National Football League

Green Bay Packers: Week 8 fantasy football profile

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter during the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. The Packers beat the Bears 26-10. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Disclaimer: For any fantasy scoring numbers, I will be using those generated by Yahoo! fantasy football. It is the system on which I’ve played a majority of my fantasy football over the years – and currently play. Other setups are fine – I’ve worked with ESPN and NFL fantasy football teams in the past – but seeing as I have the most experience using this scoring system, I’ll stick with using their methods of scoring.

Week 7 started off with the Green Bay Packers facing off against their rival Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. The game didn’t begin pretty, but the Packers came across some things in the second half on offense which were able to jump-start their attack — facets which they are likely to continue looking towards in the coming weeks.

Week 8 brings a road contest against the Atlanta Falcons, a team capable of putting up points in bunches (32.7 points per game; 1st in NFL) but also quite capable of giving up just as many (28.4 ppg; 27th).

How do Green Bay’s particular matchups in this game shape up for the fantasy crowd?

I’ll start with the quarterback.

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) gets a pass away in the fourth quarter during the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

QB – Aaron Rodgers

Week 7 Statistics:

39/56, 326 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 7 rushing yards; 23.74 fantasy points

After seeming to continue his struggles from 2015 throughout most of this season so far, it had to feel good for Packers fans to see the offense manage to perform with at least some consistency in the second half versus the Bears.

Those criticizing him coming in may have been somewhat overzealous in their declarations (myself included), but it was truly concerning to see him miss on handfuls of throws that were simply routine for him pre-2015. One game doesn’t fix all that, but a formula of sorts may have presented itself, even without a reliable running game.

Following a fumble return TD by Chicago which put Green Bay down 10-6, the Packers moved fully into an attack focused heavily on quick, short throws. Behind this, the issues of separation which continued to plague Rodgers’ receivers in coverage were minimized to a degree, letting them get the ball in their hands relatively quickly and try to make something happen.

In this style, Rodgers managed his fourth game of the season under 6.00 yards per attempt on his throws, but he had his most productive game in terms of yardage (326) since Week 10 of 2016 while picking up his first 3+ TD pass game since Week 9 of last year — and first without an INT since Week 3 of that year. He also managed the most single-game completions of his career (39) and was just under 70% in completion percentage despite having the second-highest single-game pass attempts of his career (56).

With both the injury issues in the backfield and his receivers likely to continue struggling to get separation, this plan of attack seems to be what the Packers will continue to go with for awhile — and it should work again here versus Atlanta.

The Falcons defense has a couple nice contributors — Desmond Trufant continues to be an underrated-yet-great cornerback, and Dwight Freeney is still destructive as a situational pass rusher — but are still nowhere near the kind of unit an offense should fear. Going by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, the Falcons rank 26th in Defensive DVOA through seven weeks; specifically against the pass and run, they are 24th and 21st, respectively. Comparing that to the other defenses Green Bay has faced already, only Detroit is lower overall and versus the pass.

Combine those defensive shortcomings with the recent success in the short passing game — another area Atlanta has struggled (26th in Defensive DVOA versus short passes) — and everything is setting up for another good outing from Rodgers.

Week 8 Prediction:

250 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 20 rush yards; 23.50 fantasy points

Verdict: More Of What We’re Used To

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Knile Davis (30) rushes with the football during the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 26-10. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

RB – Knile Davis

Week 7 Statistics:

Davis – 2 carries, 1 rushing yard; 0.10 fantasy points

Some may be wondering why only Davis is here, what with Ty Montgomery getting a ton of snaps from the backfield the past couple weeks and it being a pretty noteworthy announcement this past week that he would now be listed as a WR/RB hybrid in certain fantasy models. As of now however, the main hub for my fantasy use is the Yahoo leagues, who have not given him that designation; due to that, he will remain in the wide receiver bracket for my analysis.

