Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - April 26

Published Apr. 26, 2025 3:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Steven Kwan and Trevor Story hit the field when the Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox meet on Saturday at Progressive Field. The Guardians are -104 moneyline underdogs for this matchup against the favorite Red Sox (-115). Boston (-1.5) is favored on the run line. The over/under is 7.5 runs for this contest.

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Early NFL Draft and NCAA Tournament best bets, predictions & odds | Bear Bets

Join gambling expert Chris “The Bear” Fallica and former NFL Offensive Lineman Geoff Schwartz on the latest episode of “Bear Bets” as the guys reveal their best predictions for the 2025 NFL Draft and NCAA Tournament.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, April 26, 2025 at 6:10 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
How to watch on TV: CLEG and NESN

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Red Sox	-115	-104	7.5	-108	-112	-1.5	+149	-180

Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Red Sox 4
Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Red Sox 57%, Guardians 43%

Red Sox vs. Guardians Betting Insights

This season, the Red Sox have been favored 20 times and won 11, or 55%, of those games.
Boston has a record of 11-9 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -115 on the moneyline.
The Red Sox have a 53.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
The Guardians have been underdogs in 14 games this season and have come away with the win six times (42.9%) in those contests.
This season, Cleveland has come away with a win five times in 13 chances when named as an underdog of at least -104 or longer on the moneyline.
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 51% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

The Red Sox played as the moneyline favorite for seven of their last 10 games, and they went 4-3 in those matchups.
Over their last 10 outings, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to hit the over on the run total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
The Red Sox have put together a 5-5-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.7
HR	16
ERA	4.60
K/9	9.9

Red Sox Player Insights

Alexander David Bregman's five homers and 21 RBI both lead the Red Sox, in addition to his team-high .320 average.
Bregman's home runs rank him 34th in the majors, and he is ninth in RBI.
Bregman has collected a hit in five games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .444 with three doubles, a home run, three walks and five RBI.
Wilyer Abreu has six doubles, four home runs and 16 walks while hitting .271.
Including all MLB batters, Abreu ranks 51st in homers and 33rd in RBI.
Jarren Duran is hitting .250 with seven doubles, two triples, a home run and eight walks.
Duran has at least one base hit in 11 straight games. In his last 10 games he is batting .286 with four doubles, a triple, a home run, three walks and three RBI.
Story has hit five home runs to lead his team.

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

In eight games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Guardians have a record of 4-4.
The Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
The Guardians have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	3.9
HR	10
ERA	4.45
K/9	9.8

Guardians Player Insights

Kwan paces the Guardians with a .337 batting average.
Among all hitters in MLB, Kwan ranks 51st in homers and 47th in RBI.
Kwan has collected a hit in seven straight games. During his last 10 games he is batting .350 with two doubles, two home runs, four walks and six RBI.
Jose Ramirez is hitting .265 with four doubles, five home runs and nine walks.
Ramirez is 34th in home runs and 63rd in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
Kyle Manzardo has been solid source of run production for the Guardians with seven long balls and 18 runs batted in.
Gabriel Arias is hitting .270 with four doubles, four home runs and five walks.