Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 16

Cal Raleigh and the Seattle Mariners take the field on Friday at PETCO Park against Stephen Kolek, who is starting for the San Diego Padres. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET for the first game of a three-game series. The Padres have been listed as -169 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Mariners (+142). San Diego is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +123 odds). An 8.5-run total has been set for this game.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Mariners game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. launched a walk-off home run in the San Diego Padres' 6-4 lead over the Los Angeles Angels.

Padres vs. Mariners Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, May 16, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: Apple TV+

Padres vs. Mariners Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 3, Mariners 2
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 61%, Mariners 39%

Padres vs. Mariners Betting Insights

• The Padres have won 17, or 73.9%, of the 23 games they've played as favorites this season.
• San Diego is 9-2 this season when entering a game favored by -169 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 62.8% chance of a victory for the Padres.
• The Mariners have been victorious in eight, or 50%, of the 16 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Seattle has been listed as an underdog of +142 or more on two occasions this season and split those games.
• The Mariners have an implied victory probability of 41.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres were the moneyline favorite for six of their last 10 games, and finished 4-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the total six times.
• The Padres are 7-3-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 11 home runs and 26 runs batted in.
• Tatis ranks ninth in homers and 31st in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Manny Machado is hitting .340 to lead his team.
• Machado is 166th in home runs and 84th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Machado heads into this matchup looking for his 15th game in a row with a hit. During his last 10 games he is hitting .543 with four doubles, seven walks and six RBIs.
• Luis Arraez has four doubles, two triples, three home runs and eight walks while hitting .286.
• Arraez will look to build on his three-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .261 with a triple and three RBIs.
• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .243 with nine doubles, three home runs and 20 walks.
• Bogaerts is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with two home runs, three walks and five RBIs.

Padres Team Props

Mariners Recent Betting Performance

• The Mariners have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and have gone 2-3 in those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mariners and their opponents are 7-3-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• Over their last 10 games, the Mariners are 3-7-0 against the spread.

Mariners Recent Stats

Mariners Player Insights

• Raleigh has swatted a team-leading 13 home runs.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Raleigh ranks fifth in homers and 22nd in RBI.
• Raleigh brings a hitting streak of three games into this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .250 with a double, a home run, three walks and three RBIs.
• Jorge Polanco has capitalized on opportunities as he paces his team with 29 RBI.
• Among all major league hitters, Polanco is 15th in homers and 18th in RBI.
• Julio Rodriguez is batting .229 with five doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 17 walks.
• Randy Arozarena is hitting .236 with 10 doubles, five home runs and 27 walks.

Mariners Team Props

Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. hits walk-off home run vs. Angels

Fernando Tatis Jr. launched a walk-off home run in the San Diego Padres' 6-4 lead over the Los Angeles Angels.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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