Feb 6, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) grabs a rebound in front of Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) in the first quarter at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
As the 2017 NBA Playoffs approach, here are five teams facing critical postseason runs as even more important free agency decisions loom in the offseason.
In a league where more than half its teams make the postseason, everyone has something to play for once the NBA playoffs arrive.
That's especially true this season, with all 16+ teams fighting for a spot having a reason to push for the postseason rather than join the tanking epidemic that's swept over the association.
The bonafide title contenders obviously have their sights set on the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Cleveland Cavaliers will be attempting to defend their title. The Golden State Warriors face the most championship pressure after landing Kevin Durant in free agency.
The Houston Rockets will be fighting to validate James Harden's status as MVP frontrunner, as well as Mike D'Antoni's radical, three-point heavy offense. The Boston Celtics will be making their case for 2017 free agents to really put them over the top, while the Washington Wizards are fighting to prove this John Wall–Bradley Beal tandem can lead to playoff success.
Even the teams at the bottom of their respective conferences — the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers, Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat — are fighting to take the next step with young or rebuilding cores.
But what about the other teams approaching critical free agency decisions this summer who will be looking to the 2017 NBA Playoffs for guidance moving forward? With their backs against the wall, here are five teams heading into crucial postseason runs in 2017, and what their success or failure could mean heading into the offseason.
Mar 22, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) returns up court against the Boston Celtics in the second half at TD Garden. Celtics defeated the Pacers 109-100. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
5. Indiana Pacers
Paul George's free agency is still a year away, but the clock already seems to be winding down on his time with the Indiana Pacers.
Just three years ago, the Pacers were appearing in their second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals and seemed like a dynasty in the making. They were the challengers who would one day topple LeBron James' Miami Heat powerhouse.
But Roy Hibbert was already in decline halfway through the season, Lance Stephenson left in free agency that summer, David West was gone not long after that, the underrated Ian Mahinmi departed last summer and George Hill was traded as well.
Larry Bird's replacements for those players — Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson — have all disappointed. Teague is a free agent this summer, Ellis' game has dropped off quicker than anyone expected, Jefferson is all but washed up and even though he'll be a future star, Myles Turner isn't ready to be the second piece of a dynamic duo with PG-13.
The Pacers have played .500 basketball all season, alternating between promising wins and listless losses — including a recent 15-game stretch where they literally fluctuated from one side of the win-loss column to the other with each passing game.
Preseason predictions that a faster offense would lead to a top-four seed were clearly too optimistic, but the Pacers have still managed to underwhelm. With frustration mounting for the franchise star, not to mention George's reported interest in joining the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018 if Indiana isn't contending again soon, the 2017 NBA Playoffs could be the first major domino to fall.
With the Boston Celtics, Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors playing tremendous basketball at the moment, plus the Cleveland Cavaliers still having LeBron to compensate for their recent struggles, it's unlikely anyone in the bottom-four of the Eastern playoff picture reaches the second round. To that end, Indiana would probably be better off for the long-term if they tanked the rest of the way.
Obviously that's not the way to keep Paul George interested in re-upping for the rest of his prime in Indiana, but unfortunately, this team isn't built to get past the first round…barring some sort of unbelievable playoff series from PG-13, that is.
This summer will be a big one for Bird and the Pacers, who may have to decide between two options. The first is trading George on draft day for a handsome Celtics or Nuggets package, all while hoping the Lakers rumors and recent one-sided DeMarcus Cousins trade haven't lowered his market value too drastically.
The second is an even more difficult path, with Bird trying to find a way to shed the remaining salaries of Jefferson and Ellis and assemble another contender on the fly — an unlikely outcome, especially after last summer's failed attempt to do the same.
The Pacers have a lot riding on how they finish the season. They're not title contenders, their franchise superstar is growing weary of his situation and barring an unexpected run that makes PG-13 feel better about the franchise's future, the summer may hold drastic changes for Indiana if the front office fears losing George for nothing in 2018 free agency.
Jan 4, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) reacts against the Orlando Magic during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
4. Atlanta Hawks
Remember when everyone expected the Atlanta Hawks to be sellers at the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline after trading Kyle Korver? And then remember when the Hawks not only refused to trade Paul Millsap, but actually entered the deadline as buyers?
Yeah, we're thinking the front office is going to come to regret that decision for a long time.
Look, we understand that signing Dwight Howard to a three-year deal was a win-now move. But even with the strides Dennis Schroder has made this year, the Hawks top off in that same "good but not great" territory they've been stuck in every season for the last decade (except that 60-win campaign in 2014-15).