With no Montgomery here, it is left to Davis. I could include Don Jackson here again, but with his hand injury I’m leery of expecting anything of note out of him until he can show it won’t be an issue going forward.

With Davis, I probably jumped the gun somewhat in my expectations with him. He’s still too new to the offense to expect much, but with no other pure running options (depending on Jackson’s hand) it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a larger workload handed to him — especially as he has more time to acclimate himself to the playbook.

This week I expect a lot of Montgomery in the backfield again, but the Packers could feel comfortable enough (more due to the injury circumstances at the position than anything, but still) to look to Davis on a few drives to attempt some semblence of a conventional rushing attack.

Keep your expectations low for now, but a couple nice runs wouldn’t be out of the question should the opportunity arise for Davis.

Week 8 Prediction:

Davis – 35 rushing yards, 1 catch, 5 yards, 1 TD; 4.00 fantasy points

Verdict: Keep Expectations Low

WRs – Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery

Week 7 Statistics:

Nelson – 1 catch (4 targets), 9 receiving yards; 0.90 fantasy pointsCobb – 11 catches (15 targets), 95 receiving yards, 5 rushes, 21 rushing yards, 1 TD; 17.60 fantasy pointsAdams – 13 catches (16 targets), 132 receiving yards, 2 TDs; 25.20 fantasy pointsMontgomery – 10 catches (13 targets), 66 receiving yards, 9 rushes, 60 rushing yards; 12.60 fantasy points

Quite a surprising showing from these guys last week.

Cobb, Adams, and Montgomery each saw double-digit catches in wholly different roles, while the usual top man of this group (Jordy) was unable to get anything going.

Montgomery was the biggest story, showing up in a high-usage role as a pass-catcher from the backfield to gather in 19 different touches resulting in 126 yards. It was his rush up the middle for 30 yards following the fumble-TD by the Bears which sparked the offense into a rhythm, but he was an integral part of the game even prior to that. When the Packers had a 4th & goal from the Chicago 1 yard line, Green Bay turned to Montgomery to get the score up the middle; it failed, but his place in the offensive gameplan was set, and given continued chances he provided positive output for the team.

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) scores a touchdown on a reception while being covered by Chicago Bears cornerback DeVante Bausby (20) during the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY Sports

Adams’ role was arguably more meaningful, if less multi-faceted in his usage. With Nelson struggling (whether due to health of coverage), Adams stepped up for a historic night. His first TD catch was the kind of close-quarters, highlight-reel grab the networks love to show over and over, and he continued to make plays with guys right on him all night on the way to the first-ever 10+ receptions/100+ yards/2 TD game at Lambeau Field.

While those two were making the more memorable showing, Cobb just did what he’s always done at his best: carve up a defense underneath. His contributions included his third-straight 11+ target game, and he was close to having multiple TDs (had he gotten his other foot down on an endzone pass in the first half).

This week the gameplan the team likely wants to go with would see those three be huge contributors again, but it is worth giving some pause when building your fantasy lineups. Both Cobb and Montgomery have come down with maladies to get themselves listed as questionable; if one or both are hobbled or even miss the contest, it changes everything dramatically for the Packers.

Right now, even a healthy Jordy likely won’t see too much focus; Trufant is likely to see a ton of time lined up against him, and that should nullify his impact to an extent. If Cobb and Montgomery can play — and without hindrance — Rodgers can let the targets for Nelson come more naturally within the flow of the offense and the defensive coverages thrown his way; if Cobb and/or Montgomery can’t go however, Jordy’s going to be needed for a much bigger role regardless of who is on him.

Regardless of the other players though, Adams should be poised for another hugely important showing. Depending what Atlanta does coverage-wise he could see some of Trufant, but he’s most likely going to have to take on Robert Alford (who, per Pro Football Focus’ grades, is barely average) and should be able to make hay in that matchup. If everyone is healthy, he should have a strong game; if Cobb and/or Montgomery aren’t playing or are held back by injuries, Adams might have to put up another Chicago-esque performance for the Packers to win — and he might just do so.

