Warriors vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 19

The Golden State Warriors (24-19) aim to build on a three-game home winning streak when hosting the Miami Heat (22-20) on January 19, 2026. The Warriors square off against the Heat in a game that Golden State is currently a favorite by 5 points. The game has a point total of 239.5.

Here is everything you need to know to know about the Warriors-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Warriors vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Monday, January 19, 2026 at 10 p.m. ET
• Where: Chase Center in San Francisco, California
• TV: FDSSUN and NBCS-BA
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Warriors vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 5)
O/U Pick: Under (239.5)
Score Prediction: Warriors 119 - Heat 115

Warriors vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Of 43 games so far this year, the Warriors have had 13 with over 239.5 points scored, their current matchup's point total.
• This year, 19 of the Heat's 42 games have had a combined total of more than 239.5 points scored.
• These two teams average a combined 235.7 points per game, 3.8 fewer points than the over/under of 239.5 set for this game.
• The Warriors and the Heat have seen their opponents average a combined 8.3 fewer points per game than the point total of 239.5 set in this matchup.
• Golden State has been the favorite in 32 games this season and has come away with the win 20 times (62.5%) in those contests.
• Miami has won in 11, or 45.8%, of the 24 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
• After the last one head-to-head matchups, Miami has a 1-0 record against Golden State.
• The Heat also have a 1-0 advantage against the spread when matched up with the Warriors.
• Against the point spread, the Warriors have covered in three consecutive games, and were favored in all of those games.

Warriors Recent Trends

• The Warriors are 5-5 against the spread and 7-3 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Golden State has averaged a total of 231.6 combined points in its last 10 games, 7.9 less than this matchup's over/under of 239.5.
• The Warriors have 20 wins against the spread in 43 games this year.
• So far this season, Golden State has been installed as favorites by a 5-point margin or more 21 times and are 12-8-1 ATS in those contests.
• The Warriors have eclipsed the over/under in 57.1% of their opportunities this year (24 times in 42 games with a set point total).
• The Warriors average just 1.7 fewer points per game (116.2) than the Heat allow (117.9).
• When Golden State puts up more than 117.9 points, it is 15-8-1 against the spread and 19-5 overall.
• This season, the Warriors have a 46.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.1% higher than the 46% of shots the Heat's opponents have hit.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in a higher percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered 12 times in 22 opportunities when playing at home, and they've covered eight times in 21 opportunities in away games.
• Golden State has exceeded the over/under in a lower percentage of home games (54.5%) than games on the road (57.1%).
• The Warriors have fared better as a moneyline favorite at home, sporting a home record of 15-4, compared to going 5-8 on the road.

Warriors Recent Stats

Warriors Leaders

• Jimmy Butler III posts 20.1 points, 4.9 assists and 5.6 rebounds per contest.
• Stephen Curry posts 27.6 points, 3.8 boards and 4.9 assists per contest, shooting 47% from the floor and 38.6% from downtown with 4.5 made 3-pointers per contest (first in NBA).
• Brandin Podziemski puts up 12 points, 4.4 boards and 3.2 assists per contest, shooting 46.9% from the floor and 40.9% from beyond the arc with 1.8 made treys per contest.
• Moses Moody puts up 10.6 points, 3 boards and 1.5 assists per contest, shooting 42.1% from the field and 39.2% from beyond the arc with 2.2 made treys per game.
• Quinten Post puts up 7.8 points, 3.9 boards and 1.4 assists per game, shooting 43.2% from the field and 33.5% from beyond the arc with 1.5 made 3-pointers per contest.

Warriors Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 5-5 overall over their last 10 games.
• Miami has averaged a total of 237.1 combined points over its last 10 games, 2.4 less than this matchup's total of 239.5.
• Against the spread, the Heat are 24-17-1 this season.
• This season, Miami has an ATS record of 7-4-1 in its 12 games as an underdog of 5 points or more.
• Heat games this year have gone over the total in 21 of 42 opportunities (50%).
• The Heat's 119.5 points per game are 6.2 more points than the 113.3 the Warriors allow.
• When it scores more than 113.3 points, Miami is 20-7 against the spread and 18-9 overall.
• The Heat are shooting 46.7% from the field, 0.3% lower than the 47% the Warriors' opponents have shot this season.
• This season, the Heat are 13-9-0 at home against the spread (.591 winning percentage). Away, they are 11-8-1 ATS (.550).
• Looking at the over/under, Miami's games have gone over 50% of the time this season, both at home (11 of 22) and on the road (10 of 20).
• The Heat, when moneyline favorites, have won a higher percentage of games at home (10-5) than on the road (1-2) this season.

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Norman Powell is putting up 23.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. He's also draining 48.6% of his shots from the floor and 41.4% from beyond the arc, with 3.1 triples per contest (10th in NBA).
• On a per-game basis, Bam Adebayo gets the Heat 17.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
• The Heat are getting 11.5 points, 9.9 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game from Kel'el Ware this year.
• The Heat are receiving 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game from Andrew Wiggins this season.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. gets the Heat 15.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while putting up 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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National Basketball Association

Golden State Warriors

Miami Heat