College Basketball

Sammy P's Betting Tip Sheet: Richmond is a live underdog vs. Providence

Updated Mar. 17, 2022 7:06 p.m. ET

Disclaimer: In the sports betting world, any information that can give you an edge is valuable. Professional bettors look for tips – confirmed and otherwise – that improve their odds. FOX Sports’ Vegas Insider, Sammy P, is sharing tips he is getting with you, the fan at home. While every tip is sourced, these are not official reports from teams, players or leagues, nor are they sourced with multiple confirmations like traditional news. Readers who act on this information do so at their own risk.

No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 4 Providence

The first sportsbook in the world opened Providence -4, and that lasted approximately 45 seconds. The market is down to Richmond +2.5, and the professionals I've spoken to have not only taken Richmond +4, +3.5 and +3, they've also taken the Spiders on the moneyline. They believe Providence is good, not great, and they think Richmond is going to win this game outright. I talked to one guy who said that they bet Richmond literally as soon as they could.

When a team opens at -4 and moves to -2.5 within five minutes, that tells me everything I need to know.

PICK: Richmond (+120 at FOX Bet) to win outright

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

Tuesday, 1/18, 3 p.m. ET: Reports out of the Bay Area are not great surrounding the health of Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo took a hit to his throwing shoulder during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has been ultra-conservative on the matter, calling it a "slight shoulder sprain." We'll get more concrete information soon when San Francisco practices later today.

I've spoken to multiple bookmakers who are bracing for the likelihood that Garoppolo is nowhere near 100% heading into Saturday's game at Green Bay — and there's a decent chance he doesn't play. The betting line moved from -5 to -5.5 and -6 late Tuesday morning after a couple of professional bettors made positions on the Packers in reaction to these rumors. If he's unable to go, expect that line to rocket through 7 to -8 or -8.5, but that won't happen unless news becomes official later in the week.

I would still argue that Packers -5.5/6 is a good bet given what we could learn in the coming days.

"He's an average quarterback to begin with," one Las Vegas executive told FOX Sports. "If he's as dinged up as the rumors say, and he has to fight through single-digit temperatures with a bad shoulder, the game could get ugly."

PICK: Packers (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points

PREVIOUS TIPS

No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Utah

Monday, 12/27, 7:20 p.m. ET: There appears to be a mass opt-out exodus at Ohio State ahead of the Rose Bowl. Anybody who has a near future in the NFL — like star wideout Chris Olave — is not expected to play.

Meanwhile, Utah is ecstatic to be in a bowl of this stature, and everybody in that program is champing at the bit at the chance to win a big game against a power program.

Take the Utes +5.5 before this number crashes.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Thursday, 11/4, 4:15 p.m. ET: There are serious rumblings about quarterback Kyler Murray not being available for the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. One source told me that the Birds could also be down a high-profile wide receiver as well. Yikes.

Sharp money already showed for the Niners earlier in the week, moving the line from +3 down to a pick 'em, and that line will keep running once the Murray news is confirmed closer to the weekend. This market could realistically reach San Francisco -3 by kickoff.

Get your Niners bets and teasers in now before this goes public.

Sunday, 11/7, 9:40 a.m. ET: According to multiple reports, Murray traveled with the Cardinals but is not expected to play.

Sunday, 11/7, 3 p.m. ET: Murray was ruled out for Week 9, according to multiple reports.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College

Friday, 11/5, 3 p.m. ET: Expect news to drop in the next couple hours that Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec will return for the Eagles on Friday night against Virginia Tech. It was rumored back in mid-September that Jurkovec would likely miss the rest of the season, but he has been taking snaps with the starters all week and has reportedly been cleared to play.

Most of the +3s in the betting market have disappeared, and I spoke with multiple bookmakers that all believe Jurkovec will go. It's impossible to know how sharp he'll be in his first game back, but Boston College should be the favorite either way. Expect this game to close around a pick 'em.

Friday, 11/5, 6:40 p.m. ET: Action Network's Brett McMurphy reports Jurkovec will start.

