Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 20

Southeast Division rivals battle when the Miami Heat (29-27) travel to face the Atlanta Hawks (27-30) at State Farm Arena on February 20, 2026. It's the third matchup between the clubs this year. Miami is a small 3.5-point favorite against Atlanta when the Heat take the court against the Hawks on Friday. The over/under is 243.5 points for the game.

Check out everything you need to know to know about the Heat-Hawks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Hawks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Friday, February 20, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSSE, WANF, and Peachtree Sports Network
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Hawks Prediction

ATS Pick: Hawks (+ 3.5)
O/U Pick: Under (243.5)
Score Prediction: -Hawks 119 - Heat 118

Heat vs. Hawks Betting Insights

• The Heat and their opponent have combined to score over 243.5 points, the current matchup's over/under, in 21 of 56 games this year.
• This season, 23 of the Hawks' 57 total matchups have gone over 243.5 total points scored.
• The Heat and the Hawks combine to average 6.6 fewer points per game than the over/under of 243.5 set for this game.
• The Heat and the Hawks have seen their opponents average a combined 7.9 fewer points per game than the over/under of 243.5 set for this outing.
• Miami has been the favorite in 27 games this season and has come away with the win 16 times (59.3%) in those contests.
• Atlanta has been chosen as underdogs in 32 games this year and has walked away with the win 15 times (46.9%) in those games.
• After the last two head-to-head matchups, Miami and Atlanta have a tied 1-1 record.
• The teams are each 1-1 against the spread in those contests.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while going 5-5 overall over their last 10 games.
• Miami's average total over the last 10 games is 10.2 points fewer than the 243.5 over/under given for this matchup.
• The Heat have played 56 games, with 32 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, Miami has been installed as favorites by a 3.5-point margin or more 23 times and are 11-12 ATS in those matchups.
• Heat games this year have eclipsed the over/under 50.9% of the time (29 out of 57 games with a set point total).
• The 119.6 points per game the Heat put up are only 1.2 more points than the Hawks allow (118.4).
• Miami is 23-4 against the spread and 20-6 overall when scoring more than 118.4 points.
• The Heat are shooting 46.1% from the field this season, 1.4 percentage points lower than the 47.5% the Hawks allow to opponents.
• In home games, the Heat sport a worse record against the spread (14-13-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (18-10-1).
• Miami has gone over the over/under more consistently at home, hitting the over in 14 of 27 home matchups (51.9%). In away games, it has hit the over in 15 of 29 games (51.7%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Heat have won a lower percentage of their games when playing at home (.550) compared to road games (.714).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo puts up 18.4 points, 9.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest, shooting 44.3% from the field and 33.8% from downtown with 1.6 made treys per contest.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. puts up 15.2 points, 5.4 boards and 4.7 assists per contest, shooting 50.5% from the floor.
• Norman Powell posts 23.0 points, 3.6 boards and 2.6 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Andrew Wiggins averages 15.9 points, 2.8 assists and 5.0 rebounds.
• Kel'el Ware averages 11.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 0.6 assists per contest. At the other end he averages 0.8 steals and 1.0 block.

Heat Player Props

Hawks Recent Trends

• The Hawks are 4-6 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Atlanta's average total over the last 10 games is 8.2 points fewer than the 243.5 over/under listed for this matchup.
• The Hawks have 27 wins against the spread in 57 games this season.
• Atlanta is 13-8 ATS when underdogs by 3.5 points or more this year.
• Hawks games this year have hit the over 50.9% of the time (29 out of 57 games with a set point total).
• The Hawks score only 0.1 more points per game (117.3) than the Heat allow their opponents to score (117.2).
• Atlanta is 17-10 against the spread and 16-11 overall when it scores more than 117.2 points.
• The Hawks' 47.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 1.3 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (45.8%).
• This season, the Hawks are 9-16-0 at home against the spread (.360 winning percentage). On the road, they are 18-14-0 ATS (.562).
• In terms of the over/under, Atlanta's games have gone over 11 of 25 times at home (44%), and 18 of 32 away (56.2%).
• The Hawks, when moneyline favorites, have won a lower percentage of games at home (5-7) than on the road (7-6) this season.

Hawks Recent Stats

Hawks Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Jalen Johnson gives the Hawks 23.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.1 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest. He's draining 43.2% of his shots from the floor and 37.1% from 3-point range, with 3.0 treys per contest.
• Dyson Daniels gets the Hawks 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game while averaging 1.8 steals (fifth in NBA) and 0.4 blocked shots.
• The Hawks are receiving 16.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game from Onyeka Okongwu this year.
• CJ McCollum gets the Hawks 18.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest while putting up 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.

Hawks Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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