Atlanta doesn't look like a second round playoff team, let alone a serious threat to the Cavaliers — you know, the same team that's bounced them from the playoffs in a combined eight games over the last two seasons, and the same team that Korver was traded to. Why give Cleveland a sharpshooter that makes them even stronger if the plan wasn't to rebuild?
The Hawks have gone 1-8 in nine games without Millsap this season, which speaks to his value for this group. However, as he approaches unrestricted free agency this summer, it's going to take a massive offer to keep him stuck in this NBA no man's land of being good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to actually contend for a title.
That being said, the kind of contract it'll take to prevent him from joining another contender runs the risk of drastically overpaying for a 32-year-old who just had a non-surgical knee procedure and whose game is only going to go downhill from here.
To that end, the Hawks need to put together a playoff run to at least the second round to convince Millsap to stay over the summer. Atlanta is currently pitted against Toronto in a first round 4-5 matchup, but the Milwaukee Bucks have the same record and could drop the Hawks to sixth if they wind up with a better record. That's a distinct possibility if Millsap isn't back soon.
There's something to be said for sustained success, and there's no question re-signing Millsap would help the Hawks keep that going. The only question is whether this core is worth re-investing in when we already know what the ceiling looks like.
At this point, a first round exit and letting Millsap walk might actually be better for the Hawks in the long-term compared to overpaying for an aging, depreciating asset.
Oct 5, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Utah Jazz guard George Hill (3) and forward Gordon Hayward (20) talk mid court during the first half of the game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Utah Jazz defeated the Phoenix Suns 104-99. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
3. Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz have the youngest core on this list, so this may feel like a premature inclusion. Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Trey Lyles and Alec Burks are all under 25 years old! They're fine, right?
Maybe. Injuries have prevented this team from reaching its fullest potential over the last few seasons, and clinching a playoff berth in mid-March — with first round home-court advantage still in their sights — is a step in the right direction.
However, with Gordon Hayward able to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent this summer, plus Derrick Favors hitting the market next summer, there are still plenty of question marks that need more definitive punctuation.
Favors has been unable to stay healthy this season, further complicating matters. Re-signing the 27-year-old Hayward to a max contract is a no-brainer, but with the 30-year-old George Hill hitting free agency, Joe Ingles being a restricted free agent and a potential Favors extension to consider for 2018, the front office will have some tough decisions to weigh in the near future.
Yep. Bringing back Hayward & Ingles is critical. Hill will be very expensive. Gotta gauge market on Favors & Burks. https://t.co/KlDWmvxT2S
— Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) March 25, 2017
A first round playoff loss certainly wouldn't prompt the front office to blow up its young core, but would that kind of disappointment be enough to make Hayward consider teaming up with Brad Stevens, his old Butler head coach, and join a budding Celtics contender?
Even though the Los Angeles Clippers — Utah's likely first round playoff opponent — are playing less than inspired basketball, they might have the edge simply because Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick have all been there before. Utah's best players have never played in a playoff game before, and that disadvantage gets even worse if the Jazz slip to No. 5 and lose home-court.
How the front office proceeds in a money crunch could very well be swayed by a second round playoff appearance…or a disappointing first round defeat, even in this group's first trip to the postseason. After years of waiting for this core to be healthy enough to show the world what it can do, patience might not be the strongest of virtues anymore.
Mar 10, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) talks to forward Serge Ibaka (9) and guard Cory Joseph (6) during a timeout against the Atlanta Hawks in the second quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
2. Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors have been a great story ever since the trade deadline. They were floundering at that point, and it was no secret they needed a game-changing move to seriously challenge the Cavaliers for Eastern supremacy. Not only did they add Serge Ibaka, but they snagged another hard-headed defender to throw at LeBron in a playoff series with P.J. Tucker.
Even after Kyle Lowry went down with a wrist injury, DeMar DeRozan stepped up and Toronto kept on trucking, posting a 12-5 record so far without him. The Raptors obviously need Lowry to contend for a championship, but they've won six straight games and are one game behind the Wizards for the 3-seed.
However, none of that changes the fact that falling short of the NBA Finals again in 2017 will force the front office to make some tough decisions with Lowry, Ibaka, Tucker and Patrick Patterson all hitting free agency this summer. The goal is still to get over that Cleveland hump in the East, but as it currently stands, Toronto would face the defending champs as early as the second round.