Illinois @ No. 7 Penn State

Friday, 10/22, 6:15 p.m. ET: We were waiting all week to figure out if Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford was going to go on Saturday. He'd been practicing all week, but head coach James Franklin wasn't saying anything.

It's now clear from people around Happy Valley that he's going to be ready — and when that is announced, the first half line of Penn State -13.5 is going to rocket through 14 and could land as high as 14.5 or 15.

Clifford playing for Penn State opens up their entire offense, because he's an upper-tier, accurate quarterback who has chemistry with his receivers. We didn't want to play Penn State if the Nittany Lions were down to their backups, because the backups aren't great passers. Clifford is a good passer, and you have to respect the running game, too.

All that said, there's a chance Penn State is up so big at half that they pull the starters in the second half, which means we're better off taking the first half wager.

Purdue @ No. 2 Iowa

Thursday, 10/14, 11 a.m. ET: All of a sudden, the Boilermakers are a banged up bunch. I'm hearing Purdue will be without multiple offensive playmakers this weekend and head coach Jeff Brohm still can't decide who his starting quarterback is. You know the old adage: if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks.

Brohm will likely keep his decision – Aidan O'Connell or Jack Plummer – close to the vest until Saturday, but I don't think it even matters. Iowa's defense (+15 in turnover margin) has been sensational inside the red zone and the Hawkeyes are first in the Big Ten in points allowed (13.0 points per game) and third in passing defense (183.7 yards per game). Good luck moving the ball at Kinnick Stadium, where offense goes to die.

Expect the Hawkeyes to key in on Purdue receiver David Bell and dare the Boilermakers to beat them elsewhere. I like Iowa by two touchdowns.

PICK: Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 11.5 points

Houston @ Tulane (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday)

Wednesday, 10/6, 8:30 p.m. ET: Tulane's defense has been an absolute mess this season. The Green Wave continue to search for answers on that side of the ball, and nothing is working. Giving up 201 points in five games (40.2 PPG) just isn't gonna cut it, and the ‘D' is running out of gas. Tulane has already been gashed by Oklahoma (430 total yards), Ole Miss (707), UAB (433) and ECU (612) in four losses this season.

We’re hearing that the defensive schematics and personnel are deeper-rooted issues, and there don’t appear to be any instant solutions. There are some serious concerns around New Orleans about stopping Houston QB Clayton Tune. As long as Tune doesn’t turn into a pumpkin and turn the ball over three times, this one could get ugly.

Let’s lay -6 before the market gets to 7.

PICK: Houston Cougars -6 (-110) at FOX Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

Thursday, 9/30, 11:30 a.m. ET: Bucs tight end Rob Gronkowski's ribs are pretty battered from a hit by Rams linebacker Terrell Lewis this past weekend. Gronk did not practice Wednesday, and sources tell me that he's likely out for Sunday night's game in Foxborough.

This news swings open the door for a decent bet on O.J. Howard "Over" 19.5 receiving yards, given his expected increase in targets (Howard is also +450 to score a touchdown). If you bet ahead of the expected injury announcement, you'll be rewarded with advantageous numbers and prices before the sportsbooks can adjust.

Friday, 10/1, approximately 4 p.m. ET: The Bucs officially listed Gronkowski as "Doubtful" for Sunday's game, as reported by Adam Schefter:

Saturday, 10/2, 12:23 p.m. ET: According to Schefter, Gronkowski did not make the trip to New England. He will be out Sunday night.

PICK: O.J. Howard OVER 19.5 receiving yards at FOX Bet

Tennessee @ Missouri

Thursday, 9/30, 8 a.m. ET: Reports out of Knoxville are sounding better and better about Vols quarterback Hendon Hooker being close to 100% for this Saturday's showdown at Mizzou. Hooker is easily Josh Heupel's best QB, and if he's available, he's clearly the guy over Joe Milton.

Hooker (46-for-70, 613 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT) is a much more dangerous passer than Milton (20-for-43, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) and he's definitely more valuable to the point spread. I'll gladly scoop that +3 on Tennessee on the assumption Hooker is cleared to play this weekend.

PICK: Tennessee +3 at FOX Bet

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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