Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Football Bills vs. Rams Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Fantasy Football Bills vs. Rams. How will the running backs do?

The Buffalo Bills travel to Los Angeles to play the 3-1 Rams on Sunday at 4:25pm. It’s going to be a tough game for the Bills. Complicating matters is that the Bills have several intangibles working against them. In the past 20 years, the Bills are just 3-11 when playing in the Pacific Time Zone. Additionally, the Bills will also be looking to rack up their first three-game win streak since 2011.

The Bills will face off against a Rams team which is built a lot like their own team. Both have good defenses, great running backs, and struggle in the passing game. The gameplan on both sides will be to establish an early lead and then use the running game to keep the clock running.

Speaking of running the ball, let’s start with Todd Gurley who was widely considered by many to be the top running back in fantasy football this year. Gurley entered the league like a bat out of hell in his rookie campaign. In his first four weeks receiving a full workload, he rushed for over a 100 yards in each game with a total of 566 yards while averaging over 6.4 yards per carry.

The problem is since those games he’s averaging just over 62 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. That’s not to say that Gurley is the problem though. He hasn’t had very competent quarterback play in his two years in the league and so defenses are able to key in on him and stack the box making his job that much more difficult. His offensive line has also been an issue.

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That’s the number one thing holding him back from being the superstar that most experts were expecting this year. In three of the four games this year, he has rushed for 51 yards or less and it’s certainly not due to lack of carries. He totes the rock on average more than 20 times a game.

The Bills defense is 13th in the league in run defense averaging 96 yards per game and that was without Marcell Dareus. Gurley will have his work cut out for him but he should get around 90 yards for the Rams and will be the primary focal point of their offense just like LeSean McCoy will be for the Bills.

Speaking of Shady, he’s been more productive over the past two weeks since the Bills offensive coordinator change. He’s averaging 90 yards on the ground in that span with two total touchdowns.

That’s the target for McCoy this week against a tough Rams defense with a good front seven. If he can get 90 yards and touchdown, as a fantasy owner you’ll certainly be happy. The main this holding McCoy back from being his old superstar self is the same with Gurley. The Bills lack of a competent passing attack has allowed defenses to key in on McCoy reducing his production.

On Friday in practice, McCoy hurt his hand and is listed as questionable for Sunday. You definitely want to handcuff him with Mike Gillislee if you have space on your roster, or just pick up Gillislee even if you don’t have McCoy in case he is unable to play. Shady doesn’t seem to be too concerned about it despite his questionable status. According to Mike Rodak of ESPN, McCoy describes the injury as “something minor” and further elaborated “l won’t miss this game. I won’t miss it for the world.”

Players tend to be overconfident about their ability to play when it comes to injuries but at this point, it seems like McCoy will play.

The other Bills backs don’t merit a start this week unless McCoy is out. Offensive Coordinator Anthony Lynn is still looking for a change of pace back that could be effective like Karlos Williams was as a power runner. Rumors are the Bills are thinking about bringing Williams back, but nothing is official yet.

According to NewYorkUpstate.com, Lynn said, “We don’t have that complement to LeSean right now like we had last year with Karlos. This guy comes in at 245 pounds and he’s a bruiser, you know? And LeSean’s more of a scat, space back. We are missing that a little bit. But I think Mike Gillislee comes in, he’s more decisive, more of a direct runner. He gives it to us a little bit. Jonathan Williams when we get him going he can be a change of pace guy for us as well. We don’t have that Karlos on the team right now and we have to make do with what we have.”

So if you have Gurley or McCoy, you need to start them despite their tough matchups this week and the lack of effective passing attacks to take pressure off them.

Alright, now that we covered the running game which will be featured prominently by both teams this week, let’s move onto the passing attack on the next slide starting with the quarterbacks.

How will the Quarterbacks fare this week?

If you are looking to start either quarterback in this game your team might be in trouble. Tyrod Taylor has just 193.3 passing yards per game. Case Keenum isn’t much better averaging just over 206 yards per game.

Rams starting quarterback, Case Keenum, is not a player you can start in fantasy football. He has thrown for just 825 yards through four weeks with four touchdowns and three interceptions. The Rams used the first overall selection in the 2016 draft to select Jared Goff. Unfortunately for the team, Goff was not as NFL ready as the number two overall pick Carson Wentz who has played remarkably well for the Philadelphia Eagles and so Goff remains on the bench.

