Bills vs. Patriots 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 14

The New England Patriots (11-2) will be aiming to continue a 10-game winning run against the Buffalo Bills (9-4). Despite that, the Bills are slim favorites (-2.5). The expected point total for the matchup is set at 49.5.

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Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

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Bills vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Patriots (+2.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (49.5)
  
• Prediction: Patriots 26 - Bills 23

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New England

• Game date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• TV: CBS
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Bills vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head bouts, New England has beaten Buffalo three times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, New England has scored 117 points against Buffalo, while allowing only 112 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Against the spread, Buffalo is 6-7-0 this season.
• The Bills are 4-7 ATS this season when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
• Buffalo contests this year have hit the over 46.2% of the time (six times in 13 games with a set point total).
• When playing as moneyline favorites, the Bills are 7-4, picking up a victory 63.6% of the time.
• Looking at this game's moneyline, the Bills' implied win probability is 58.7%.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has passed for 3,083 yards (eighth in the NFL), 22 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He averages 237.2 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt, while completing 70.1% of his attempts.
• He has added 487 rushing yards (37.5 per game) and 12 touchdowns on the ground.
• James Cook has racked up 1,308 rushing yards (second in the NFL) with eight touchdowns (100.6 yards per game over 13 games). His 5.3 yards per attempt rank sixth in the NFL.
• Cook's 31 targets in the passing game have turned into 29 catches (2.2 per game) for 267 yards (20.5 per game) and one touchdown.
• Khalil Shakir has four touchdown catches this season, and has 57 catches for 585 yards on 78 targets, while averaging 4.4 catches and 45 yards per game.
• Dalton Kincaid averages 3.7 receptions and 54.3 yards per game, and has 489 total receiving yards and 33 catches. He's gotten 41 total targets, and has caught five touchdown passes.

Defense

• On the defensive side, Cole Bishop has two sacks to go with three TFL, 71 tackles, and three interceptions in 2025.
• Joey Bosa has 26 tackles, eight TFL, and five sacks this season.
• Terrel Bernard has put up one interception and has added 56 tackles, seven TFL, and three passes defended.
• This season, Christian Benford has 39 tackles, four TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions.

New England Betting Info

• New England has covered the spread eight times over 13 games with a set total.
• The Patriots are 3-1 ATS when underdogs by 2.5 points or more this year.
• This season, New England games have hit the over seven times.
• This season, the Patriots have been the underdog four times and won three of those games.
• The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 45.5%.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• In 13 games played this year, Drake Maye has racked up 3,412 passing yards (second-best in the NFL), while throwing 23 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) against six interceptions and completing 71.5% of his attempts.
• On the ground, Maye has added two rushing touchdowns and 319 rushing yards (third on the Patriots).
• TreVeyon Henderson has scored five rushing touchdowns, while totaling 625 rushing yards (4.8 per attempt and 48.1 per game).
• Henderson has added 32 receptions (2.5 per game) for 199 yards (15.3 per game) with one receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 38 times in the passing game.
• This season, Hunter Henry has caught 45 passes for 610 receiving yards with five touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 69 total times and is averaging 3.5 receptions per game over 13 games played.
• Stefon Diggs has 705 receiving yards and three touchdowns from 64 receptions after getting 79 targets.

Defense

• Robert Spillane has put up one sack to go with four TFL, 97 tackles, and two interceptions over 13 games in 2025.
• Harold Landry has 46 tackles, nine TFL, and 7.5 sacks.
• Marcus Jones has recorded one sack as well as six TFL, 50 tackles, and three interceptions in the 2025 campaign.
• Jaylinn Hawkins has intercepted two passes and also has 50 tackles, three TFL, 1.5 sacks, and three passes defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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