Mets vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 11

The New York Mets versus Kansas City Royals game on Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET will feature a pair of hot hitters in Brandon Nimmo and Salvador Perez. Bookmakers list the Mets as -125 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Royals +106 moneyline odds to win. New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +123 odds). A 9.5-run over/under has been set for the contest.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Royals game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Royals Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 11, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
• How to watch on TV: FDSKC and SNY

Mets vs. Royals Prediction

• Score Prediction: Royals 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 52%, Royals 48%

Mets vs. Royals Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 66 times and won 42, or 63.6%, of those games.
• New York is 35-21 this season when entering a game favored by -125 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 55.6% chance of a victory for the Mets.
• The Royals have been underdogs in 59 games this season and have come away with the win 28 times (47.5%) in those contests.
• This season, Kansas City has come away with a win 17 times in 39 chances when named as an underdog of at least +106 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Royals have an implied victory probability of 48.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have a 3-4 record from the seven games they were favored on the moneyline over their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Mets and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total seven times.
• The Mets' ATS record is 2-8-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto leads the Mets with 21 home runs.
• Including all MLB hitters, Soto is 67th in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging.
• Pete Alonso has put his power on display as he leads his team with 21 home runs and 76 RBI, with a team-high .284 batting average.
• Alonso ranks 11th in home runs and third in RBI on the season.
• Francisco Lindor is batting .261 with 18 doubles, 18 home runs and 32 walks.
• Lindor will look to build on his five-game hitting in this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .316 with two doubles, a home run, three walks and five RBIs.
• Nimmo is hitting .260 with 17 doubles, 18 home runs and 26 walks.
• Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in three straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .368 with a double, a home run, a walk and five RBIs.

Mets Team Props

Royals Recent Betting Performance

• The Royals have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Royals and their opponents are 4-6-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Royals have won six of their last 10 games against the spread.

Royals Recent Stats

Royals Player Insights

• Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .295 with 31 doubles, three triples, 13 home runs and 29 walks.
• Witt ranks 64th in homers and 41st in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Witt brings a hitting streak of 13 games into this game. In his last 10 outings he is batting .385 with two doubles, two home runs, three walks and nine RBIs.
• Maikel Garcia's .305 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Garcia is 147th among all batters in the big leagues in home runs, and 92nd in RBI.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has been a significant run producer for the Royals with 15 home runs and 56 runs batted in.
• Perez is hitting .245 with 24 doubles, 13 home runs and 16 walks.

Royals Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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