The Rams have some decent receiving targets for Keenum with Kenny Stills, Brian Quick, Tavon Austin and Lance Kendricks but they don’t have an elite number one receiver which allows teams to focus in on the run against Los Angeles forcing them to beat you through the air which is not something the team wants to do.

Teams try to shut down Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense the same way. With Sammy Watkins on IR, Buffalo lacks a true number one wide receiver and opponents will try to focus on LeSean McCoy to make Taylor beat them through the air.

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Taylor has thrown for even fewer yards than Keenum with a total of 773 yards. Despite throwing for fewer yards Taylor is a much better fantasy player also adding 140 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown to boot. Those rushing yards are what makes Tyrod Taylor dynamic and the only reason you can consider playing him in fantasy so far this year.

Under new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, Buffalo has made some strides in their passing game by rolling the pocket for Tyrod allowing him to see better up the field but the passing attack is still a work in progress and needs to improve before it will provide much fantasy value.

Each quarterback will face a tough defense that is ranked in the top 10 in fewest points allowed this year. The Bills give up the sixth-fewest points in the league with 17 per game while the Rams are 9th with 19 per game.

Yahoo projects Tyrod Taylor to have the 23rd most passing points this week for a quarterback while Keenum is projected to have the 27th most points. Unless you’re in a two-quarterback league you should be leaving these players on your bench or in Keenum’s case he really should be a free agent in your league.

That’s it for the quarterbacks, let’s move onto the Bills receivers on the next slide.

How will the Bills wide receivers do in Fantasy Football this week?

As noted before, neither team has an elite passing attack. It’s not the primary focus of either offense. It’s not just the quarterbacks that hold these teams back but also their receivers. Both have some capable receivers with different skill sets but with Sammy Watkins on IR, neither has an elite talent that could help relieve some of the pressure on these quarterbacks.

Fantasy owners who started Robert Woods last week in Watkins absence were moderately happy with his performance of seven catches for 89 yards. Owners in PPR leagues were obviously much happier with him due to his seven receptions.

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Don’t get too excited about Woods, though. He will see increased targets and stats going forward but his 89 yard total was the third most in his career and he has been in the league since 2013.

Buffalo used some designed plays to roll the pocket allowing Tyrod Taylor better visibility up the field and you could tell he was more confident and more accurate in that aspect of his game. It’s part of the reason why Woods was able to put up as many yards as he did.

Charles Clay also benefited from the tweaks that Anthony Lynn has made in the offense. He had his highest reception total of the season (5) and yardage total as well (47). Despite the improved stats he still has a ways to go before he adds any value to a fantasy roster.

One wildcard in the Bills passing attack will be Justin Hunter who was signed last week when the Bills put Sammy Watkins on IR. Hunter is a tall (6’4″) and a fast receiver (4.4 speed) who could be an ideal red zone target for Buffalo.

Rex Ryan agrees. According to the Buffalo News he said, “There’s a possibility that we’ll see him this Sunday. I know that he’s been at it. You know, he’s studying, he’s doing all that, so we’ll see how he is on the practice field. I hope he can help us, because I’d like to get that big body, that kind of size and speed that he has, I think, could really help us, in particular, in the red zone.”

Hunter, while intriguing, is still not worthy of a start in fantasy football but keep an eye out for him Sunday if he plays. If you see him getting most of the red zone targets in deeper leagues you might want to stash him on your bench.

How will the Rams wide receivers do in Fantasy Football this week?

The Rams receivers are similar to the Bills without Sammy Watkins in that they have a lot of players with diverse skill sets but they lack a truly dominant number one option. Kenny Britt right now has been Case Keenum’s number favorite target and he’s having a nice season so far. Britt has 281 yards on the year which comes out to about 70 per game.

The problem for fantasy owners is that he doesn’t have any touchdowns which is not that surprising based on his career. He’s only had one season where he had more than four touchdowns and that was back in 2010 when he had nine. Britt is an option for a WR3 or flex spot this week but has limited upside due to his lack of touchdowns.

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The other main receivers for the Rams are Tavon Austin and Brian Quick. Austin is the type of player who will drive a fantasy owner nuts. I know from having him on my team in prior years. Austin is so talented and has the tendency to make big plays whether on end arounds, bubble screens, handoffs, or even on the return unit. He’s been targeted more than any other player on the Rams (36 times) but has only managed to come up with 16 catches.

