Major League Baseball

NL East becomes interesting in a flash

Published Jan. 5, 2012 12:00 a.m. ET

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Bob Klapisch

It seems like the NL East is in a state of constant churn these days: Prince Fielder is reportedly leaning toward the Nationals, where he’d join newcomer Gio Gonzalez. Carlos Zambrano is headed to the Marlins, where he’ll team up with fellow transplants Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle. And the Phillies gave Jonathan Papelbon the richest contract for a reliever in history.

To all this, we need to blink a few times, just for clarity’s sake. It’s going to be a wild summer — or as one major league executive said this week, “the NL East might’ve turned into the most interesting division in baseball, which I didn’t think would be possible in one offseason.”

With the exception of the Mets, every team considers itself worthy of finishing on top. The Marlins, after all, now have the game’s best leadoff hitter in Reyes and a proven innings-eater in Buehrle. Depending on how you feel about him, Ozzie Guillen will act as the great unifier — or gasoline accelerant.

The Braves, despite a September collapse, still have the best bullpen in the NL. The Nationals? They could be the most lethal threat of all if Fielder picks them as his new employer.

But hold on. The Phillies still have the best rotation in the majors — and everyone’s healthy, too. The East’s insurgents have to prove their aces can hold up over 30 starts in 2012, which is no small task considering they were all injured at one point in 2011.

Here’s a look at the wounded/recovering pitchers, and why they may (or may not) be ready to stand up to the Phillies’ empire.

BRAVES

Tim Hudson: The good news for the Braves’ right-hander is that he might actually pitch without pain in 2012. If so, it would be the first time in two years, leaving open the possibility that Hudson could actually surpass his 16 wins and 3.22 ERA in 2011.

The bad news is that Hudson required surgery this offseason to repair a herniated disk in his back. That’s not an insignificant procedure for a 36-year-old athlete who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008.

Can Hudson be ready for spring training? The Braves believe so, fully aware he’s their best weapon to beat Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee in a must-win game in, say, September. What’s encouraging for the Braves is that, even with the discomfort, most of Hudson’s peripheral stats remained at or near their career norms; he actually posted his lowest WHIP (1.14) since 2003.

As always, Hudson figures to come to camp in superb shape, so there’s every reason to believe he’ll remain a steady fixture at the front of the rotation. He might even improve. But until Hudson actually steps on a mound, he’s still, officially, a question mark.

Tommy Hanson: The prognosis on Hanson is less clear-cut than Hudson’s because of multiple injuries, one of which is chronic. Hanson was shut down after Aug. 7 because of a tear in his rotator cuff, which was coupled with tendinitis.

Both issues have been addressed, although the Braves’ doctors chose not to operate. Instead, rest and an offseason rehab program were implemented to strengthen the muscles in Hanson’s shoulder. Given his age (25) Hanson has a good chance of a full recovery, even without the help of a surgeon’s knife. But it’s also worth noting that Hanson’s workload increased by almost 60 percent between 2009-10 — hence, the “Verducci Effect” which prophesizes injury to pitchers who are overused in their second seasons.

Some talent evaluators say Hanson’s troubles are a less a result of innings than bad mechanics. “He’s all arm,” one scout said, not necessarily in a flattering way. The big question, of course, is whether Hanson can stay off the DL in 2012. Uncertainty about his health, for now, is keeping Atlanta from moving Jair Jurrjens.

NATIONALS

Stephen Strasburg: The Nats decided to bring Strasburg back last September following Tommy John surgery in 2010. The decision to do so was for Strasburg’s benefit; four of the five starts were successful, assuring the right-hander his elbow had healed. The outlook for 2012 is positive.

But that’s not to say the Nationals are home free: the onus is on management, and Davey Johnson in particular, to protect Strasburg from future injury. GM Mike Rizzo says an innings-limit will be imposed, although he’s declined to reveal exactly where Strasburg’s ceiling is. But it’s the smart move, considering A) he’s Washington’s best pitcher, and B) his mechanics will always be in question.

Remember what White Sox’s pitching coach Don Cooper said in mid-summer 2010. He told Sirius-XM Radio, “I’m not wishing (Strasburg) bad, but he does something with his arm that is difficult, in my mind, to pitch a whole lot of innings on.”

Joe Kerrigan, who’s served as a pitching coach for many teams throughout his career, noted how the pre-surgery Strasburg featured “no leg-lift, no load, using mostly arm.”

It’s possible the Nationals have worked with Strasburg to maximize his lower half. Better mechanics, and a hard ceiling, are key to keeping his gifts on the field.

MARLINS

Josh Johnson: Signing Buehrle was a huge boost to the Marlins’ chances in 2012, just as adding Gio Gonzalez will help the Nats. But as Washington’s fortunes are more directly linked to Strasburg, the Marlins need their ace — Johnson — to return to form.

The right-hander was close to unhittable in his nine starts last season — a 1.64 ERA speaks to how difficult it was to square up on him. But Johnson began suffering from shoulder inflammation that ultimately shut him down for the season.

The good news is that, according to noted orthopedist James Andrews, there was no structural damage in Johnson’s arm. The troubling aspect, however, is that the Marlins chose not to let Johnson pitch in late September after he was eligible to come off the 60-day disabled list.

For now, the team has nothing but glowing news about Johnson’s recovery: he’s been throwing this offseason without pain. But the real test comes in spring training — or, more accurately, after Opening Day.

METS

Johan Santana: We’re including Santana not because the Mets have any chance of catching the Phillies this season — they don’t — but because their ace is so highly respected around the game and so many of his peers are pulling for his recovery.

Santana underwent surgery in September 2010 to repair the anterior capsule in his pitching shoulder. Despite the team’s initial prediction that the lefthander would be back by the All-Star break, Santana missed all of 2011. On Thursday GM Sandy Alderson said he was hopeful Santana's recovery would be complete by Opening Day, although, obviously, the Mets can't say for sure.

The severity of Santana’s injury is what’s keeping him sidelined. One member of the organization said, “(doctors) had to go very, very deep into the shoulder to fix it. It’s the complete opposite of a ‘scope (arthroscopic procedure).”

Chien Ming Wang had the same surgery in 2009, missed all of 2010 and returned to the Nationals in 2011. He was 4-3 with a 4.04 ERA. Mark Prior had his anterior capsule repaired in 2007 and has not pitched in the big leagues since.

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