Rays vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 16

The Miami Marlins and Kyle Stowers take the field at loanDepot park against Jonathan Aranda and the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. The Rays are favored in this one, at -128, while the underdog Marlins have +109 odds to play spoiler. Tampa Bay is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The contest's total has been set at 8.5 runs.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Rays-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Rays vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, May 16, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
• How to watch on TV: FDSFL and FDSSUN

Rays vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Rays 6, Marlins 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Rays 50%, Marlins 50%

Rays vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Rays have won 10, or 45.5%, of the 22 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Tampa Bay has a record of 7-9, a 43.8% win rate, when favored by -128 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Rays, based on the moneyline, is 56.1%.
• The Marlins have come away with 12 wins in the 36 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Miami has a mark of 9-21 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +109 or worse on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 47.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Rays Recent Betting Performance

• The Rays were named the moneyline favorite by oddsmakers just twice over the last 10 games, and split those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Rays combined with their opponents to hit the over on the run total five times.
• The Rays have put together a 5-5-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Rays Recent Stats

Rays Player Insights

• Yandy Diaz has eight doubles, six home runs and 12 walks while hitting .238.
• Among all MLB hitters, Diaz is 109th in batting average, 130th in on-base percentage, and 95th in slugging.
• Aranda's .325 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Aranda is 67th in home runs and 83rd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Junior Caminero has hit a team-best eight homers.
• Caminero has at least one base hit in three games in a row. During his last five outings he is batting .211 with a home run, a walk and four RBIs.
• Brandon Lowe's 24 runs batted in pace his team.
• Lowe brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .350 with a double, two home runs, two walks and six RBIs.

Rays Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In seven games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by bookmakers, the Marlins had a record of 2-5.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents are 3-6-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Marlins have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Stowers leads the squad with a batting average of .300, and paces the Marlins in home runs, with 10 and runs batted in with 29.
• Stowers is 15th in homers and 18th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Stowers takes a hitting streak of three games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .333 with a triple, four home runs, two walks and four RBIs.
• Xavier Edwards is batting .263 with three doubles, a triple and 19 walks.
• Edwards ranks 338th overall in homers and 210th in RBI this season.
• Eric Wagaman is hitting .225 with eight doubles, a triple, three home runs and 11 walks.
• Liam Hicks is batting .257 with three doubles, three home runs and seven walks.

Marlins Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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