He is a bit of a gadget player but when he does make a big play you wonder why can’t he do this more often. If Austin can ever figure it out he could mirror the career of someone like Percy Harvin although Harvin is a little tougher (despite all the injuries) than Austin. He has never put up over 500 receiving yards in a season and his best year was last year when he had 741 all-purpose yards. He disappears for weeks at a time and he’s not a player you can trust to play in any given week.

Brian Quick has already matched his career high in touchdowns in just four games. He’s racked up three touchdowns for the Rams. Outside of two big plays though he’s been largely ineffective. He has two long touchdown catches of 44 and 65 yards which account for 73 percent of his total 149 yards for the year.

Tight end Lance Kendricks is in his sixth season with the Rams. His first two seasons were his most productive with 352 receiving yards his first year followed by 512 in his sophomore year. Since then he hasn’t put up over 300 yards in a season. At this point, it’s pretty fair to say he’s never going to be a factor in fantasy football. He should be a free agent in your league and you should let him stay that way.

That’s it for the offensive side of the ball. Let’s move on to the defense on the next slide.

How will the defenses do in Fantasy Football this week?

The Bills and the Rams have two of the better defenses in the league. Buffalo’s defense has the second highest average points per week in standard Yahoo leagues and the Rams are sixth. Both are must-starts in fantasy this week not just because of their own talent but due to the lack of productivity for each of their opposing offenses. Both teams feature strong running games which should keep the clock running and lower the amount of possessions and points.

The Bills defense this week could get a huge boost with the return of “Mr. Big Stuff”, Marcell Dareus, to the active roster from a four-game suspension. Dareus tweaked his hamstring in practice on Friday so there is a chance he might not play but they held up fine without him in the first four weeks so it shouldn’t factor in your decision to play them.

He’s not in shape to play a full game but his presence in the middle should give the Bills a huge boost. He’ll take a few snaps away from Kyle Williams, Corbin Bryant, Leger Douzable and Adolphus Washington keeping them fresher for when they are in the game.

The defense has been great in three out of four weeks this season and you can expect that to continue. Buffalo really only needs to worry about Todd Gurley and not much else. They can’t get overly cocky though coming off a huge shutout of the Patriots. Luckily they have guys in the locker room like Leger Douzable who on the John Murphy Show in his regular “Douz and Dont’s” segment said that the team shouldn’t “drink the Kool-Aid” after all the praise following their past two wins.

The Bills defense has the sixth highest turnover amount in the league with eight. Their linebackers have been playing lights out which has been the major difference between this season and last. In fact, Bills linebacker Zach Brown won the AFC Defensive Player of the Week last week.

The Rams defense generally plays in a 4-3 formation under the guidance of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who was head coach of the Bills for three years starting in 2001. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald was the NFC Defensive Player of the Week last week just like Zach Brown was in the AFC.

Donald is an absolute superstar and if you watch this game, it won’t be hard to notice which player he is. He’ll be the one in Tyrod Taylor’s face all day. The Bills offense will have to double and triple team him while relying on Tyrod’s legs to get away from him. It won’t be easy as he has an NFL high 25 pressures on the quarterback along with 1.5 sacks. Pro Football Focus ranks Donald as the best player in the league with a rating of 95.3.

A few years back Rex Ryan criticized Donald but that was really more of a statement of support for Rex’s guy at the time Sheldon Richardson than a knock on Donald. Rex has since admitted he had never even seen Donald play at the time and now that he has he admits he is a special talent. Donald may still use those words for motivation on Sunday though.

Donald is part of the reason why the Rams have one of the better front sevens in the league along with Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree. The Rams weakness lies in their secondary and losing Janoris Jenkins in the free agency this past year didn’t help. If Buffalo can find a way to get their passing game going it could be a long day for Los Angeles but the Bills have not proven that they can do that thus far this season.

If you have either of these defenses on your roster you should feel pretty good about starting them. Both are very talented and they play offenses which are not very potent. That’s the perfect combination for a good week.

Due to the strong defensive play, both kickers could also have good weeks. Greg Zuerlein has only five field goal attempts this year but he has hit all of them. If the Rams can move the ball into Bills territory a few times he should get a couple attempts. The same goes for Dan Carpenter who is six of eight on field goal attempts this year. Both of his misses were in the 40-49 yard range.

When it comes down to it, both defenses, running backs and kickers are decent starts. The quarterbacks should be avoided and only the top receivers on each team should be considered along with possibly Charles Clay if you don’t have a better option this week. Everyone else should be avoided like the plague.

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