May 9, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers currently sit at 12-12 with under a month left to play in the calendar year. 2016 will end with a harsh month for the Blazers, who could use all the momentum they can muster.
Portland has finally put together a stretch of 3 straight wins while holding a team below 100 points, only to lose two straight heart-breakers. But with the recent return of Al-Farouq Aminu (‘Chief’), the Blazers have more reason to steamroll into 2017 on a positive note. The goal of competing for a top 4 seed (currently sitting 4 games back) remains attainable, but their defensive shortcomings combined with the tough schedule makes it a challenge that they must overcome.
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Daunting December
There are 15 games in the last month before the Blazers flip their calendar, but it won’t come easy. The schedule contains 9 road games, 3 back-to-backs while also playing the likes of the Clippers, Warriors and Spurs on the road. One thing that must be addressed is their defense. Every media outlet will continue to rant about their deficiencies until they turn things around, but it comes with good reason.
Conceding 109.9 points per 100 possessions as the leagues worst rank is no recipe for success. NBA offenses are mainly predicated on the two-man game in a bunch of different variations. This has a lot to do with defending pick and rolls (PnR) and how to scheme against it as a five-man unit. Currently, the Blazers rank quite poorly in PnR coverage in comparison with last season. They are 29th defending against PnR handlers at 0.91 points per possession (PPP) and 25th against PnR roll men at 1.09 PPP. Teams have scored on the Blazers at will. 20 of 24 games have resulted in the Blazers letting through over 100 points, causing coach Terry Stotts to go back to the drawing board.
Attention to Defensive Detail
Dec 5, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Dwyane Wade (3) is defended by Portland Trail Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu (8) during the third quarter of the game at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Stotts’ conservative scheme has long been left unadjusted. But with Ed Davis starting at the 4 (due to Aminu’s injury), the asset of having mobile bigs has its positives. The advanced metrics of where the Blazers rank in defending both the handler and roll man made it a priority for the team to re-calibrate itself. They require a defense that travels well in order to become the competitive team they desire to be.
The adjustments came from their 99-92 win over the Miami Heat where it was just the third game the Blazers had held a team below 100 points. It comes as no surprise that they are .750 in those outings. It started when the Blazers decided to ‘blitz’ pick and rolls situationally.
Normally the Blazers force opponents into the mid range shot, but this involves the guards and the lengthy, athletic bigs such as Davis and Mason Plumlee to trap the pick and roll handler. The guards still fight over the screen while staying on the guards hip, but the bigs step up and blitz the ball carrier instead of dropping down to protect the basket.
Combine this with the three weak side defenders being alert with necessary help/rotations and it’s an improvement. Teams often don’t resort to this scheme frequently: When it is not executed properly, it can create very high percentage looks inside or from beyond the arc.
Dec 8, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward JaMychal Green (0) and Memphis Grizzlies guard Tony Allen (9) fight for the rebound against Portland Trail Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu (8) during the second half at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 88-86. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Storylines to Watch:
Consistency
The Blazers have struggled with this concept throughout the season. It remains to be seen whether the team is able to maintain the defensive improvement while also continuing their offensive production (that ranks 8th in the league). Stotts has been known to tinker rather than make large adjustments, so the sustainability of the new pick and roll ‘blitzing’ scheme also comes under the microscope.
Chief’s role
‘Phys Ed’ (Davis) was slotted into the starting lineup while ‘Chief’ was absent which assisted the Blazers inside with their rim protection and on the glass. Aminu may have a quirky jump-shot, dribble waist height and be in a bit of a funk, but his importance in this team remains a key cog to their success (especially defensively). The question also remains whether Stotts will revert to the more versatile Chief and Hark (Maurice Harkless) lineup or if he continues to stay big.
Sep 26, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers center Festus Ezeli (31) poses during media day at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
The ‘Sheriff’
General Manager Neil Olshey has stated that some free agent signings were not for opening day, but the murky cloud that continues to lurk over Festus Ezeli has Blazer nation worried. Ezeli’s last update came on the November 15th where he had suffered a setback with his left knee. However, it is a good signs that he’s still traveling with the team. There is no timetable for his return, and with the Blazer fans preaching for his assistance on the defensive end, time will tell IF and WHEN he will play his first game as a Trail Blazer.
December and January 14th
These are the dates where free agent signings such as Evan Turner (Dec) and Allen Crabbe (Jan) are relinquished of their trade restrictions. Olshey went into the offseason focusing on asset acquisition and player retention, but it can almost be guaranteed that Paul Allen will not want to pay approximately $22 million in luxury tax next season for a middling playoff team. Expect a transaction to improve this roster.
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