought

Next: Kicker

Oct 9, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby (2) during the game against the New York Giants at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 23-16. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

K – Mason Crosby

Week 8 Statistics: 3/3 PATs, 1/1 FGs (Made: 29); 6.00 fantasy points

Crosby was back at his usual reliable level last week; he made all of his kicks, a week after missing not only his first field goal attempt of the year but his first extra point kick since the 2015 rule changes.

That’s great news on many levels, one of which is for those fantasy players who have him on their roster.

With Crosby quickly putting his misses behind him, any small doubts that may have creeped in should be officially defunct; there’s nothing wrong with his leg nor his confidence. Even better, he has a major opportunity for putting up points.

Green Bay’s offense should be moving the ball with ease on the Colts. The better an offense is performing, the better a kicker’s odds of getting some kicking chances.

I’m thinking Green Bay will manage to score TDs most of the time — which would limit Crosby’s overall ceiling here — but considering even the best offenses don’t reach the endzone on every drive (and low-time opportunities before the end of halves also should be factored in as well), the odds are Crosby will get at least one field goal try.

I’m predicting a couple. Add those with a handful of extra points following the expected TDs, and this lines up to be a great showing from the leg of Green Bay’s reliable kicker.

Week 9 Prediction: 2 FGs (1 20-29, 1 40-49 yards), 4 XPs; 11.00 fantasy points

Verdict: Better Production

Next: Packers D/ST

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Julius Peppers (56) sacks Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Packers 33-32. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Defense

Week 8 Statistics: 33 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks; 1.00 fantasy points

I hope nobody needed to use this defense last week.

Not only was it a bad matchup, but it got even worse with Clay Matthews getting added to the endless injury list. Adding the team’s big-name pass rushing threat to a secondary missing their top three cornerbacks ended up about as well as you would expect: 33 points allowed, including what became a game-winning drive.

Last week saw a defense which had done a pretty impressive job at covering up its deficiencies through scheme decisions get taken apart by secondary and tertiary options through the air. Julio Jones was held to a quiet afternoon (3 catches, 29 yards), but the adjustments to prevent him from blowing apart an undermanned unit himself let guys like Taylor Gabriel (3 catches, 68 yards, 1 TD; includes a 47 yarder where he beat his man deep) and Mohamed Sanu (9 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD; 5 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD on the game-winning drive) have favorable matchups.

What the Packers (and fantasy owners playing them) had to be banking on was their pass rush busting things up on the line, but outside of one drive (where they got two straight sacks), they never even laid a hand on Matt Ryan.

This week should be a much more capable endeavor for them.

For one thing, they should be somewhat healthier. Demetri Goodson came down with a concussion from last week’s game, but it appears Quinten Rollins might be able to return to action, giving Green Bay one of their top corner options back. Matthews sounds like he should be able to return as well at this point too, so the pass rush will have a boost as well.

Even if one or both somehow doesn’t suit up though, this matchup looks enticing for the Packers’ defense.

Andrew Luck has put his ugly 2015 behind him to return to his high-level ways most of this year, but he’s coming off his worst performance of the season. He only completed 54.3% of his passes for 210 yards, an interception, a fumble, 6 sacks, and a 19.8 QBR in a 30-14 loss to Kansas City.

You shouldn’t put too much of the blame on him, however; he doesn’t have much to work with on his team. Not only does his defense force him into a shootout practically every game, but he doesn’t exactly have a strong array of weaponry or blockers.

Luck’s receiving corps is possibly one of the worst collective groups in the league. He does have T.Y. Hilton, but outside of him, the roster is pretty bleak. Donte Moncrief may be his 2nd-best target, but he’s limited at-best and his best year saw him only garner 733 yards in a wide-open passing game.

Dwayne Allen has previously been a good pass catcher, but he’s missed multiple weeks to injury and might not even play (and even if he does, he hasn’t shown off his abilities with any consistency in a couple years). Phillip Dorsett is a former 1st round pick, but has yet to show anything close to that talent.

The only other receiver with 100+ snaps is Chester Rogers, but he’s more a warm body than an actual contributor. Oh, and though he has Frank Gore in the backfield — much better than the flotsam trotted out there earlier in Luck’s career — he is nowhere near the player he used to be.

Somehow, miraculously, his offensive line is worse. Guard Jack Mewhort actually played decently most of this year, but has been out injured for multiple weeks; without him, guards Joe Haeg and Denzelle Good have been atrocious. Anthony Castonzo has done a decent job at left tackle, but he’s beatable; his right tackle counterpart, Joe Reitz, has been Haeg/Good-level awful. His rookie center Ryan Kelly could be good in time, but he’s struggled as well so far.

All this adds up to what should be a pretty strong recovery effort for this Green Bay defense.

The defensive line should be able to shut down the underwhelming rushing efforts of Gore (outside of the debacle against Dallas’ league-best rushing offense, Green Bay has continued to shut down every rushing attack they’ve faced). The edge rushers should have a field day — especially whoever lines up against Reitz on the right side — while the Colts’ guards will be hard-pressed to slow the efforts of Mike Daniels and Co breaking through the middle to collapse Luck’s pocket.

The back end may end up giving up some plays here and there (right now, the Packers have no healthy bodies at cornerback behind the Rollins/LaDarius Gunter/Micah Hyde trio), but that damage should be capped by more scheme adjustments to involve Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and help prevent Hilton — remember: Indianapolis’ only quality receiver — from bursting through for big gains.

The final tally on the scoreboard may be boosted through a garbage-time TD, but there should be enough chances for sacks and turnovers (the defense has been lacking them so far this year; that’s bound to change) to make up for any meaningless points which get tacked on towards the end.

Week 9 Prediction:

17 Points Against, 4 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery; 9.00 fantasy points

Verdict: A Healthier Effort