Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 17

Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres will play Jorge Polanco and the Seattle Mariners on Saturday at PETCO Park, at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Mariners have been listed as +119 moneyline underdogs in this matchup against the Padres (-141). San Diego is a 1.5-run favorite (at +157 odds). The over/under for the game is listed at 7.5 runs.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Mariners game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Mariners Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: SDPA and ROOT Sports NW

Padres vs. Mariners Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 4, Mariners 3
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 55%, Mariners 45%

Padres vs. Mariners Betting Insights

• The Padres have entered the game as favorites 24 times this season and won 17, or 70.8%, of those games.
• This season San Diego has won 12 of its 17 games, or 70.6%, when favored by at least -141 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 58.5% chance of a victory for the Padres.
• The Mariners have come away with nine wins in the 17 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This season, Seattle has been victorious five times in eight chances when named as an underdog of at least +119 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Mariners have an implied victory probability of 45.7% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have a 4-3 record over the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings, the Padres and their opponents combined to hit the over six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Padres have put together a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone yard 11 times in the 2025 campaign while knocking in 26 runs, both totals that lead the Padres.
• Among all MLB batters, Tatis is 15th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and 11th in slugging.
• Machado is hitting .331 to pace his team.
• Machado ranks 168th in homers and 91st in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Luis Arraez is hitting .298 with five doubles, two triples, three home runs and eight walks.
• Arraez is on a four-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .300 with a double.
• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .238 with nine doubles, three home runs and 21 walks.

Padres Team Props

Mariners Recent Betting Performance

• The Mariners have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mariners and their opponents have combined to hit the over six times.
• The Mariners are 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Mariners Recent Stats

Mariners Player Insights

• Cal Raleigh has put up a team-high 14 home runs and has driven in 30 runs.
• Raleigh ranks fourth in homers and 18th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Raleigh has collected a hit in four straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .313 with a double, two home runs, three walks and five RBIs.
• Polanco is batting .324 with six doubles, 10 home runs and eight walks.
• Polanco is 16th among all batters in MLB in home runs, and 22nd in RBI.
• Julio Rodriguez is hitting .236 with five doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 17 walks.
• J.P. Crawford leads the Mariners with a .278 batting average.

Mariners Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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