Mets vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees take the field on Friday at Citi Field against Justin Hagenman, who is the named starter for the New York Mets. First pitch will be at 3:10 p.m. ET for the first game of a three-game series. The Mets are the favorite in this one, at -127, while the underdog Yankees have +107 odds to play spoiler. The Mets are a 1.5-run favorite (at +155 odds). A 9.5-run over/under has been listed for the contest.

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Yankees game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Yankees Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SNY, and YES

Mets vs. Yankees Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Yankees 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 52%, Yankees 48%

Mets vs. Yankees Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 62 times and won 40, or 64.5%, of those games.
• The Mets have a record of 34-18, a 65.4% win rate, when they're favored by -127 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 55.9% chance to win.
• The Yankees have been underdogs in eight games this season and have come away with the win two times (25%) in those contests.
• This year, the Yankees have won one of four games when listed as at least +107 or better on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Yankees have a 48.3% chance of pulling out a win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets played as the moneyline favorite in seven of their last 10 games, and finished 3-4 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups, the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the run total seven times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Mets have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto leads the Mets with 20 homers on the year. He's also hitting .260 with 48 RBI.
• Among all MLB batters, Soto ranks 75th in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and 22nd in slugging.
• Soto has collected a hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .278 with three walks and two RBIs.
• Pete Alonso has a club-leading 67 RBI and .287 batting average.
• Among all MLB hitters, Alonso ranks 18th in homers and sixth in RBI.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .261 with 16 doubles, 17 home runs and 29 walks.
• Lindor will look to build on his two-game hitting in this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .250 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has 15 doubles, 17 home runs and 25 walks while batting .254.
• Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is batting .286 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.

Mets Team Props

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

• The Yankees are not favored for the first time in a while, as they have not been underdogs in their last 10 games.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Yankees and their opponents are 5-5-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Yankees have won three of their last 10 games against the spread.

Yankees Recent Stats

Yankees Player Insights

• Judge leads the Yankees in home runs (31), runs batted in (70) and has recorded a team-best batting average of .364.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Judge's home run total ranks second and his RBI tally ranks third.
• Judge has collected a hit in three straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .571 with two doubles, three home runs, nine walks and seven RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger is hitting .269 with 15 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 28 walks.
• Bellinger ranks 60th overall in home runs and 58th in RBI this season.
• Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .286 with 18 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 27 walks.
• Trent Grisham is hitting .249 with seven doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 39 walks.

Yankees Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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