Timberwolves vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 6

The Miami Heat (20-16) play the Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13) on January 6, 2026 at Target Center. The Timberwolves face the Heat in a game that Minnesota is currently a favorite by 4.5 points. The over/under is 238.5 points for the game.

Here is everything you need to know to know about the Timberwolves-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Timberwolves vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Tuesday, January 6, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• TV: NBC/Peacock and FDSN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Timberwolves vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 4.5)
O/U Pick: Under (238.5)
Score Prediction: Timberwolves 120 - Heat 116

Timberwolves vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Timberwolves games have gone over 238.5 points scored, their current matchup's total, nine times (out of 36) this season.
• This season, 18 of the Heat's 36 total matchups have gone over 238.5 total points scored.
• The Timberwolves and the Heat combine to average 1.9 more points per game than the over/under of 238.5 set for this matchup.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 231.9 points per game, 6.6 fewer than the over/under in this game.
• Minnesota has been the favorite in 29 games this season and has come away with the win 21 times (72.4%) in those contests.
• Miami has won in 10, or 50%, of the 20 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
• Minnesota holds a 1-0 record in the last one head-to-head games against Miami.
• The Timberwolves also hold a 1-0 advantage against the spread when matched up with the Heat.

Timberwolves Recent Trends

• The Timberwolves have gone 6-4 in their past 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread during that span.
• Minnesota and its opponents have combined to score an average of 233.5 points over its last 10 games, 5.0 less than the 238.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Timberwolves have 15 wins against the spread in 36 games this season.
• So far this season, Minnesota has been installed as favorites by a 4.5-point margin or more 27 times and are 11-16 ATS in those games.
• Timberwolves games this year have hit the over on 17 of 36 set point totals.
• The 119.6 points per game the Timberwolves record are only 2.3 more points than the Heat give up (117.3).
• When Minnesota puts up more than 117.3 points, it is 11-7 against the spread and 17-1 overall.
• This season, the Timberwolves have a 48.1% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.2% higher than the 45.9% of shots the Heat's opponents have knocked down.
• Against the spread, the Timberwolves have performed worse when playing at home, covering seven times in 18 home games, and eight times in 18 road games.
• In home games, Minnesota exceeds the total 33.3% of the time (six of 18 games). It hits the over more often in road games, exceeding the total in 61.1% of games (11 of 18).
• The Timberwolves have fared better as a moneyline favorite at home, sporting a home record of 11-4, compared to going 10-4 in away games.

Timberwolves Recent Stats

Timberwolves Leaders

• Julius Randle puts up 22.3 points, 6.9 boards and 5.7 assists per contest, shooting 49.0% from the field and 33.3% from downtown with 1.6 made treys per contest.
• Anthony Edwards posts 29.4 points, 5.0 boards and 3.7 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks.
• Rudy Gobert averages 11.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.6 steals and 1.7 blocks (seventh in NBA).
• Naz Reid puts up 14.3 points, 6.2 boards and 2.4 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks.
• Donte DiVincenzo averages 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per contest. At the other end he averages 1.3 steals and 0.4 blocks.

Timberwolves Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat are 7-3 against the spread and 6-4 overall in their last 10 games.
• Miami's average total over the last 10 games is 1.8 points fewer than the 238.5 total listed for this matchup.
• The Heat have played 36 games, with 21 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, Miami has been installed as underdogs by a 4.5-point margin or more 11 times and are 6-4-1 ATS in those matchups.
• Heat games this season have gone over the total in 18 of 36 opportunities (50%).
• The Heat's 120.8 points per game are 6.2 more points than the 114.6 the Timberwolves give up to opponents.
• When it scores more than 114.6 points, Miami is 18-6 against the spread and 16-8 overall.
• The Heat have shot at a 47.3% rate from the field this season, 1.4 percentage points above the 45.9% shooting opponents of the Timberwolves have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Heat have had better results on the road (10-6-1) than at home (11-8-0) .
• Looking at the over/under, Miami's games have gone over less frequently at home (nine of 19, 47.4%) than away (nine of 17, 52.9%).
• This season the Heat are 9-5 at home as moneyline favorites (.643 winning percentage). On the road they are 1-1 (.500).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Norman Powell generates 24.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game for the Heat.
• Kel'el Ware is putting up 12.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest. He's draining 55.6% of his shots from the floor and 44.1% from 3-point range (10th in NBA), with 1.3 triples per contest.
• The Heat are getting 17.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game from Bam Adebayo this season.
• The Heat are receiving 16.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game from Andrew Wiggins this year.
• The Heat are getting 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game from Davion Mitchell this year.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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