Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers will square off against Jose Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in the first of a three-game series, Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Bookmakers list the Tigers as -126 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Guardians +106 moneyline odds. Detroit (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The over/under for the game has been set at 8 runs.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Tigers-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Tigers vs. Nationals Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Detroit Tigers and the Washington Nationals.

Tigers vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
• How to watch on TV: CLEG and FDSDET

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction

• Score Prediction: Tigers 5, Guardians 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Tigers 52%, Guardians 48%

Tigers vs. Guardians Betting Insights

• This season, the Tigers have won 40 out of the 58 games, or 69%, in which they've been favored.
• Detroit has a record of 33-14, a 70.2% win rate, when favored by -126 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 55.8% chance of a victory for the Tigers.
• The Guardians have won in 21, or 40.4%, of the 52 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Cleveland has been victorious 13 times in 36 chances when named as an underdog of at least +106 or longer on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 48.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Tigers Recent Betting Performance

• The Tigers went 6-3 over the nine games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings, the Tigers and their opponents combined to hit the over six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Tigers have put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Tigers Recent Stats

Tigers Player Insights

• Not only does Riley Greene lead the Tigers in hitting with his .292 average, he also paces the squad with 21 home runs and 69 RBI.
• Greene's home runs rank him ninth in MLB, and he ranks fifth in RBI.
• Gleyber Torres has 13 doubles, nine home runs and 45 walks while batting .282.
• Of all major league hitters, Torres is 120th in home runs and 58th in RBI.
• Torres carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .250 with a home run, four walks and three RBIs.
• Torkelson has 19 doubles, 19 home runs and 40 walks while hitting .234.
• Torkelson has at least one base hit in seven games in a row. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .282 with three doubles, three home runs, three walks and seven RBIs.
• Zach McKinstry is batting .290 with 12 doubles, eight triples, five home runs and 29 walks.

Tigers Team Props

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

• The Guardians have played as underdogs six times over their past 10 games and lost each of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents have failed to hit the over six times.
• The Guardians have won three of their last 10 games against the spread.

Guardians Recent Stats

Guardians Player Insights

• Ramirez paces the Guardians with 13 home runs and 38 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .297.
• In all of the big leagues, Ramirez is 47th in home runs and 91st in RBI.
• Steven Kwan has 18 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 30 walks while hitting .295.
• Kwan ranks 184th overall in homers and 184th in RBI this season.
• Carlos Santana has a team-high 38 runs batted in.
• Kyle Manzardo paces the Guardians with 13 long balls.

Guardians Team Props

Tigers vs. Nationals Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Detroit Tigers and the Washington Nationals.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers