Miami Dolphins

Dolphins at Chargers: Preview, Predictions, and More

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers

What started out as a nightmare season for the Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers has turned around quite rapidly for each. The Chargers are now still thinking about a Wild Card berth, but the Dolphins have the same in mind. Momentum and a leg ahead in that race for the Wild Card will hang in the balance in NFL Week 10 from Qualcomm Stadium as these two teams face off.

The emergence of Jay Ajayi for the Dolphins has been one of the most shocking developments of 2016. The second-year back has gone for over 500 yards rushing in his last three games and would love to continue carrying the Miami offense. Of course, a Ryan Tannehill collapse always feels as if it’s looming, so this team will hope the quarterback can avoid that.

For the Chargers, Philip Rivers and the offense have been rolling all season long. However, they simply couldn’t finish games earlier in the year, suffering fourth-quarter losses regularly early on. Now they’ve righted the ship, though, with Melvin Gordon hitting his stride. Also aiding the cause has been rookie Joey Bosa and the suddenly dangerous San Diego defense.

Keys to Victory

Playing at home, the Chargers have to make sure that they force Ryan Tannehill to beat them. Given how he’s been running, Jay Ajayi is going to get his yardage. What San Diego has to do in this game is make sure he doesn’t break many (if any) big runs and that they force Tannehill to convert third downs, make big throws, and basically lead the offense. The Dolphins quarterback hasn’t shown he can do that with any consistency, so those odds are worth playing.

Meanwhile, the Miami defense has to make sure that they’re able to not get beat over the top in their secondary. With Reshad Jones out of the lineup, the Dolphins have a hole in the back. The Chargers, however, have speedster receivers on the field that can burn people. For Miami to stay in it, they have to limit the throws going over the top and way down the field.

Odds

Point Spread: San Diego -4
Moneyline: San Diego -210, Miami +180
Over/Under: 49

Predictions

Ajayi is going to help the Dolphins move the ball at times during this game. However, I just don’t think it’ll be enough or that they’ll do anything else against an improving San Diego defense. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon should pick Miami apart at home and ultimately get the win.

Pick: Miami Dolphins: 17, San Diego Chargers: 30