For now, my expectations are banking on Rodgers having all his guys out there, using the same non-Nelson trio to slowly pick through the Falcons which did so against the Bears.

Week 8 Predictions:

Nelson – 3 catches, 45 receiving yards; 4.50 fantasy pointsCobb – 8 catches, 65 receiving yards, 10 rushing yards, 1 TD; 13.50 fantasy pointsAdams – 7 catches, 80 receiving yards, 1 TD; 14.00 fantasy pointsMontgomery – 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, 45 rushing yards; 16.00 fantasy points

Verdicts: Middling Showing (Nelson); Underneath Attacker (Cobb); Quasi-Top Option (Adams); Dual-Threat (Montgomery)

Oct 9, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers tight end Richard Rodgers (82) can

TE – Richard Rodgers

Week 7 Statistics:

Rodgers – 1 catch (1 target), 7 receiving yards; 0.70 fantasy points

Another week, another virtually non-existant showing from Green Bay’s tight end position — and it isn’t likely to end anytime soon.

Jared Cook was asked earlier this week about if he would be returning to practice soon. His answer: “I wish.”

If Cook were able to get on the field, his presence alone might be enough to allow the offense to do some new things and take some decent shots downfield. Without him, all we are left with at tight end is Rodgers, who has a grand total of 17 targets, 9 catches, 84 yards, and 1 TD through six games.

Last week had plenty of good signs for the offense as a whole, but one of my favorites is probably a lower usage of this ever-underwhelming tight end position. Out of the 87 offensive snaps (huge amount, by the way) available, Rodgers was only on the field for 48 of them (55%).

I would expect that number stays somewhere around that percentage, if only to keep an extra big body for expected running plays (though that’s still not a great idea either; Rodgers is 58th in PFF’s run blocking grades for TEs) and a few passes (surprisingly he ranks #9 in pass blocking for tight ends by their metrics, though that says more about the state of pass blocking for the tight end spot — not a single qualified player even grades out above a 79 — than his actual ability in this regard).

While it would be nice to see the Hail Mary Hero have a decent showing again for once, it seems more likely a unicorn will be catching passes over the middle with regularity than Rodgers being a worthy play on your fantasy team anytime soon.

Week 8 Predictions:

Rodgers – 2 catches, 15 receiving yards; 1.50 fantasy points

Verdict: Don’t Bother

Oct 9, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby (2) during the game against the New York Giants at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 23-16. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

K – Mason Crosby

Week 7 Statistics: 2/3 PATs, 2/3 FGs (Made: 32, 40; Missed: 31); 9.00 fantasy points

That Thursday night game was a rare showing indeed.

Not only did we see the Green Bay offense find a rhythm which felt at times impossible based on what they had been showing since 2015, but we saw the most consistent piece of this team for the past four years finish off the night with a clunker.

Crosby not only missed his first-ever extra point under the new rules, but he missed a late field goal attempt, leaving 4 points on the table both in terms of the real game and for fantasy players.

I wouldn’t worry too much about it, however.

Crosby has done plenty in the past few years to show we have no reason to fear this becoming a repeat of 2012. As I said, that missed extra point was his first since the rules made it a 33-yard attempt prior to 2015, and before the missed field goal he hadn’t had a miss from under 40 yards since Week 4 of 2014. As with that kick (and notably, many of Crosby’s misses since 2012), this was technically a blocked attempt, so at least part of the fault falls to the guys in front of him for not doing a good enough job.

With this lining up to be a high-scoring affair, Crosby should get plenty of opportunities to put points on the board and quickly wipe away any bad taste his end-game performance last week may have left in people’s mouths.

