San Francisco 49ers

Carlos Hyde Availability Key to 49ers Hopes Against Saints

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Neither the 49ers nor Carlos Hyde are sure if he can play on Sunday in a game where the running back would be especially key.

Despite having the benefit of missing the Week 7 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then having a bye, Carlos Hyde’s availability for the 49ers’ clash with the Saints remains in doubt.

Hyde suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder back in the Week 6 loss to the Buffalo Bills and, having spent the week of practice in a non-contact jersey to this point, neither head coach Chip Kelly nor Hyde himself has a clue whether he will be able to go against New Orleans.

Hyde, who has been listed as questionable for the game, has 429 yards on 109 carries, with an impressive six touchdowns, averaging a somewhat disappointing 3.9 yards per attempt.

Left tackle Joe Staley, per Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News, described the 49ers’ running game as “hit or miss”.

However, despite the below-par yards-per-carry average, a deeper dive into the numbers provides a largely positive critique of the performance of Hyde this season.

Hyde ranks at No. 5 in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) among running backs. DYAR is a metric that measures the value of a running back’s performance on plays where they carried or caught the ball compared to replacement level, with that value adjusted for situation and opposition and translated into yardage.

The former Ohio State back has 150 DYAR this season and also ranks No. 4 among NFL running backs in DVOA, which represents a tailback’s per-play value over an average player in the same game scenario.

Despite rating well in those measurements, and being credited with 622 Effective Yards – a metric used to display when a player has performed above his standard stats – by Football Outsiders, it has been tough sledding this year for Hyde.

Indeed, Football Outsiders ranks Hyde at No. 20 in the league with a Success Rate on his running plays of just 48 per cent.

The amount of effort Hyde has had to put in to make his yards can be attributed partly to an offensive line that Football Outsiders ranks at dead last in the league in run-blocking.

Even in the Week 1 win over the Los Angeles Rams, in which Hyde put up 88 yards and two touchdowns, he often had to display impressively quick footwork to bounce runs outside in order to make some of his bigger runs with precious little space available in-between the tackles.

And the O-Line’s failings in run-blocking became even more apparent against a poor Bucs run defense, with Mike Davis – coming in as the starter with Hyde out – proving an ineffective backup and putting up a mere 21 yards on seven carries.

August 26, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back DuJuan Harris (32) warms up before the game against the Green Bay Packers at Levi

DuJuan Harris, a more elusive back than Davis, did a little better with 39 yards on 11 rushes but the duo’s inability to make any kind of significant impact against Tampa Bay was particularly frustrating given how well quarterback Colin Kaepernick performed on the ground, averaging 9.3 yards a carry with 84 on nine attempts.

San Francisco cannot afford to waste another matchup against a highly questionable run defense if the Niners are to have any hope of keeping pace with the Saints’ high-powered offense and ending a miserable six-game skid.

The Saints are No. 29 in defensive DVOA, coming in at No. 28 against the run, having allowed 110 yards per game on the ground through their opening seven games.

Kaepernick’s ability to make things happen with his legs gives an added dimension to the 49ers’ rushing attack, but the impact of his threat as a runner is minimized when teams do not respect the starter at tailback, which is the case when Hyde is out of the game.

The jury is still out on Hyde in his third year in the league after two injury-hit seasons, but the fact remains no other 49er back boasts his blend of burst, power, physicality and elusiveness. San Francisco has a chance to pick up a rare win at home against the Saints, but the odds of that happening will be severely reduced if Hyde is not out there on Sunday.