Thunder vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 17

The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) will attempt to build on a five-game winning streak when visiting the Miami Heat (21-20) on January 17, 2026 at Kaseya Center. Saturday's matchup between the Thunder and the Heat sees the Thunder as a strong, 8.5-point favorite. A 235.5-point over/under has been set for the matchup.

Check out everything you need to know about the Thunder-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Thunder vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSOK, KWTV, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Thunder vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 8.5)
O/U Pick: Under (235.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Heat 113

Thunder vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Thunder games have finished over 235.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, 13 times (out of 42) this season.
• A total of 22 Heat games this season (out of 41) have gone over 235.5 total points scored.
• These two teams average 240.5 points per game combined, 5.0 more than the total of 235.5.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 225.5 points per game, 10.0 fewer than the over/under for this matchup.
• Oklahoma City has come away with 35 wins in the 42 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
• Miami has come away with 10 wins in the 23 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
• Oklahoma City has taken its one head-to-head meeting with Miami.
• The Heat have a 1-0 record against the spread when taking on the Thunder.

Thunder Recent Trends

• The Thunder have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span.
• Oklahoma City has averaged a total of 231.2 combined points in its last 10 games, 4.3 less than this game's over/under of 235.5.
• The Thunder are 21-21-0 against the spread this season.
• Oklahoma City has an against the spread record of 18-15 in its 33 games when favored by 8.5 points or more so far this season.
• Thunder games this year have hit the over 51.2% of the time (21 out of 41 games with a set point total).
• The Thunder put up 121.1 points per game, only 3.3 more points than the 117.8 the Heat give up.
• Oklahoma City is 18-9 against the spread and 26-1 overall when scoring more than 117.8 points.
• This season, the Thunder have a 48.9% shooting percentage from the field, which is three% higher than the 45.9% of shots the Heat's opponents have knocked down.
• The Thunder have done a better job covering the spread when playing at home (12-11-0) than they have in road tilts (9-10-0).
• Oklahoma City has eclipsed the over/under in 12 of 23 home games (52.2%), compared to nine of 19 road games (47.4%).
• The Thunder have won a higher percentage of their games as a moneyline favorite at home, going 20-3 (.870). When playing on the road as a moneyline favorite, they own a record of 15-4 (.789).

Thunder Recent Stats

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 31.6 points, 6.3 assists and 4.4 boards per game.
• Chet Holmgren averages 17.9 points, 8.4 boards and 1.6 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 0.6 steals and 1.9 blocks (fourth in NBA).
• Ajay Mitchell averages 14.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.4 blocks.
• Jalen Williams averages 17.2 points, 5.7 assists and 4.8 boards.
• Cason Wallace averages 7.3 points, 3 boards and 2.1 assists per contest, shooting 41.1% from the field and 35.5% from downtown with 1.4 made treys per contest.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while going 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.
• Miami has averaged a total of 236.8 combined points over its last 10 games, 1.3 greater than this matchup's over/under of 235.5.
• In the Heat's 41 games this season, they have 23 wins against the spread.
• This season, Miami has two ATS wins in three games as an underdog of 8.5 points or more.
• Heat games this year have gone over the total in 20 of 41 opportunities (48.8%).
• The Heat's 119.4 points per game are 11.7 more points than the 107.7 the Thunder allow.
• Miami is 21-11 against the spread and 18-14 overall when it scores more than 107.7 points.
• The Heat's 47% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.6 percentage points higher than the Thunder have allowed to their opponents (43.4%).
• The Heat's winning percentage against the spread at home is .571 (12-9-0). On the road, it is .550 (11-8-1).
• In terms of the over/under, Miami's games have gone over less frequently at home (10 of 21, 47.6%) than on the road (10 of 20, 50%).
• In 2025-26 when moneyline favorites, the Heat have a better winning percentage at home (.667, 10-5 record) than on the road (.333, 1-2).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Norman Powell gets the Heat 23.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. He also averages 1.3 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Bam Adebayo is putting up 17 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. He's sinking 45.5% of his shots from the field and 33.8% from 3-point range, with 1.4 triples per contest.
• Kel'el Ware gives the Heat 11.7 points, 9.9 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest while delivering 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.
• The Heat are getting 15.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game from Jaime Jaquez Jr. this year.
• The Heat are receiving 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game from Andrew Wiggins this season.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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