Phillies vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Trea Turner and the Philadelphia Phillies will square off against Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park on Friday at 1:05 p.m. ET, in the first game of a three-game series. The Reds are +132 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the favorite Phillies (-159). Philadelphia is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +134 odds). The matchup's over/under has been set at 8 runs.

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Phillies Game 2 Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies Game 2.

Phillies vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 1:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and FDSOH

Phillies vs. Reds Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Reds 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 54%, Reds 46%

Phillies vs. Reds Betting Insights

• The Phillies have won 44, or 65.7%, of the 67 games they've played as favorites this season.
• This season Philadelphia has won 29 of its 37 games, or 78.4%, when favored by at least -159 on the moneyline.
• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 61.4% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Reds have been victorious in 26, or 53.1%, of the 49 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Cincinnati has a mark of 8-8 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +132 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 43.1% chance of walking away with the win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies went 3-1 over the four games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Phillies combined with their opponents to hit the over on the total two times.
• The Phillies have a 7-3-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber has accumulated a team-high 26 home runs and 58 runs batted in.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Schwarber ranks fifth in homers and 12th in RBI.
• Turner has a club-high .297 batting average.
• Turner is 78th in home runs and 82nd in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Turner carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last five games he is batting .211 with two walks and two RBIs.
• Nick Castellanos is hitting .279 with 22 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 20 walks.
• Alec Bohm is batting .283 with 12 doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 18 walks.
• Bohm brings a five-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .333 with a double, a triple, two walks and two RBIs.

Phillies Team Props

Reds Recent Betting Performance

• The Reds have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Reds and their opponents are 4-5-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Reds have six wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Reds Recent Stats

Reds Player Insights

• De La Cruz paces the Reds with 18 home runs and runs batted in, driving in 58.
• De La Cruz's home run total places him 18th in the majors, and he is 12th in RBI.
• TJ Friedl is batting .281 to lead the lineup.
• Friedl is 137th in home runs and 135th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Spencer Steer is hitting .252 with 13 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 21 walks.
• Gavin Lux is hitting .269 with 16 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 36 walks.

Reds Team Props

Padres vs. Phillies Game 2 Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies Game 2.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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