FIFA Men's World Cup

World Cup Qualifying: Clinch scenarios come into focus for USMNT

Published Jan. 26, 2022 7:59 p.m. ET

By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer

Let’s get this out of the way immediately: The United States Men’s National Team isn’t going to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup within the next week. Forget it. It’s not going to happen.

Sure, mathematically it’s possible. The USMNT would have to win all three of their games in this international window, beginning with El Salvador on Thursday in Columbus, Ohio. That’s definitely possible, even with a tricky trip to first-place Canada sandwiched between another home contest against Honduras in St. Paul, Minnesota (Feb. 2 on FS1 and the FOX Sports app).

No, the main reason the USMNT won’t punch their ticket early is that neither Mexico nor Panama is likely to lose their next three matches. That’s what it would take, at a minimum, for the Americans to clinch before the final window in March.

"I don't know exactly the math," U.S. star Christian Pulisic told reporters Wednesday. "But even with three wins [this window], it's not guaranteed."

Still, the fact is the U.S. enters the penultimate round of qualifying in an undeniably strong place. History tells us that should Gregg Berhalter’s side post even a .500 record over the final six games, it would almost certainly be enough to book a spot at the biggest party in sports.

The U.S. team has averaged 1.875 points through its first eight outings. That’s slightly less than Canada’s two points per game — the number Berhalter originally targeted. The formula for reaching World Cups is proven, after all: Win at home, tie away, and you’re going.

In truth, CONCACAF’s qualifying competition is slightly more forgiving than that. Since the World Cup expanded to 32 participants in 1998, the region covering North and Central America and the Caribbean has been guaranteed three automatic places per tourney. (Another half-spot was added in 2006, giving CONCACAF’s fourth-place team a chance to play a nation from another continent for one of the final berths.)

Over the past six four-year World Cup cycles, every single team that averaged more than 1.6 PPG ended up in the top three.

Four years ago, Panama managed just 1.3 PPG and finished third to qualify directly. (The U.S., at 1.2 PPG, placed fifth and failed to make it for the first time in 32 years.) During the 2014 cycle, Mexico averaged a minuscule 1.1 PPG but still reached the main event in Brazil after beating Oceania champ New Zealand in the intercontinental home-and home.

So let’s say the USMNT, which in March face their two toughest road games (at El Tri and Costa Rica) along with their final home date (vs. Panama), go just 3-3 in their final six qualifying matches. They’d still average 1.74 PPG. Again, over the past 24 years, no country with an average that high has ever failed to qualify for the World Cup.

"I’m not getting hung up on points per game," Berhalter insisted Wednesday. "I’m getting hung up on qualifying for the World Cup."

Yet with three more victories, the U.S. would be all but in. And at least two of those dubs are in sight, too — starting with Thursday.

As hosts, the Americans are heavily favored to beat both El Salvador and Honduras, currently seventh and eighth in the standings, respectively. That's even without the wintry conditions in Columbus and St. Paul that will absolutely give the USMNT an advantage — barring a snowstorm, which isn’t in the forecast.

"We're focused on beating El Salvador," Berhalter said. "After we do that, we'll focus on Canada and how we're going to win that game."

The U.S. has no reason to fear the Jan. 30 trip north of the border. Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ontario, will be half-empty because of local COVID-19 restrictions. Also, Canada will have just traveled 2,000 miles from steamy San Pedro Sula, Honduras, and will be missing their most dangerous player, Alphonso Davies, who is still recovering from COVID complications.

Meanwhile, Berhalter has perhaps his strongest roster yet, with headliners Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Sergiño Dest, Weston McKennie and Yunus Musah all available in the same window for the first time since the qualifying tournament began last year.

Sans a suspended McKennie and injured Musah, the Canadians spoiled the USMNT’s home opener with a 1-1 tie in Nashville in September. Not only have the Americans not forgotten, but they’re also a more experienced and confident squad than they were then.

"We look forward to going up there and obviously trying to get three points," Adams said.

If the U.S. can do that, it would take a near-total collapse over the final four games for the Americans to not make it. Seven points over the next week would put the USMNT on the brink of their first World Cup appearance in eight years. Anything more, and fans will be safe to start browsing flights to Qatar.

"We're in a good position," Pulisic said. "By the end of this window, we can be in a great position."

One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.