Denver Broncos

5 Possible NFL Wild Card Teams That Could Win Super Bowl 51

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:24 p.m. ET

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These five possible NFL Wild Card teams have the potential to go on a run and win Super Bowl 51

The NFL Wild Card race is absolutely heating up right now. Entering Week 13, the possible contenders for the two spots in each conference have come to light. However, the jockeying for position in those standings is as furious as ever before.

More than 62 percent of NFL teams are still in contention for the postseason. The Seattle Seahawks should win the NFC West, while the Dallas Cowboys will most likely capture the NFC East crown, pending their showdown with the New York Giants in Week 14. The Atlanta Falcons have a one-game lead on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South and own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Lastly, the Detroit Lions have a leg up on the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings in the North.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots are a lock to capture the East’s top spot. The Houston Texans have the best chance of winning the AFC South. In the wild, wild West, the Oakland Raiders have the edge. Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers are slightly more favored to win the AFC North over the Baltimore Ravens.

There have been six NFL Wild Card teams who’ve won the Super Bowl: the 1980 Oakland Raiders, the 1997 Denver Broncos, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. Could these upcoming NFL Playoffs see another Wild Card squad lift the Lombardi Trophy?

These five teams have the grit and the goods to get the job done.

Oct 23, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Eric Berry (29) is introduced prior to a game against the New Orleans Saints at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 27-21. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

5. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have won six of their last seven games following a 2-2 start. There’s roughly a 32 percent chance of them winning the AFC West and a 54 percent probability of securing one of the Wild Card seeds.

Odds are the Raiders are going to win the division. Even though the Chiefs will end up owning the head-to-head series—having won in Week 6 by 16 points and then most likely winning at Arrowhead in Week 14—Oakland has an easier schedule. Though I could see the Raiders slipping up against bubble teams like the Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, or Indianapolis Colts, they should finish 13-3 thanks to MVP candidate Derek Carr.

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KC has the toughest schedule in the league the last five games of the regular season. They’ll have to face the high-flying Falcons in Atlanta and the wildly unpredictable Tennessee Titans. Not to mention the pesky Chargers will be in spoiler mode, which is them at their deadliest.

Losses to the Texans in Houston and Steelers in Pittsburgh might come back to kill Kansas City should they falter down the stretch. Plus, those two teams could end up being their opponents in the postseason. But with Andy Reid as coach, Alex Smith as quarterback, and the emergence of rookie Tyreek Hill, Chiefs fans should be more confident than others in their chances.

Kansas City should end up with the No. 5 seed, in which case they’ll face the No. 4 seed in the Wild Card round. That slot should be filled by the AFC South champion Texans. Despite the Week 2 loss in Houston, the Chiefs should be able to obliterate Brock Osweiler and advance to the Divisional Round. There, KC should travel to Oakland where they’ve already earned a W. Sure, the playoff atmosphere should be off the charts, but the Chiefs have Oakland’s number.

That’s right, Chiefs faithful! Your team’s going to the AFC Championship for the first time since 1993. Alas, they’ll be back in Foxboro where they lost by seven to the Pats last January. That was despite gaining more total yards, holding the ball for almost 38 minutes, and converting 12-of-20 third downs. With Justin Houston back and Rob Gronkowski out, KC could pull off the upset and advance to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969 when they were in the AFL.

Oct 30, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) in the third quarter against the San Diego Chargers at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

4. Denver Broncos

If the postseason were to start before Week 13, the Broncos would not make the playoffs. As of Friday, the Miami Dolphins would have the No. 6 seed. It’s a case of playing in arguably the toughest division in football. Had the Broncos been in the AFC North or South, they’d be division champions and hosting a postseason contest. Instead, Denver has about a five percent chance of winning the AFC West, a 39 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot and a 56 percent probability of missing the postseason.

The road ahead isn’t kind for Denver. The Broncs have the fourth toughest schedule in the league, second hardest in the conference, and second stiffest behind Kansas City’s. After a cakewalk against the Jaguars in Jacksonville, they’ll square up against the Titans in Tennessee, Patriots, Chiefs in Arrowhead, and host Oakland. Should they surpass the Dolphins for that second Wild Card, they’d head to Pittsburgh to steal a win from the Steelers. Denver’s pass defense has been fierce, so the key will be corralling Le’Veon Bell.

A victory at Heinz Field would place them in Oakland, where they lost 30-20 in Week 9. As previously mentioned in regards to Kansas City, the environment should be bananas. However, you’d have to give the advantage to Denver as their corners and secondary should neutralize Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

The Divisional Round win would send them to Foxboro for a rematch with the Patriots. Does New England have the offensive weapons, without Rob Gronkowski, to overcome Denver’s pass defense? Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will surely have tricks up their non-existent sleeves, but can the offensive line bottle up Von Miller? Ultimately, it will come down New England’s defense trying to stop Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. While the defense bends, but doesn’t break, the battle of field goals would go to Denver.

Of course, Denver’s success rests on the health of Trevor Siemian. His sprained foot, which has him doubtful for the game against the Jags, could severely limit his mobility and his ability to step into throws. If Paxton Lynch is forced to action, Denver could be in trouble.

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3. New York Giants

Following a 2-3 start that included a back-breaking late-game loss to the Redskins and double-digit losses to the Packers and Vikings, the 8-3 G-men have around a six percent probability of winning the NFC East. The Giants also have a 72 percent chance of getting one of the two Wild Card spots, and 22 percent odds of not getting to the playoffs for the fifth year in a row.

