National Basketball Association

Phil Ervin's Oct. 21 Wolves mailbag

Published Oct. 21, 2014 11:15 a.m. ET

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When Andrew Wiggins, Thaddeus Young, Anthony Bennett and Zach LaVine were introduced at this year's Minnesota State Fair, the excitement was as palpable as the smell of roasted corn, funnel cakes and other midway delicacies floating down the adjacent street.

Hope has been re-infused into a Timberwolves fan base that's been sapped of it time and time again. The Kevin Love soap opera's season finale has come and gone, and folks are anticipating the new show featuring Wiggins, Ricky Rubio and a sheesh-ton of dunks set to premiere next Wednesday on FOX Sports North.

But with every new season comes a bevy of questions -- especially when a franchise's future rests largely on the shoulders of a 19-year-old that played one year of college basketball. We attempt to address your most pressing ones in the inaugural Timberwolves mailbag.

A big thanks to everyone who submitted an inquiry. Let's get after it . . .

Question: How much can we expect out of LaVine and Wiggins, realistically? -- Chris, Bismarck, N.D.

Answer: At this point, Wiggins appears more NBA-ready than LaVine. There's a good chance the former Kansas star starts in Minnesota's season opener Oct. 29 at Memphis; if he's able to hone his shot and maintain the assertiveness he's shown in four preseason games, he could even work his way into the rookie of the year conversation. After that, the sky appears to be the limit. Playing behind Kevin Martin at shooting guard and Rubio, Mo Williams and perhaps J.J. Barea at the point, LaVine is likely in line for less playing time at first. Thus far, he's struggled as he learns both guard positions in Flip Saunders' system. But that doesn't mean an ultimately low ceiling; if 6-foot-5, 180-pound LaVine adds some muscle and masters the intricacies of being an NBA combo guard, he too could prove a valuable piece in Minnesota for years to come.*

*Such prognostications are made to be disproved. An injury here, a shooting slump there, and suddenly a rookie's season can go south in a hurry. Just ask Bennett. The moral of the story: in all expectations, exercise caution. Timberwolves fans ought to know that by now.

Q. Why all the focus on Rubio's shooting? There was a time when for a point guard the ability to drive and score inside, play defense and especially pass the ball were more than enough (e.g. Bob Cousy, who did not play defense well). Actually, Rubio does all three of these well! Should there then be less focus on his shooting? It may be that he just needs to shoot a bit more from the outside so he gets comfortable doing it. -- Allen, Bismarck, N.D.

A. The answer is in your question. Indeed, the Houdini of the Hardwood played his way into the Hall of Fame by ranking as basketball's No. 1 distributor and scoring when called upon.

From 1950-63.

Since then, the NBA has added a thing called the 3-point line. It has instituted rule changes --including outlawing hand-checking -- that have made the game more wide-open, guard-driven and offense-oriented. As such, the league's top point guards possess at least some ability to hit jump shots, a skill that Rubio is far from mastering. If teams respected Rubio as a shooter, they wouldn't constantly play under pick-and-roll screens and disrupt the rest of Minnesota's offense. Oh, and more than 9.5 points per game from a guy averaging more than 30 minutes would probably help, too. It's not that Ricky must become a dead-eye 3-point threat; his career 32.3 percentage suggests he'll never surpass that. But if he was at least more of a consistent shooter, that'd open up the rest of the floor and actually allow him to become a better passer. It'd also make desires like his one for a max contract extension more reasonable than they are today.

And for the record, Rubio doesn't score well at the rim. Last year, his first fully healthy season, he shot just 42.5 percent on drives to the basket. Chris Paul, Goran Dragic, Tony Parker and Stephen Curry, for comparison's sake, all shot better than 50 percent when they went to the rim. Overall, Rubio's 36.8 career field-goal percentage ranks worst all-time among NBA point guards who have taken more than 500 shots.

That of course includes Cousy.

Ricky is an electrifying passer, a well-above-average defender, a great teammate and a genuinely good guy off the floor. But he's not an effective shooter, and until he is, he's going to be scrutinized for it.

Q. With the way the team is handling J.J. (Barea,), giving him games off for rest, it doesn't appear they are showcasing him for a trade? Does this mean bad things for (Glenn Robinson III)'s chance for making the team? I think it comes down to those two players for the last roster spot. Does (Robbie) Hummel have a chance to be the odd man out? -- Zach, New Ulm, Minn.

A. This question was submitted a week ago, when Minnesota had played only a pair of preseason games. Barea, the reserve guard and subject of much speculation and conversation this offseason, has appeared in both of the Wolves' exhibitions since then (three out of four total), including a start in Sunday's win against Oklahoma City. His playing regimen is no different than any of the other Wolves' veterans; Saunders' intention all along has been to rest some of the older guys periodically while getting a good, long look at the team's many youngsters.

