Rockets vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 28

The Houston Rockets (37-21) will attempt to continue a three-game winning streak when visiting the Miami Heat (31-29) on February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center. Saturday's matchup between the Rockets and the Heat features a close line of Houston -2. A 226.5-point over/under has been set for the game.

Take a look at everything you need to know about the Rockets-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Rockets vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: Amazon Prime Video and SCHN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Rockets vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 2)
O/U Pick: Over (226.5)
Score Prediction: Rockets 116 - Heat 115

Rockets vs. Heat Betting Insights

• Rockets games have finished over 226.5 points scored, their current matchup's total, 24 times (out of 58) this season.
• This year, 42 of the Heat's 60 games have had a combined total higher than 226.5 points scored.
• The Rockets and Heat average 8.1 more points between them than the total of 226.5 for this game.
• Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 226.3 points per game, 0.2 fewer than the point total in this matchup.
• Houston has been victorious in 34, or 65.4%, of the 52 contests it has been chosen as favorites in this season.
• Miami has been an underdog in 30 games this season and has come away with the win 13 times (43.3%) in those contests.
• After the last two head-to-head meetings, Houston and Miami have a tied 1-1 record.
• The Heat have a 2-0 advantage against the spread when playing the Rockets.
• The Rockets beat the point spread in their past four games, and were favored in three of those games.

Rockets Recent Trends

• The Rockets have gone 6-4 in their past 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread in that span.
• Houston and its opponents have combined to score an average of 217.1 points in its last 10 games, 9.4 less than the 226.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Rockets are 27-31-0 against the spread this season.
• This season, Houston has an against the spread record of 20-29 in its 49 games as a favorite of 2 points or more.
• Rockets games this year have hit the over on 25 of 60 set point totals.
• The Rockets score 114.7 points per game, only 2.5 fewer points than the 117.2 the Heat give up.
• Houston has a 14-9 record against the spread and a 17-6 record overall when scoring more than 117.2 points.
• The Rockets make 47.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (45.8%).
• When playing at home, the Rockets have a worse record against the spread (10-17-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (17-14-0).
• When playing at home, Houston eclipses the over/under 33.3% of the time (nine of 27 games). It hits the over more often in away games, exceeding the total in 51.6% of games (16 of 31).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Rockets have won a higher percentage of their home games (.769) compared to road games (.538).

Rockets Recent Stats

Rockets Leaders

• Kevin Durant puts up 26.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, shooting 50.8% from the floor and 40.2% from downtown with 2.4 made 3-pointers per game.
• Alperen Sengun averages 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocks.
• Amen Thompson posts 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.5 steals (eighth in league) and 0.6 blocks.
• Reed Sheppard averages 13.1 points, 3.0 assists and 2.6 boards.
• Tari Eason averages 11.5 points, 1.6 assists and 6.2 boards.

Rockets Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 5-5 overall over their last 10 contests.
• Miami has averaged a total of 235.3 combined points in its last 10 games, 8.8 greater than this matchup's total of 226.5.
• The Heat are 34-25-1 against the spread this season.
• So far this season, Miami has been installed as underdogs by a 2-point margin or more 27 times and are 16-10-1 ATS in those games.
• The Heat have eclipsed the over/under 53.3% of the time this season (32 of 60 games with a set point total).
• The Heat's 119.9 points per game are 10.8 more points than the 109.1 the Rockets allow to opponents.
• Miami is 32-18 against the spread and 28-20 overall when it scores more than 109.1 points.
• The Heat have shot at a 46.3% clip from the field this season, 0.8 percentage points greater than the 45.5% shooting opponents of the Rockets have averaged.
• Against the spread, the Heat have had better results on the road (19-12-1) than at home (15-13-0) .
• Miami's games have finished above the over/under 53.6% of the time at home (15 of 28), and 53.1% of the time away (17 of 32).
• The Heat's winning percentage at home as moneyline favorites is .571 (12-9), and away it is .667 (6-3).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists per contest. He's also draining 44.7% of his shots from the field and 33.9% from beyond the arc, with 1.7 triples per contest.
• On a per-game basis, Andrew Wiggins gets the Heat 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He also averages 1.1 steals and 1.0 block.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. gets the Heat 15.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while posting 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.
• Kel'el Ware gets the Heat 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game while posting 0.7 steals and 1.0 block.
• Davion Mitchell gives the Heat 8.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game while posting 1.1 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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