National Football League

Cowboys vs. 49ers preview, predictions: What should you expect in huge rivalry game

Updated Oct. 5, 2023 2:07 p.m. ET

David Helman

Dallas Cowboys Insider

Eric Williams

NFC West Writer

Sometimes, a well-laid plan works to perfection.

Week 5 is here. The San Francisco 49ers (4-0) and the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) look like contenders, as expected, and the rematch we've been waiting on since last year's playoffs is here. Not all of the NFL's prime-time scheduling has gone according to plan this season, but featuring this game was a beautiful decision.

It's rare that an early October matchup has the feel of a playoff game, but that's what happens when two NFC powerhouses link up after meeting in the playoffs in two straight years. The 49ers ended the Cowboys' season in 2021 and 2022, so the motivation in Dallas is self-explanatory. For the 49ers, another win would send a statement that this team is indeed ready to make a run at a third straight NFC Championship Game.

To break it down further, FOX Sports NFL writers David Helman and Eric D. Williams got together to hash out every angle of the matchup.

Helman: Eric, my first question is about the vibes around this game and the way the 49ers view this rivalry. It's beyond obvious how important this game feels in Dallas. Dak Prescott got animated reliving last year's playoff loss immediately after the win against New England on Sunday. On Tuesday, owner/general manager Jerry Jones called this a measuring-stick game against the league's best team. The Cowboys are desperate to get past their biggest bully. But on the other side of things, how do the 49ers view this game?

Williams: Even though San Francisco has won the past two matchups in the postseason, players and coaches have a healthy respect for the Cowboys because of the elite talent littered across the roster and the history the two teams share in the playoffs. Any time you face Dallas, it's a big game. The Cowboys have one of the most talented defenses in the league and are led on offense by one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL in Prescott.

The last time these two teams played each other, the game came down to the final drive. For San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, it's a good barometer to see where the 49ers sit early in the season. "These are kind of the games you live for and you enjoy," Shanahan told reporters this week. San Francisco left tackle Trent Williams called it an "ice bag game," referring to the physical way the two teams play. It's also a nationally televised game with everyone around the league watching, so the Cowboys will have the 49ers' full attention.

Speaking of Prescott, the Cowboys have been dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Is there concern with how the protection will hold up for Dallas going against one of the best defensive lines in the league, led by Nick Bosa?

What is at stake in Week 5's Cowboys-49ers matchup?

Helman: There has to be. The Cowboys' offensive line health is trending in the right direction, but there's still one last piece of the puzzle. Tyron Smith has missed the last two games with a knee injury he suffered during practice, and Jerry Jones said Tuesday it's "iffy" whether he'll play.

This has been the story in Dallas for a while at this point. Smith is still a dominant left tackle when he's healthy, and he looked great in the first two games of the season. It's just that relying on his good health is dicey. He's missed time in eight straight seasons, and he has appeared in only 22 of 57 possible games since 2020. The Cowboys have to be hoping he can work his way back in time for Sunday. His replacement, Chuma Edoga, has played well enough in relief, but asking him to go against Nick Bosa is a different beast.

It's not all bad news, though. Tyler Smith is back from a hamstring injury and looks fantastic at left guard. Both center Tyler Biadasz and right guard Zack Martin are expected to play. There's been some debate about whether the Cowboys should ask Tyler Smith to kick outside to left tackle, where he played all of his rookie season. The problem with that idea this week is obviously Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, who figure to be a tough matchup inside. Assuming the youngster stays at guard, everyone will need to be on their game to deal with those guys.

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As long as we're focused on protection, I'm curious about Brock Purdy. He's playing mistake-free football and has made several defenses pay for trying to pressure him. Given that pressure is the Cowboys' calling card on defense, what would you say is the best strategy to get to him?

Williams: Great question. As you mention, Purdy was impressive against Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and the variety of pressures he dialed up in Week 3. The Giants blitzed 84.6% of the time, and Purdy finished 20-of-31 for 247 yards and two scores when New York sent pressure. Purdy also averaged the fastest time to throw of his career (2.34 seconds).

The Cardinals used a different strategy in Week 4. Arizona brought pressure just 13.6% of the time. Purdy had one of the most efficient games of his short NFL career, completing 20-of-21 passes for 283 yards and a score. Purdy is 11-0 (including postseason) in games he has started and finished since taking over during his rookie year. He appears unflappable when facing pressure.

But the Cowboys were effective when generating pressure against Purdy last postseason. Purdy finished 2-of-9 for three yards when pressured by the Cowboys in the playoffs last season. Having covered Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in the past during his time in Seattle, I would lean toward Dallas figuring out a way to get home up front with a four-man pass rush led by Micah Parsons, and playing a mixture of coverages behind that.

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With Kellen Moore now managing the offense for the Chargers, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has taken over playcalling duties in Dallas. How has he handled the transition?

Helman: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder — or the playcaller, in this case.

