Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - June 30

Nick Castellanos and the Philadelphia Phillies hit the field on Monday at Citizens Bank Park against Matt Waldron, who is starting for the San Diego Padres. First pitch will be at 6:35 p.m. ET for the first game of a three-game series. The favored Phillies have -246 moneyline odds against the underdog Padres, who are listed at +199. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The game's over/under has been set at 9 runs.

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, June 30, 2025 at 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, NBCS-PH, and SDPA

Phillies vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Padres 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 55%, Padres 45%

Phillies vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Phillies have won 42, or 64.6%, of the 65 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Philadelphia is 8-1 this season when entering a game favored by -246 or more on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 71.1% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
• The Padres have been victorious in 19, or 47.5%, of the 40 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• San Diego has played as an underdog of +199 or more just one time this year and came away with a win in that game.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 33.4% chance of walking away with the win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have a 3-1 record from the four games they were favored on the moneyline over their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total three times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Phillies have put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• The Phillies' best power option comes in the form of Kyle Schwarber and his 25-dinger 57-RBI season, both team highs.
• Of all hitters in MLB, Schwarber ranks fourth in homers and 11th in RBI.
• Schwarber brings a hitting streak of three games into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .353 with a double, a home run, four walks and two RBIs.
• Trea Turner has a club-leading .296 batting average.
• Turner is 69th in home runs and 81st in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Castellanos is batting .282 with 22 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 18 walks.
• Bryce Harper is hitting .258 with 13 doubles, nine home runs and 35 walks.

Phillies Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have played as underdogs in three of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times.
• The Padres are 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Manny Machado paces the Padres with a .293 batting average.
• Machado is 42nd in home runs and 34th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has shown his power as he leads his team with 15 home runs.
• Among all MLB hitters, Tatis is 30th in home runs and 87th in RBI.
• Luis Arraez is hitting .283 with 17 doubles, four triples, four home runs and 15 walks.
• Gavin Sheets has driven in the most runs for the Padres with 49 runs batted in.

Padres Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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