Cowboys vs. Commanders 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 25

The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9.5) over the Washington Commanders (4-11), despite the Cowboys having dropped three games in a row. The total for this one is set at 50.5 points.

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Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

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Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Commanders (+9.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (50.5)
  
• Prediction: Cowboys 27 - Commanders 26

How to Watch Dallas vs. Washington

• Game date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: Northwest Stadium
• Location: Landover, Maryland
• TV: Netflix
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Cowboys vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Dallas has totaled four wins against Washington.
• Washington has been outscored by 89 points in its last five tilts against Dallas.

Dallas Betting Info

• In 15 Dallas games this year, it has seven wins against the spread.
• Dallas games this year have gone over the total in 10 out of 15 opportunities (66.7%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Cowboys are 3-5 (winning 37.5% of the time).
• The Cowboys have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 83.3%.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

• Dak Prescott has 4,175 passing yards (second in the NFL), 28 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He has completed 68.5% of his passes, averaging 278.3 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
• He has also rushed for 154 yards (second on the Cowboys) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 10.3 rushing yards per game.
• Javonte Williams' rushing output this season includes 1,147 yards (sixth in the NFL) and 10 TDs. He's averaging 76.5 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (13th in the NFL).
• Williams has 35 catches on 49 targets for 137 yards. He has two receiving TDs.
• George Pickens has nine touchdown catches this season (seventh in the NFL), and has 88 receptions (eighth in the NFL) for 1,342 yards (third in the NFL) on 129 targets, while averaging 5.9 catches and 89.5 yards per game.
• CeeDee Lamb averages 6.3 receptions and 93.4 yards per game, and has 1,027 total receiving yards (10th in the NFL) and 69 catches. He's gotten 106 total targets, and has caught three touchdown passes.

Defense

• On the defensive side, Quinnen Williams has one interception to go with 48 tackles, nine TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one pass defended in 2025.
• Kenneth Murray has 77 tackles, four TFL, one sack, and two passes defended.
• This season, Osa Odighizuwa has recorded three sacks (third on the Cowboys) in addition to his six TFL and 39 tackles.
• This season, Shemar James has 61 tackles, two TFL, and one sack.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread five times in 15 games with a set total.
• The Commanders have yet to cover the spread this season when underdogs by 9.5 points or more.
• This season, eight Washington games have gone over the point total.
• The Commanders have been underdogs in 11 games this season and won two (18.2%) of those contests.
• The implied probability of a win by the Commanders based on the moneyline is 20.8%.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• In 10 games played this year, Marcus Mariota has racked up 1,695 passing yards, while throwing 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions and completing 61.2% of his passes.
• Mariota has also rushed for one touchdown and 297 yards (third on the Commanders).
• Through seven games, Jayden Daniels has 1,262 passing yards, while throwing eight touchdowns against three interceptions and completing 60.6% of his passes.
• Daniels also has two rushing touchdowns and 278 rushing yards (fourth on the Commanders).
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt is averaging 44.7 rushing yards per game this season (671 total yards), while scoring six rushing touchdowns.
• Deebo Samuel has been targeted 90 times, resulting in 68 catches for 639 yards .

Defense

• Bobby Wagner's 2025 effort includes 148 tackles, eight TFL, four sacks, and two interceptions through 15 games. He leads the Commanders and is fourth in the NFL in tackles.
• Frankie Luvu's stats include 78 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and five passes defended.
• Mike Sainristil has one TFL, 66 tackles, and four interceptions in the 2025 campaign.
• Quan Martin has 94 tackles, one TFL, and three passes defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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