Patriots vs. Chargers 2025 Wild Card Round Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 11

In the AFC Wild Card round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, the New England Patriots will face off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5). An over/under of 46.5 points has been set for the matchup.

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Patriots vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Lines

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Patriots vs. Chargers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Patriots (-3.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (46.5)
  
• Prediction: Patriots 28 - Chargers 17

How to Watch New England vs. Los Angeles

• Game date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• TV: NBC/Peacock
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Patriots vs. Chargers Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, New England has put up three wins versus Los Angeles.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Los Angeles has scored 111 points, while New England has accumulated 96.

New England Betting Info

• In 17 New England games this year, it has 11 wins against the spread.
• When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season, the Patriots have an ATS record of 7-3.
• New England games this year have gone over the total in 11 out of 17 opportunities (64.7%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Patriots are 10-1, earning a victory 90.9% of the time.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Patriots' implied win probability is 65.8%.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Drake Maye has 4,394 passing yards (fourth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He has completed 72.0% of his attempts, averaging 258.5 yards per game and 8.9 per attempt.
• In addition to his passing statistics, Maye has 450 rushing yards (third on the Patriots), with four rushing touchdowns.
• TreVeyon Henderson has totaled 911 rushing yards with nine touchdowns (53.6 yards per game across 17 games). His 5.1 yards per attempt rank fifth in the NFL.
• Henderson has 35 catches on 42 targets for 221 yards. He has one receiving TD.
• Rhamondre Stevenson's output on the ground this season includes 603 yards and seven TDs. He is averaging 43.1 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (16th in the NFL).
• Stevenson has 32 receptions on 37 targets for 345 yards, with two receiving TDs.
• Stefon Diggs has 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. He's been targeted 102 times in the passing game, and averages 5.0 receptions and 59.6 yards in 17 games played.

Defense

• Over on the defensive side, Marcus Jones has 65 tackles, 8.0 TFL, two sacks, and three interceptions in 2025.
• Jaylinn Hawkins has 70 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and four interceptions this season. He's fifth on the Patriots in tackles.
• Robert Spillane has collected 97 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions this year. He leads the Patriots in tackles.
• This season, Harold Landry has 49 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 8.5 sacks.

Los Angeles Betting Info

• Los Angeles has covered the spread nine times this year (9-8-0).
• The Chargers have covered the spread twice this season when underdogs by 3.5 points or more (in three chances).
• Los Angeles' games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this year.
• The Chargers have won four of the five games they've played as underdogs this season.
• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 38.5% chance of a victory for the Chargers.

Chargers Stats

Los Angeles' Key Players

Offense

• In 16 games played this year, Justin Herbert has amassed 3,727 passing yards (ninth-best in the NFL), with 26 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) against 13 interceptions and completing 66.4% of his attempts.
• On the ground, Herbert has added two rushing touchdowns and 498 rushing yards (third on the Chargers).
• Quentin Johnston has 51 catches for 735 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 85 times and averages 3.9 receptions per game in 13 games played.
• So far this season, Ladd McConkey has caught 66 passes for 789 receiving yards with six touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 106 total times and is averaging 4.1 receptions per game over 16 games played.
• Omarion Hampton averages 60.6 rushing yards per game through nine games (545 total yards), with four rushing touchdowns.
• Hampton also has 192 receiving yards (21.3 per game) on 32 catches (3.6 per game). He has been targeted 35 times with one touchdown reception.

Defense

• Tuli Tuipulotu's 2025 showing includes 45 tackles, 20.0 TFL, and 13 sacks in 15 games.
• Daiyan Henley has 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Chargers) to go with 5.0 TFL, 101 tackles, and two interceptions.
• Derwin James has 2.0 sacks in addition to his 6.0 TFL, 94 tackles, and three interceptions.
• Odafe Oweh's stat sheet includes 38 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 7.5 sacks in 17 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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New England Patriots

Los Angeles Chargers