Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 18

Jonah Tong and the New York Mets will take the field against the San Diego Padres and starting pitcher Randy Vasquez on Thursday at Citi Field. The Mets are the favorite in this one, at -142, while the underdog Padres have +119 odds to win. New York is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 9 runs for this contest (with -109 odds to go over and -110 odds on the under).

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mets-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Mets Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets.

Mets vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 18, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SNY, and SDPA

Mets vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 7, Padres 6
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 52%, Padres 48%

Mets vs. Padres Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have won 60 out of the 107 games, or 56.1%, in which they've been favored.
• New York has a record of 36-29, a 55.4% win rate, when favored by -142 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 58.7% chance of a victory for the Mets.
• The Padres have been victorious in 33, or 50%, of the 66 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• San Diego has a win-loss record of 14-18 when favored by +119 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 45.7% chance of pulling out a win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have a 2-4 record from the six games they were favored on the moneyline over their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the total six times.
• The Mets' record against the spread is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto has hit a team-high 41 homers.
• Soto ranks seventh in homers and 11th in RBI among all batters in MLB.
• Soto has collected a hit in two games in a row. During his last five outings he is batting .190 with two home runs, a walk and four RBIs.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 27 home runs and 58 walks.
• Among all MLB hitters, Lindor is 34th in homers and 47th in RBI.
• Lindor enters this game looking for his seventh game in a row with a hit. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .184 with a double, a home run, five walks and an RBI.
• Pete Alonso paces the Mets in runs batted in (119) and has a team-high batting average of .270.
• Alonso will look to build on his four-game hitting in this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .350 with three home runs, a walk and six RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has 27 doubles, 23 home runs and 48 walks while hitting .261.

Mets Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have been underdogs twice in the last 10 games and split those matchups 1-1.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• Over their last 10 games, the Padres are 5-5-0 against the spread.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .265 with 27 doubles, two triples, 22 home runs and 88 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .368.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Tatis ranks 59th in homers and 94th in RBI.
• Manny Machado has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 26 home runs and 92 runs batted in.
• Machado is 39th in homers and 19th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Luis Arraez leads the Padres' lineup with a .287 batting average.
• Ramon Laureano is hitting .288 with 25 doubles, two triples, 24 home runs and 34 walks.

Padres Team Props

Padres vs. Mets Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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New York Mets

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