Louisville vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds, Picks - December 23, 2025

Updated Dec. 23, 2025 9:04 a.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Louisville Cardinals play the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl as 8.5-point favorites on December 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN. The contest's point total is 43.5.

The Cardinals' last game was against the Kentucky Wildcats, and they won by a score of 41-0. In their most recent contest, the Rockets won against the Central Michigan Chippewas, 21-3.

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Louisville vs. Toledo Game Information & Odds

When: Tuesday, December 23, 2025 at 2 p.m. ET
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
TV: ESPN
Streaming: FOX One + ESPN Bundle

Louisville vs Toledo Betting Information updated as of December 23, 2025, 8:45 a.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Louisville	-8.5 (-110)	-345	+274	43.5	-112	-108

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Louisville vs. Toledo Prediction

Pick ATS: Toledo (+8.5)
Pick OU: Over (43.5)
Prediction: Louisville 25, Toledo 21

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Louisville Cardinals vs. the Toledo Rockets game on FOX Sports!

Louisville vs. Toledo Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Cardinals 26, Rockets 18.
The Cardinals have a 77.5% chance to claim victory in this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Rockets hold a 26.7% implied probability.
Louisville has covered four times in 12 games with a spread this season.
Toledo is 9-3-0 ATS this year.

Louisville vs. Toledo: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Louisville	Toledo
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	30.2 (51)	31.6 (43)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	21.1 (32)	12.2 (4)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	16 (71)	14 (48)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	19 (36)	20 (28)

Louisville 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Miller Moss	QB	2,526 YDS (64%) / 14 TD / 7 INT -58 RUSH YDS / 9 RUSH TD / -5.3 RUSH YPG
Chris Bell	WR	72 REC / 917 YDS / 6 TD / 83.4 YPG
Keyjuan Brown	RB	592 YDS / 6 TD / 65.8 YPG / 7.3 YPC 11 REC / 118 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 14.8 REC YPG
Isaac Brown	RB	782 YDS / 5 TD / 97.8 YPG / 8.6 YPC 11 REC / 42 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 10.5 REC YPG
TJ Quinn	LB	73 TKL / 5 TFL / 3 SACK / 2 INT
Clev Lubin	DL	40 TKL / 6 TFL / 6.5 SACK
Antonio Watts	LB	37 TKL / 5 TFL / 2.5 SACK / 3 INT
D'Angelo Hutchinson	DB	70 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD

Toledo 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Tucker Gleason	QB	2,515 YDS (64.7%) / 21 TD / 9 INT 144 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 13.1 RUSH YPG
DeaMonte Trayanum	RB	950 YDS / 11 TD / 95 YPG / 5.7 YPC 19 REC / 207 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 23 REC YPG
Junior Vandeross III	WR	75 REC / 947 YDS / 11 TD / 78.9 YPG
Kenji Christian	RB	501 YDS / 4 TD / 41.8 YPG / 5.1 YPC 15 REC / 181 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 20.1 REC YPG
K'Von Sherman	LB	66 TKL / 13 TFL / 4.5 SACK
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren	DB	62 TKL / 4 TFL / 0.5 SACK / 2 INT
Braden Awls	DB	43 TKL / 4 TFL / 0.5 SACK / 5 INT
Malachi Davis	DL	28 TKL / 8 TFL / 5.5 SACK