Week 8 Prediction: 3 FGs (2 30-39 yards, 1 40-49 yards), 3 XPs; 13.00 fantasy points

Verdict: Return To Normalcy

Oct 20, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers linebacker Nick Perry (53) sacks Chicago Bears quarterback Matt Barkley (12) during the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 26-10. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Defense

Week 7 Statistics: 4 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 2 INTs; 12.00 fantasy points

I was expecting a strong showing from this group, and they delivered — though not in the fashion I had thought would occur.

I expected this game to turn into a sack-fuelled, turnover-filled massacre of the Bears’ offense; while there were a couple picks, the sacks didn’t come. Instead, the defense let up a total of just four points — one of which was a PAT after Rodgers fumbled the ball away for a Chicago defensive touchdown — while shutting down whatever the Bears wanted to try doing.

On the night, Chicago couldn’t even manage 200 yards combined offensively. The run game had a couple nice plays, but still ended the game with only 69 yards on the ground on 18 carries. The passing game was only able to provide 10 completions and 120 yards between two different quarterbacks, with neither pre-broken-arm Brian Hoyer or thrust-into-playing Matt Barkley able to take advantage of an injury-hampered Green Bay secondary.

This week presents a much more dangerous matchup in the Falcons.

They come in with an offense rated #2 in Offensive DVOA (including #3 Pass Offense DVOA, #6 Run Offense DVOA). Matt Ryan leads the charge for the Falcons, and though he has cooled off some from the way-too-early MVP talk he was receiving during a 4-1 start for his team he’s still at worst a semi-elite quarterback at worst right now. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman give them a two-headed monster in the backfield which can both run and catch with aplomb. And of course, there’s world-destroyer Julio Jones at wide receiver.

Green Bay seems to have been handed at least a little bit of luck here with Coleman possibly missing the game, but Atlanta’s other major weapons could do plenty of damage on their own.

Julio is going to get his regardless of what the Packers throw at him, and I wholeheartedly expect a statline reminiscent of what he put up against the Packers last time he faced them (11 catches, 259 yards, 1 TD in that 2014 matchup), so the key to a win for Green Bay likely lies in how they fare against the other weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal.

Outside of Jones, I don’t see the other receiving options making much impact here (though that will partially be because they don’t really need to), so the running game will be what to watch.

Green Bay has done an excellent job against the run in five of their six games, but that one bad game may not be an outlier as much as it is an indicator of the level of competition they faced in their victories. Those wins saw teams all rated in the lower third of the league in terms of Run Offense DVOA — Jacksonville (29), Minnesota (32), Detroit (28), New York Giants (24), and Chicago (21) — and most of those teams were down at least one key member of their run game for those contests.

The bad game was their laughably bad effort against the Cowboys, where they let Dallas rack up 191 yards on the ground. Dallas is the best in Run Offense DVOA, and Green Bay seemed massively outclassed in that particular battle. Atlanta isn’t on that level, but they do rank #6 in Run Offense DVOA, so they are much closer to Dallas’ level than what the Packers have shown able to shut down thus far. With Coleman not in — and Atlanta’s offensive line being nowhere near Dallas’ in quality — they may be able to sustain a better effort here against a quality running game.

If they do, the litany of pass rushers Green Bay has will get more opportunities to unleash themselves upon Matt Ryan. If they can get pressure on him, Ryan has shown a tendency to make mistakes and errant throws (like he did towards the end of their games last week against San Diego).

To be clear, my projections for this unit are going off a winning scenario for the Packers. This game can turn really bad if the Packers’ coaches don’t find some way to slow Julio at least a little — or let his less-capable brethren produce due to weighing the coverage too heavily his way — so these projections could easily be blown out of the water by an explosive offense with an otherworldly receiver leading the charge.

If you have another decent option, I would turn to that first. If not, it might be worth the risk if you believe the Packers are capable of mucking things up with their front seven and forcing an error or two out of Ryan.

Week 8 Prediction:

27 Points Against, 3 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery; 7.00 fantasy points

Verdict: Risky Play