Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 4

Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox will look to get to Bailey Falter when he starts for the Kansas City Royals on Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are the favorite in this one, at -163, while the underdog Royals have +137 odds to upset. Boston is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 9.5 runs for the contest (with -101 odds on the over and -120 odds on the under).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Royals game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Royals vs. Blue Jays Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays.

Red Sox vs. Royals Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, August 4, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and FDSKC

Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Royals 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 56%, Royals 44%

Red Sox vs. Royals Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have won 40, or 59.7%, of the 67 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Boston is 11-6 this season when entering a game favored by -163 or more on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 62%.
• The Royals have been underdogs in 68 games this season and have come away with the win 32 times (47.1%) in those contests.
• Kansas City has a mark of 7-7 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +137 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Royals have a 42.2% chance of walking away with the win.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox were the moneyline favorite in four of their last 10 games, and went 3-1 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Red Sox are 8-2-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Duran is great at both finding his way aboard and doing damage when he's at the plate. Duran leads the Red Sox this season with a .329 OBP, .457 slugging percentage, and 117 base hits.
• Duran is 124th in home runs and 46th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has a club-high .267 batting average.
• Rafaela is 89th in home runs and 77th in RBI among all batters in the majors.
• Rafaela carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .368 with two doubles, a triple and two RBIs.
• Trevor Story has racked up a team-best 69 runs batted in.
• Story will look to build on his five-game hitting in this game. During his last five outings he is batting .500 with four doubles, three home runs, two walks and eight RBIs.
• Wilyer Abreu's 20 home runs are a team-high mark.

Red Sox Team Props

Royals Recent Betting Performance

• The Royals have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and have gone 3-2 in those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Royals and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
• The Royals are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Royals Recent Stats

Royals Player Insights

• Bobby Witt Jr. has 37 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 36 walks while hitting .285.
• Witt's home run total puts him 62nd in the majors, and he is 31st in RBI.
• Maikel Garcia's .297 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Garcia ranks 144th among all hitters in the majors in home runs, and 86th in RBI.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has racked up a team-high 66 runs batted in.
• Salvador Perez leads the Royals with 20 home runs and runs batted in, driving in 66.

Royals Team Props

Royals vs. Blue Jays Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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