I understand why McCarthy might be frustrated by those who say he's doing a bad job. Through four weeks, the Cowboys offense certainly hasn't been bad. They're scoring 24 points per game, which isn't amazing but is good enough for 11th in the league. They're moving the chains, as their third-down conversion rate of 51.6% is best in the NFL. They're taking care of the football, with just one turnover through four games. McCarthy made a great point last week that they're even getting to the red zone more than anyone else in the league, with 19 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line so far this year.

But yikes, those red-zone woes. Fortunately for their sake, the Cowboys did manage to score a red-zone touchdown against the Patriots, or else all hell might have broken loose in Dallas. Their brutal red-zone conversion percentage of 36.8% is 30th in the league. It's got to get better — and there's no time like the present. Their struggles haven't been a huge problem so far because they've blown so many teams out, but if they fail to capitalize on those opportunities against a team like the Niners, my guess is it's going to result in a loss.

That's a winding answer, but in summation, I think McCarthy is doing fine. Prescott looks as efficient as he ever has, and a big part of that is probably his mastery of short and intermediate throws — McCarthy is a West Coast disciple, after all. As the season moves along, I do think they'll need to find a more consistent source of explosive plays. Brandin Cooks has been non-existent as a deep threat to this point, and that will have to change if this offense is going to reach its full potential.

Speaking of which, the 49ers defense put Prescott through the wringer in the playoffs last year. The defense doesn't look as statistically dominant through the first month of this season — though it hasn't needed to be. What's different this time around, and how do you think San Francisco might try to gain an edge on the Cowboys offense?

Williams: Talking to new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and players on the defensive side of the football during training camp — along with watching San Francisco on defense through the first part of the season — two things stand out. Because of his background as a defensive backs coach, Wilks appeared more willing to play press-man coverage and blitz more. However, San Francisco's numbers through the first four weeks of the season are very similar to when DeMeco Ryans led the defense last season.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers are blitzing on 22.6% of defensive snaps compared to 23.9% of the time last season. They have played man coverage just 19.6% of the time compared to 21.8% in 2022.

However, just like last year, the 49ers keep teams out of the end zone. San Francisco is allowing just 14.5 points per game and holding opposing offenses to 66 yards per contest. Although the 49ers have just nine sacks on the year, the team's 40.5% quarterback pressure rate is No. 6 in the NFL. The 49ers have generated more pressure up the middle defensively with the addition of Hargrave in free agency.

San Francisco's five interceptions tie for No. 4 in the league, but they have yet to force a fumble. The 49ers did allow a 99-yard touchdown drive by the Joshua Dobbs-led Arizona Cardinals last week, so there's room for improvement defensively.

So far Wilks seems to have said, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Speaking of defense, the Cowboys allowed 222 rushing yards against the Cardinals two weeks ago. Is Dallas set up to stop one of the best backs in the league up front in Christian McCaffrey?

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Helman: Seeing is going to be believing for this one.

One downside of the Cowboys beating up on so many opponents is that we haven't seen them face a challenge like San Francisco's run game over the course of four full quarters. The box scores will tell you they defended the run fine against the Giants, Jets and Patriots — but those games got out of control quickly, forcing the opposition to stop running and start throwing. The Cardinals, who managed to jump out to an early lead, were able to gash them.

I do think it plays in the Cowboys' favor that Brock Purdy isn't the same kind of threat to run as Josh Dobbs is. The Niners learned themselves that Dobbs can play a big role as a runner. With so much more focus here on McCaffrey, I like the Cowboys' odds of getting downfield and getting hats on the ball carrier.

What's not so encouraging for the Cowboys is their linebacker situation. Leighton Vander Esch is a good player, and Damone Clark has flashed at times. But both players showed in Arizona that they can get caught out of position and taken advantage of by good and creative blocking. The Dallas front is good enough to hold up against San Francisco, but leave it to Kyle Shanahan to do some fun things with pulling linemen, fullbacks and tight ends in an effort to open up some big running lanes if the linebackers aren't up to snuff.

I'd be surprised if McCaffrey goes for 177 and four touchdowns in this game, but I'd be downright shocked if Dallas manages to shut him down.

All right, let's cut to the chase. Sunday Night Football — Cowboys at Niners. Who ya got?

Williams: Like the past two matchups, I expect a tight game that comes down to the wire. With these two teams evenly matched, I think it will come down to which team takes better care of the football.

Prescott had two interceptions in the last game and I like San Francisco's chances to take the ball away a couple of times in this one. I'll go 49ers 24, Cowboys 17.

Helman: I hate myself for doing it, but the Cowboys were my preseason Super Bowl pick and I'll ride with them. I trust Prescott to take care of the ball, as he's been doing for most of the season, and I think the Dallas pass rush can coax a mistake out of Purdy. If they can't do it, it might not ever happen. I'm predicting a slobber-knocker of a game that Dallas sneaks away with, 20-17.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team's official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback's time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.