With that being said, the race for Minnesota's final roster spot does appear to be between Barea, Robinson and Hummel. Hummel's steadiness throughout camp and the preseason have helped his chances of sticking around, though. Unless the Wolves are able to get something in return for Barea between now and the Oct. 27 roster deadline, they'd have to buy him out for about $4.5 million if they want to keep Robinson and Hummel. How each player performs in the Wolves' final three preseason contests could go a long way in determining who goes and who stays; of course, if Saunders were able to execute a suitable trade for Barea between now and next Monday afternoon, the entire conversation would change.

One other option: deal small forward Chase Budinger, who's reportedly on the trading block as the season approaches. Get some draft picks in return, move forward with Robinson, Hummel and Barea on the roster, and deal with the positional logjams later.

Q. Will Andrew Wiggins learn to be more aggressive? -- Kim, Jamestown, N.D.

A. If there's one common knock on Wiggins, it's his overall demeanor. He's a shy, reserved kid who doesn't speak out much during interviews and doesn't tend to draw much attention to himself.

Then again, he hasn't had to. His game has done most of the talking since he came onto the national -- well, international, given that he's from Canada -- scene as a teenager. Fans and some media members tend to draw a correlation between a player's attitude when a microphone's in front of him and his mindset when a basketball is in his hands. In some cases, this paints an accurate picture. But with Wiggins, it tends to be overemphasized. For example, when Wiggins took his turn at the team's media day, he was one of the least-outspoken players to answer questions. That night at "Dunks After Dark," he put on an absolute show along with the rest of his teammates.

Point aside, the nature of Wiggins' on-court mentality has been called into question. Scouts say he plays too laid back at times. His college coach, Bill Self, actually prodded him to be just a little more selfish. But Wiggins is just 19 and far from a finished product.

So the short answer is yes, he absolutely can. And if he wants to maximize his potential, he'd better choose to.

Q. Can we expect all the young guys to get a lot of floor time? -- Nick, Woodbury, Minn.

A. Herein resides one of the biggest catch-22s of Saunders' position as both coach and personnel chief. Player development is contingent upon in-game experience, yet the most innate part of the coach/president of basketball operation's basketball DNA would seem to suggest playing whoever gives him the best chance to win (wherever you are, Rick Adelman, that one's for you).

So Wiggins, LaVine and their pals are likely going to have to earn it.

As mentioned, the tea leaves suggest Wiggins has a good chance to start at small forward, with Corey Brewer coming off the bench. But there is a glut of wings even behind those two, including Budinger, Hummel and Shabazz Muhammad in certain alignments. LaVine could end up being the No. 2 shooting guard behind Martin, but his playing time will likely depend on Martin's production and how quickly LaVine begins grasping the ins and outs of everyday NBA life. Second-year center Gorgui Dieng and power forward Bennett's roles as primary backups appear less muddled. And because there's so much talent present at their positions, Hummel and Muhammad have a lot to prove if they're going to be a meaningful part of Saunders' everyday rotation.

There are only so many minutes to go around, and the Wolves are deep at nearly every position. To start the year, I'd expect Saunders to favor the veterans, with whichever player has a hot hand -- regardless of experience level -- in line for extended minutes. But if the season unravels as most expect it to, we could see the youngsters get some more run during the final months. After all, this team was built not just with 2014-15 in mind, but with the club's long-term success as a higher priority. That's what happens when a team trades away its superstar and starts over.

Q. Are the Timberwolves playoff-bound with the new people on the team? I think we are playoff-bound next year. -- Douglas, Bloomington, Minn.

A. With the right pieces around him, Rubio could certainly direct a team to the postseason, even in the brutal Western Conference. Wiggins has the makings of an NBA luminary. With Young (if he either exercises his player option after this season and/or re-signs a long-term extension with the Wolves), Bennett, Dieng and Nikola Pekovic, the Wolves could have one of the league's deepest frontcourts for the next few seasons.

But none of that translates to immediate success.

In the big picture, Minnesota may well end up a better team than the last one Love played on. Problem is, the West definitely improved. Immediately.

The Timberwolves went 40-42 last year and finished three spots out of the postseason. I'd be surprised if they finish anywhere near that mark this season -- not with their conference featuring the defending NBA champion Spurs, definite contenders in the Clippers and Thunder, far-and-away better teams in Houston, Portland and Golden State, and rising adversaries in Dallas, Memphis, Phoenix and New Orleans, among others.

Most predictors have the Wolves finishing well outside of postseason consideration. Count me among them.

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