Rockets vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 28

The Houston Rockets (37-21) will attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when visiting the Miami Heat (31-29) on February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The Rockets are currently small 3.5-point favorites against the Heat. The game's point total is 225.5.

Here is everything you need to know about the Rockets-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Rockets vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: Amazon Prime Video and SCHN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Rockets vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 3.5)
O/U Pick: Over (225.5)
Score Prediction: Rockets 116 - Heat 115

Rockets vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Rockets games have gone over 225.5 points scored, their current matchup's total, 25 times (out of 58) this season.
• The Heat games have gone over 225.5 total points scored in 44 of 60 total matchups this season.
• These two teams average a combined 234.6 points per game, 9.1 more points than the over/under of 225.5 set for this matchup.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 0.8 more points per game, 226.3, than this game's total of 225.5 points.
• Houston has won 34, or 65.4%, of the 52 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
• Miami has come away with 13 wins in the 30 contests it has been listed as the underdog this season.
• After the last two head-to-head matchups, Houston and Miami have a tied 1-1 record.
• The Heat have an advantage against the spread (2-0) when squaring off against the Rockets.
• The Rockets have been favored in three of their previous four contests, and covered the spread in all four.

Rockets Recent Trends

• The Rockets have gone 6-4 over their last 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread during that span.
• Houston and its opponents have combined to score an average of 217.1 points in its last 10 games, 8.4 less than the 225.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Rockets have played 58 games, with 27 wins against the spread.
• Houston has an against the spread record of 17-26 in its 43 games as a favorite of 3.5 points or more so far this season.
• The Rockets have hit the over in 41.7% of their opportunities this year (25 times in 60 games with a set point total).
• The Rockets record just 2.5 fewer points per game (114.7) than the Heat give up (117.2).
• When Houston puts up more than 117.2 points, it is 14-9 against the spread and 17-6 overall.
• This season, the Rockets have a 47.5% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.7% higher than the 45.8% of shots the Heat's opponents have made.
• In home games, the Rockets own a worse record against the spread (10-17-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (17-14-0).
• Houston has gone over the total in nine of 27 home games (33.3%). It has fared better in road games, going over the total in 16 of 31 matchups (51.6%).
• The Rockets have won a higher percentage of their games as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 20-6 (.769). In away games as a moneyline favorite, they have a record of 14-12 (.538).

Rockets Recent Stats

Rockets Leaders

• Kevin Durant puts up 26.1 points, 4.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds per contest.
• Alperen Sengun posts 20.4 points, 6.4 assists and 9.2 rebounds per contest.
• Amen Thompson puts up 17.3 points, 7.6 boards and 5.3 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.5 steals (eighth in NBA) and 0.6 blocks.
• Reed Sheppard averages 13.1 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks.
• Tari Eason puts up 11.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, shooting 44.5% from the floor and 43.2% from downtown (10th in league) with 2.0 made 3-pointers per contest.

Rockets Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have gone 5-5 in their past 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread during that span.
• Miami has averaged a total of 235.3 combined points over its last 10 games, 9.8 greater than this game's over/under of 225.5.
• In the Heat's 60 games this season, they have 34 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, Miami has been installed as underdogs by a 3.5-point margin or more 20 times and are 12-7-1 ATS in those contests.
• Heat games this season have eclipsed the over/under 32 times in 60 opportunities (53.3%).
• The Heat score an average of 119.9 points per game, 10.8 more points than the 109.1 the Rockets allow.
• Miami is 32-18 against the spread and 28-20 overall when it scores more than 109.1 points.
• The Heat have shot at a 46.3% clip from the field this season, 0.8 percentage points higher than the 45.5% shooting opponents of the Rockets have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Heat have had better results on the road (19-12-1) than at home (15-13-0) .
• In 2025-26, a higher percentage of Miami's games have finished above the over/under at home (53.6%, 15 of 28) compared to on the road (53.1%, 17 of 32).
• When moneyline favorites, the Heat have won a lower percentage of games at home (12-9) than on the road (6-3).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo delivers 18.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game for the Heat.
• Andrew Wiggins is putting up 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He's making 47.5% of his shots from the field and 40.8% from beyond the arc, with 2.1 treys per game.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. is averaging 15.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. He is sinking 50.3% of his shots from the field.
• Kel'el Ware is putting up 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest. He is sinking 52.6% of his shots from the floor and 40.4% from 3-point range, with 1.2 treys per contest.
• The Heat are receiving 8.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game from Davion Mitchell this season.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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