Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 1

Published Sep. 27, 2023 1:05 p.m. ET

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Having taken three straight, the Miami Dolphins (3-0) will play the Buffalo Bills (2-1). Despite that, the Bills are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). An over/under of 53.5 points has been set for the matchup.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-3)
  
• Pick OU: Over (53.5)
  
• Prediction: Buffalo 30 - Miami 24

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Miami

• Game Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on CBS

Bills vs. Dolphins Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Buffalo has totaled four wins against Miami.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has racked up 153 points against Miami, while surrendering only 122 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo went 8-8-0 ATS last season.
• As 3-point favorites or more, the Bills went 6-10 against the spread last year.
• Last season, the combined scoring went over the point total six times in Buffalo games.
• The Bills won 81.2% of the games last season when they were favored on the moneyline (13-3).
• When it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -148 or shorter, Buffalo went 13-4 (76.5%).
• The Bills have an implied moneyline win probability of 59.7% in this contest.

Bills Stats (2022)

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen averaged 7.6 passing yards per attempt (sixth in the NFL) and 267.7 yards per game last year, completing 63.3% of his passes on the way to 4,283 total yards (seventh in the NFL), 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 14 interceptions in 16 games.
• He added 762 yards on the ground, while scoring seven rushing touchdowns. He averaged 47.6 yards per game and 6.1 per attempt.
• Stefon Diggs had 108 catches (fourth in the NFL) for 1,429 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 11 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL). He was targeted 154 times and averaged 6.8 receptions per game over 16 games played.
• Latavius Murray rushed for six touchdowns last year and totaled 760 rushing yards (58.5 per game and 4.4 per carry).
• In addition to his ground game, Murray pulled down 27 passes (on 35 targets) for 132 yards. He averaged 10.2 yards per game.
• Gabriel Davis had 48 catches for 836 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. He averaged 3.2 yards per game over 15 games and was targeted 93 times.

Defense

• Matt Milano had 1.5 sacks to go with 12.0 TFL, 99 tackles, and three interceptions over 15 games in 2022.
• Leonard Floyd had 59 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and nine sacks for the Rams.
• Taron Johnson had 89 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and one interception in the 2022 campaign.
• Damar Hamlin registered 1.5 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL and 88 tackles over 15 games.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami compiled an 8-8-1 record against the spread last year.
• Against the spread, as underdogs of 3 points or more, the Dolphins went 5-3 last year.
• In Miami games last year, combined scoring went over the point total eight times.
• Last season, the Dolphins were the underdog seven times and won two of those games.
• Miami was 2-6 last season when entering a game as the underdog by +124 or more on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Dolphins have a 44.6% chance to win.

Dolphins Stats (2022)

Miami's Key Players

Offense

• Tua Tagovailoa threw for 3,548 yards last year, with 25 TDs (eighth in the NFL) and eight interceptions. He completed 64.8% of his passes, averaging 272.9 yards per game and 8.9 per attempt.
• Tyreek Hill had 119 receptions (second in the NFL) for 1,710 yards (second in the NFL) and seven receiving TDs. He was targeted 170 times and averaged 7.0 catches in 17 games.
• Last season, Jaylen Waddle caught 75 passes for 1,356 yards (seventh in the NFL) and eight TDs . He was targeted 117 times, and averaged 4.4 receptions in 17 games.
• Raheem Mostert had 891 rushing yards and three rushing TDs, averaging 55.7 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
• Mostert also tacked on 31 catches (1.9 per game) for 202 yards (12.6 per game) and two TDs. He was on the end of 42 targets.

Defense

• Christian Wilkins had 3.5 sacks to go along with 16.0 TFL and 98 tackles in his 17 games in 2022.
• Jerome Baker totaled 4.0 sacks to go along with his 6.0 TFL and 100 tackles in 17 games.
• Jevon Holland recorded 1.5 sacks and 1.0 TFL, 93 tackles, and two interceptions during the 2022 campaign.
• Jaelan Phillips totaled 7.0 sacks plus 8.0 TFL and 61 tackles.

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NFL - Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills - 10/01/2023