No other NFC team has a tougher schedule than the Giants over the last five games. They’ll face the up-trending Steelers in Pittsburgh, host the division-leading Cowboys and Lions, then travel to Philly and D.C. to finish out the season. If they can win three of the next five, they’re virtually guaranteed a Wild Card spot. Winning just two of those matchups could still land them a spot in the postseason.

So far, the Giants have won a slew of close games courtesy of their stingy defense, which has pulled a total 180 from 2015 when they blew several late leads. How long can that side of the ball continue to save the team and bail out the offense? Well, Giants fans would prefer not holding their hearts in their throats. For that to happen, Big Blue’s offense has to play better. That means finding balance with an anemic ground game and converting more third downs and red zone opportunities.

Entering Week 13, the Giants are projected to secure the No. 5 seed, which would have them either motoring into Detroit to take on the NFC North champion Lions or saddling up for Atlanta to battle the NFC South champion Falcons. If the Giants could pick, they’d probably pick the Falcons and their leaky defense rather than the Lions and their late-game heroics.

Regardless, a road win in the Wild Card Round would most likely lead them to Seattle for a showdown with the Seahawks. Russell Wilson could run the Giants pass rush ragged, Jimmy Graham could have a career day and the Legion of Boom could spell doom for Eli Manning. But with comparable defenses, the edge goes to New York’s underrated offense. With Odell Beckham surely double and triple covered, expect guys like Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz to excel.

An improbable win in Grunge City would probably propel the Giants to Dallas for a colossal NFC Championship match with the Cowboys. Only one team has defeated “America’s Team” as of Week 13: The Giants. Big Blue should dismantle the Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott express just as they had in the season opener to get back to the Super Bowl where Eli’s 2-0.

Nov 13, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins tight end Vernon Davis (85) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the second quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

2. Washington Redskins

Washington has a less than one percent shot of winning the NFC East, having lost to the Cowboys twice. The Redskins have a 67 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot and a 33 percent probability of not playing playoff football. As of publish, Washington’s projected to secure the No. 6 seed, but they have a much more favorable schedule than the Giants, Cowboys, Packers (whom they beat) and the Lions.

In fact, the Redskins have the fifth easiest schedule in the NFC and the softest slate in their division. They’ll pay visit to the crashing Cardinals in Arizona, the Eagles in Philadelphia, host the panicking Panthers and go to Chicago to bury the Bears. That sets up a humongous season finale with the Giants at FedEx Field. Seeing as the Redskins put up 457 total yards against the G-Men (the most allowed by New York in 2016), Washington has a decent shot at beating them and getting the No. 5 seed.

As it stands, if Washington were to stick to the No. 6 seed, they’d most likely face the Falcons in Atlanta in the Wild Card. That shootout could end with Kirk Cousins and crew getting the best of Matt Ryan, which would have Washington taking on the Cowboys in Dallas. That would be the first time Washington advanced to the Divisional Round since 2005.

Third time’s the charm for Josh Norman and company as they’ve seen enough of Ezekiel Elliott to stop him and force Dak Prescott into questionable decisions. Dallas’ playoff struggles continue, leading many to wonder if the veteran Romo should’ve played over rookie Prescott. The victory would mean Washington’s first trip to the conference championship since 1991.

If there’s any offense that could break Seattle’s Legion of Boom, it’s Washington’s. The Skins are second in the league in total yards, passing yards, and net yards per attempt while also ranking third in first downs. The Seahawks could implode if Cousins is on point and Jordan Reed is fully operational.

Jay Gruden needs to get his run defense in order to get the franchise’s first Lombardi trophy in a quarter-century.

Nov 27, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) smiles as he pumps his fist against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Seattle Seahawks 14-5. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs? Yup, the Bucs. They’ve beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead and the Seattle Seahawks at home to vault themselves into the playoff conversation. This is an uneven team that defeated the Falcons in Atlanta, the Panthers in Carolina, and took the Raiders into overtime in Oakland, yet lost to the hapless Los Angeles Rams at home.

At 6-5, Tampa’s now got a 12 percent chance of winning the NFC South, a 20 percent probability of clinching a Wild Card seed, and 68 percent odds they’ll be eliminated from postseason. If we’re just looking at records, their schedule isn’t that bad over the final five games. But then you dig deeper and see the road to the playoffs might be rockier than expected.

Tampa will play the Chargers in San Diego, the Cowboys in Dallas, a pair of games against New Orleans, and a home matchup against the Panthers. If the Buccaneers win three of those games, there’s a 28 percent chance they secure the No. 6 seed. Winning four of five would increase those odds to 43 percent. If you’re a NFC playoff team, you have to take notice of a Tampa team that’s won seven of its last eight heading into the postseason.

For most of the season, the Bucs defense has been middle of the road, but they’ve turned up their turnover ratio of late. That unit is now fifth in the league in turnover percentage. If they can continue that trend while cutting back on turnovers of their own on offense (a BIG challenge for Jameis Winston), they’ll be the dark horse contender for the Lombardi in the NFC.

With Doug Martin back in the fold and the emergence of Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate, the Bucs have plenty of scoring options on offense to keep defenses on their toes. As for Tampa’s defense, second-year linebacker Kwon Alexander has become a star, tallying the second-most solo tackles in the league. He leads a defense that is tied for eighth highest sack percentage—behind veterans Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers, plus rookie Noah Spence— and has allowed the 10th lowest completion percentage.

Every good, young team and every good, young quarterback has a sea change that turns them legitimate. When we look back at 2016 Buccaneers season, we’ll point to the last two wins over the Chiefs and Seahawks as their coming out party. NFC teams must be on high alert against Tampa. If you’re a believer in momentum, believe in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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