Thunder vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 17

The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) will attempt to extend a five-game winning streak when visiting the Miami Heat (21-20) on January 17, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The Thunder face the Heat in a game that Oklahoma City is currently a sizable favorite by 10.5 points. The over/under for the matchup is set at 235.5.

Here's everything you need to know to know about the Thunder-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSOK, KWTV, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 10.5)
O/U Pick: Under (235.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Heat 113

Thunder vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Out of 42 games thus far this season, the Thunder have played 13 with more than 235.5 points scored, their current matchup's point total.
• The Heat games have gone over 235.5 total points scored in 22 of 41 total matchups this year.
• The two teams average a combined 5.0 more points per game, 240.5, than this matchup's over/under of 235.5 points.
• The Thunder and the Heat have seen their opponents average a combined 10.0 fewer points per game than the point total of 235.5 set for this outing.
• Oklahoma City has won 35, or 83.3%, of the 42 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Miami has been an underdog in 23 games this season and has come away with the win 10 times (43.5%) in those contests.
• Oklahoma City holds a 1-0 record in the last one head-to-head matchups with Miami.
• The Heat have a 1-0 record against the spread when playing the Thunder.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder have gone 8-2 in their past 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread in that span.
• Oklahoma City and its opponents have combined to score an average of 231.2 points in its last 10 games, 4.3 less than the 235.5 over/under in this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Thunder are 21-21-0 this year.
• So far this season, Oklahoma City has been installed as favorites by a 10.5-point margin or more 26 times and are 15-11 ATS in those matchups.
• Thunder games this year have eclipsed the over/under 51.2% of the time (21 out of 41 games with a set point total).
• The 121.1 points per game the Thunder put up are just 3.3 more points than the Heat allow (117.8).
• Oklahoma City is 18-9 against the spread and 26-1 overall when scoring more than 117.8 points.
• The Thunder are shooting 48.9% from the field this season, 3.0 percentage points higher than the 45.9% the Heat allow to opponents.
• Against the spread, the Thunder have performed better at home, covering 12 times in 23 home games, and nine times in 19 road games.
• In home games, Oklahoma City goes over the total 52.2% of the time (12 of 23 games). It has hit the over in 47.4% of away games (nine of 19 contests).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Thunder have won 20 of 23 games when playing at home, good for a .870 winning percentage. They have won 15 of 19 games away from home (.789) as a moneyline favorite.

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks.
• Chet Holmgren puts up 17.9 points, 1.6 assists and 8.4 boards per contest.
• Ajay Mitchell posts 14.2 points, 3.6 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game.
• Jalen Williams averages 17.2 points, 5.7 assists and 4.8 rebounds.
• Cason Wallace averages 7.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.1 assists per game. At the other end he averages 2.2 steals (first in NBA) and 0.2 blocks.

Thunder Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat are 6-4 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their last 10 games.
• Miami's average total over the last 10 games is 1.3 points greater than the 235.5 total given for this matchup.
• The Heat are 23-17-1 against the spread this season.
• Miami has been underdogs by 10.5 points or more once this year and covered the spread.
• Heat games this season have gone over the total in 20 of 41 opportunities (48.8%).
• The Heat average 11.7 more points per game (119.4) than the Thunder give up to opponents (107.7).
• Miami has put together a 21-11 ATS record and an 18-14 overall record in games it scores more than 107.7 points.
• The Heat are shooting 47.0% from the field, 3.6% higher than the 43.4% the Thunder's opponents have shot this season.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Heat have a better winning percentage at home (.571, 12-9-0 record) than on the road (.550, 11-8-1).
• In terms of the over/under, Miami's games have gone over less frequently at home (10 of 21, 47.6%) than on the road (10 of 20, 50%).
• This season the Heat are 10-5 at home when moneyline favorites (.667 winning percentage). Away they are 1-2 (.333).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Norman Powell gives the Heat 23.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. He also averages 1.3 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Bam Adebayo is putting up 17.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. He's making 45.5% of his shots from the field and 33.8% from beyond the arc, with 1.4 treys per contest.
• The Heat are receiving 11.7 points, 9.9 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game from Kel'el Ware this year.
• Andrew Wiggins gets the Heat 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest while posting 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.
• The Heat are getting 6.1 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game from Dru Smith this season.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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