Bills vs. Patriots 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 5

The Buffalo Bills (4-0) will be aiming to extend a four-game winning run against the New England Patriots (2-2). The Bills are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -7.5). The total for this one is set at 50.5 points.

Keep up with the 2025 NFL season on FOX Sports.

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Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Bills (-7.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (50.5)
  
• Prediction: Bills 30 - Patriots 21

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New England

• Game date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: NBC
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Bills vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head meetings, Buffalo has taken down New England three times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has scored 127 points against New England, while surrendering only 117 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo has covered the spread on two occasions in 2025.
• The Bills have not covered the spread this season (0-2 ATS) when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites.
• Buffalo has combined with its opponent to gone over the point total in 75% of its contests this year (three times over four games with a set point total).
• The Bills have won each of the three games they were favored on the moneyline this season.
• Looking at this matchup's moneyline, the Bills' implied win probability is 79.8%.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has 964 passing yards (eighth in the NFL), seven touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and one interception this year. He has completed 70.2% of his passes, averaging 241 yards per game and 8 per attempt.
• He has added 159 rushing yards (39.8 per game) and three touchdowns on the ground.
• James Cook has recorded 401 rushing yards (second in the NFL) with five touchdowns (100.3 yards per game over four games). His 5.3 yards per attempt rank eighth in the NFL.
• He has also caught 12 passes (on 13 targets) for 89 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 22.3 receiving yards and three catches per game.
• In the passing attack, Dalton Kincaid, has contributed with 179 receiving yards and three touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) after grabbing 14 balls on 18 targets. Per game, he's averaging 44.8 yards and 3.5 receptions over four games.
• Khalil Shakir averages four receptions and 47.5 yards per game, and has 190 total receiving yards and 16 catches. He's gotten 20 total targets, and has caught two touchdown passes.

Defense

• On the defensive side, Joey Bosa has eight tackles, two TFL, and two sacks in 2025.
• Terrel Bernard has two TFL, 20 tackles, and one interception.
• This season, Cole Bishop has put up one sack (third on the Bills) to go with his one TFL, 19 tackles, and one interception.
• This season, Tre'Davious White has 15 tackles and three TFL.

New England Betting Info

• New England has covered the spread two times this season (2-2-0).
• This season, New England games have hit the over twice.
• The Patriots have split the two games they've played as underdogs this season.
• The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 24.4%.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Drake Maye has thrown for 988 yards this year (to rank seventh in the NFL), with seven touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and two interceptions. He is completing 74% of his attempts while averaging 247 yards per game and 8 per attempt.
• He's added 98 yards on the ground (second on the Patriots), while scoring two rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 24.5 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt.
• Hunter Henry has 204 receiving yards and three touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) on 15 receptions, while being targeted 24 times.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season, but has totaled 125 rushing yards (31.3 per game and 4 per attempt).
• Stevenson's stat sheet includes 11 receptions (2.8 per game) on 12 targets for 141 yards (35.3 per game), but he has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
• TreVeyon Henderson has 97 rushing yards (third on the Patriots) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 24.3 yards per game and 3.7 per attempt (34th in the NFL).
• Henderson has also caught 13 passes for 87 yards (sixth on the Patriots). He's been targeted 13 times and averages 21.8 yards per game.

Defense

• Harold Landry has 16 tackles, four TFL, and 3.5 sacks in 2025.
• Robert Spillane's stat sheet includes one interception as well as 31 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and two passes defended.
• Jaylinn Hawkins has recorded one sack (fourth on the Patriots) as well as two TFL, 19 tackles, and one interception in the 2025 campaign.
• Craig Woodson has registered four TFL and 23 tackles through four games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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