On the one hand, it feels like a no-brainer to re-sign as many of those core pieces as possible. The Raptors have climbed to No. 4 in offensive rating and No. 8 in defensive rating for the season, thanks in large part to their two defensive additions at the deadline. I mean, this is a pretty damned good core to work with for the foreseeable future:
Kyle Lowry
DeMar DeRozan
DeMarre Carroll
Serge Ibaka
Jonas ValanciunasCory Joseph
Norm Powell
P.J. Tucker
Patrick Patterson
Bebe#Raptors— Chris Walder (@WalderSports) February 23, 2017
Even if Lowry's wrist injury throws off the team's groove in the postseason or prevents them from reaching their ceiling, the Raptors are as close to title contention as they've ever been. You pay as much as you possibly can to keep something like that together.
However, re-signing Lowry and Ibaka alone would cost a pretty penny, and if — God forbid — the Raptors' playoff demons somehow rear their heads again this year, a first round or second round defeat might discourage Lowry, Ibaka and/or Tucker from re-signing.
From a simple financial perspective, even another conference finals or NBA Finals appearance would require careful thought when it comes to ponying up the dough over the summer. The max contracts it'd take to keep Lowry and Ibaka, not to mention retain valuable role players like Tucker and Patterson, would put the Raptors WAAAAYYYY into the luxury tax.
That's a tricky proposition without a deep playoff run to encourage the front office that this upgraded core is worth its hefty price tag.
Lowry loves Toronto and his backcourt mate DeRozan, and perhaps Ibaka could be swayed to re-sign for the right price after playing for a miserable team like Orlando. But a deep playoff run, even as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, would go a long way in securing this team's long-term future…and possibly even their first championship.
Nov 18, 2016; Sacramento, CA, USA; LA Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) huddles with guard Chris Paul (3) and center DeAndre Jordan (6) and forward Luc Mbah a Moute (12) and guard J.J. Redick (4) during the second half against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. The Clippers defeated the Kings 121-115. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
1. Los Angeles Clippers
Forget about the legitimate title contenders like the Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, Rockets or Celtics. While those teams all have understandably high hopes for the postseason, no star-studded core faces more pressure in the 2017 NBA Playoffs than the Los Angeles Clippers.
Before Chris Paul arrived in L.A. and helped transform the franchise alongside Blake Griffin, the Clippers had enjoyed just two winning seasons in 27 years since relocating from San Diego, and they only made the playoffs four times in that span.
In the Lob City era, the Clippers have made the postseason all five years with CP3, Griffin and DeAndre Jordan running the show. The Clippers have been the premier team in Los Angeles the entire time, and they were one epic Game 6 meltdown away from the franchise's first ever conference finals in 2015.
But that's just the point: A team with an undeniably talented Big Three and a head coach with championship experience hasn't been able to even reach the conference finals, let alone the NBA Finals, in five (going on six) seasons together.
The CP3 Clippers Era, the Durant-Westbrook Thunder, the D'Antoni Suns, etc. All consistently great. Never won a title. https://t.co/jmbrPxrvth
— Justin Russo (@FlyByKnite) February 2, 2017
With CP3, Griffin and J.J. Redick being injury-prone and all three potentially hitting unrestricted free agency this summer, even the Clippers' .652 win percentage since the 2011-12 season jumpstarted the Lob City era may not be enough to keep a good thing together.
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Chris Paul will turn 32 in May and is still looking for his first conference finals appearance. Suddenly his former team, the New Orleans Pelicans, looks like a more attractive free agency destination with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, and even if that reunion isn't in order, other playoff contenders will be clamoring for a floor general of his ilk.
Griffin is still only 28 despite his recent injury woes, and will command a max contract wherever he goes. Could a contender like Boston swoop in and offer him a more preferable path to the Finals, especially if the Clippers fall disappointingly short in a Western bloodbath again?
Redick is a valuable sharpshooter who will draw great interest from playoff contenders. His three-point marksmanship will age well, even as he approaches his 33rd birthday, so he'll fetch a high price tag in free agency. Even if the Clippers re-sign CP3 and Griffin to keep their Big Three intact, losing Redick could be just as fatal to Lob City's chances of contending.
The Clippers only trail Utah by 1.5 games for home-court advantage in the first round, but the tell-tale signs of the end of an era are there. Los Angeles has been playing uninspired basketball lately, prompting bluntly honest comments from Redick and reports that Griffin is open to leaving L.A. this summer.
This is not the best Clippers team we've seen, and after so many heart-wrenching, stomach-turning playoff collapses, they'll have to do the unthinkable to convince everyone involved to ride it out: Advance to at least the conference finals, unseating Western powerhouses like Utah, Houston, San Antonio or even Golden State along the way.
Barring a radical playoff breakthrough, the most successful era of Los Angeles Clippers history could be over without a single title — or even conference finals appearance — to its name.
