Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Picks for NFL Wild Card

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In this season's AFC Playoffs, the Buffalo Bills will play the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are slight favorites (-1.5). The total for this one is set at 51.5 points.

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Bills vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction & Pick

Jacksonville closed the regular season on an eight-game winning streak, and the defense played a major role by holding opponents under 20 points in six straight games. Trevor Lawrence capped a strong season with 4,007 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, giving the Jaguars steady, high-level quarterback play heading into this matchup.

Buffalo has been harder to trust week to week, especially on defense. The Bills allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game, which ranked 28th in the league, and that vulnerability could be an issue against a balanced Jacksonville offense. Josh Allen threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent at times, putting extra pressure on him to carry the offense.

Jacksonville is a slight favorite at -1.5 and playing at home at EverBank Stadium only strengthens the case. The total is set at 51.5 points, and the Jaguars are taking the Under in a game that profiles as more physical and defensive than the number suggests.

• Pick ATS: Jaguars (-1.5)
• Pick OU: Under (51.5)
• Prediction: Jaguars 28 - Bills 20

Prediction provided by FOX Sports' Sports AI. Download the FOX Sports App for free access to Sports AI.

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Jacksonville

• Game date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: EverBank Stadium
• Location: Jacksonville, Florida
• TV: CBS
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Bills vs. Jaguars Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Jacksonville has collected three wins against Buffalo.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has tallied 100 points versus Jacksonville, while allowing only 75 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• In 17 Buffalo games this year, it has eight wins against the spread.
• The Bills have covered the spread six times this season (6-9 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
• Buffalo games this year have hit the over on nine of 17 set point totals (52.9%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Bills are 10-5 (winning 66.7% of the time).
• Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Bills' implied win probability is 52.8%.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has passed for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He is averaging 229.3 yards per game and 8 per attempt, while completing 69.3% of his attempts.
• To go along with his passing stats, Allen also has 579 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with 14 rushing touchdowns.
• James Cook's rushing statline this season includes 1,621 yards (first in the NFL) and 12 TDs. He's averaging 95.4 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt (second in the NFL).
• Cook has 33 catches on 40 targets for 291 yards. He has two receiving TDs.
• In the passing game, Khalil Shakir, has racked up 719 receiving yards and four touchdowns after pulling down 72 balls on 95 targets. Per game, he's averaging 44.9 yards and 4.5 receptions in 16 games.
• Dalton Kincaid averages 3.3 receptions and 47.6 yards per game, and has 571 total receiving yards and 39 catches. He's gotten 49 total targets, and has caught five touchdown passes.

Defense

• On defense, Cole Bishop has three interceptions to go with 85 tackles, four TFL, two sacks, and seven passes defended in 2025.
• Greg Rousseau has seven sacks (first on the Bills) to go with six TFL and 46 tackles.
• Joey Bosa has recorded 29 tackles, nine TFL, and five sacks this year.
• Matt Milano has 67 tackles, seven TFL, and 3.5 sacks.

Jacksonville Betting Info

• Jacksonville has gone 12-5-0 against the spread this season.
• The Jaguars have been underdogs by 1.5 points or more eight times this season and are 5-3 ATS in those contests.
• This season, Jacksonville games have hit the over 10 times.
• The Jaguars have won five of the eight games they've played as underdogs this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 51.9% chance of a victory for the Jaguars.

Jaguars Stats

Jacksonville's Key Players

Offense

• Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 4,007 yards this year (to rank sixth in the NFL), with 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He is completing 60.9% of his attempts while averaging 235.7 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
• On the ground, Lawrence has added nine rushing touchdowns and 359 rushing yards (second on the Jaguars).
• Travis Etienne has 1,107 rushing yards (leading the Jaguars) and seven rushing touchdowns, while averaging 65.1 yards per game and 4.3 per attempt (28th in the NFL).
• Etienne has added 36 receptions (2.1 per game) for 292 yards (17.2 per game) with six receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 52 times in the passing attack.
• This season, Parker Washington has caught 58 passes for 847 receiving yards with five touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 95 total times and is averaging 3.6 receptions per game through 16 games played.
• Jakobi Meyers has 835 receiving yards and three touchdowns from 75 receptions after getting 110 targets.

Defense

• Foyesade Oluokun has intercepted one pass and also has 143 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and 11 passes defended in 2025.
• Josh Hines-Allen has 49 tackles, 12 TFL, eight sacks, and three passes defended.
• Devin Lloyd has 74 tackles, six TFL, 1.5 sacks, and five interceptions in the 2025 campaign. He is third on the Jaguars in tackles.
• Andrew Wingard's stat sheet includes one interception as well as 84 tackles, three TFL, and nine passes defended in 16 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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