Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds, Picks - NCAA Tournament First Round

Updated Mar. 21, 2025 10:27 a.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 8 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) and the No. 9 seed Baylor Bears (19-14) will meet in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET. The matchup airs on CBS.

The Bulldogs are a slight 1.5-point favorite against the Bears. The game's point total is set at 145.5.

Continue reading to get all the information ahead of wagering on the Mississippi State-Baylor matchup.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, March 21, 2025 at 12:15 p.m. ET
Where: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina
How to watch on TV: CBS
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Bulldogs vs Bears Betting Information
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Bulldogs	-1.5	-110	-110	145.5	-105	-115	-125	+105

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Prediction

Pick ATS: Baylor (+1.5)
Pick OU: Over (145.5)
Prediction: Baylor 76, Mississippi State 74

Learn more about the Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. the Baylor Bears game on FOX Sports!

Mississippi State vs. Baylor Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Bulldogs 74, Bears 72.
The Bulldogs have a 55.6% chance to win this game based on the moneyline's implied probability.
The Bears have a 48.8% implied probability to come out on top.

Key Spread Facts

Mississippi State has put together a 14-17-1 ATS record so far this year.
Baylor is 11-19-1 ATS this season.
When playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season, Mississippi State has an ATS record of 11-14.
Baylor has covered the spread once this year (1-9 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.

Key Total Facts

In 22 games this season, the Bulldogs and their opponent have combined to score more than 145.5 points.
Bears games have gone over 145.5 points on 11 occasions this season.
The over/under for this game is 145.5 points, 10.8 fewer than the scoring average of the two teams combined.

Key Moneyline Facts

Mississippi State has been favored on the moneyline 25 times this season. They've finished 18-7 in those games.
Baylor has been listed as the underdog 10 times this season and have failed to win any of those games.
When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -125 or shorter, Mississippi State has gone 18-6 (75% win percentage).
Baylor has not won as an underdog of +105 or more on the moneyline this season in 10 games with those odds or longer.

Mississippi State vs. Baylor: 2024-25 Stats Comparison

	Mississippi State	Baylor
Points Scored Per Game (Rank)	79.8 (43)	76.5 (106)
Points Allowed (Rank)	74.2 (248)	69.2 (89)
Rebounds (Rank)	11.5 (23)	11.0 (35)
3pt Made (Rank)	8.4 (101)	8.5 (90)
Assists (Rank)	15.3 (67)	14.6 (100)
Turnovers (Rank)	10.2 (88)	10.3 (99)

Mississippi State 2024-25 Key Players

Bulldogs Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Josh Hubbard	33	18.6	2.2	3.2	0.9	0.1	3.2
KeShawn Murphy	33	11.8	7.5	1.6	0.9	1.2	0.1
Claudell Harris Jr.	33	9.5	2.8	1.2	0.8	0.1	2
Riley Kugel	32	9.2	3	1.6	1.1	0.2	1.2
RJ Melendez	33	8.9	4.4	0.8	1	0.7	1

Baylor 2024-25 Key Players

Bears Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Norchad Omier	33	15.9	10.9	1.6	1.2	1	0.6
VJ Edgecombe	31	15	5.6	3.3	2.1	0.6	1.6
Robert O. Wright III	33	11.3	2.1	4.3	1	0.1	0.9
Jeremy Roach	27	10.3	1.9	2.7	0.8	0.1	1.4
Jayden Nunn	32	9	2.8	1.6	0.9	0.2	1.9