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Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for September 19
Editor's note: With fantasy football content ramping up, we will only publish three fantasy baseball DFS posts a week: Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (which will include some weekend picks, too).
Thank you for understanding and I hope you continue to enjoy our content.
Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming...
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark...
2. Noah Syndergaard and the Mets are the strongest favorites on Monday (-270). Thor has yet to face the Braves in 2016, but he's allowed one run or less in four of the past five games. Syndergaard has also struck out at least seven batters in three of his last four performances.
3. Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw duel, again, on Monday. Vegas has given this game an over/under of six total runs and labeled Los Angeles as the favorite (-170). However, Kershaw hasn't thrown more than 70 pitches in a game since returning from the DL.
4. Speaking of Clayton Kershaw and his pitch count, Andy McCullough of the LA Times tweeted that Kershaw would probably be on a 90-100 count tonight. In his three starts against the Ginats this season, Kershaw averaged 102 pitches. Kershaw also won those three matchups. He struck out 13 in his last meeting.
5. For the BvP readers: Jonathan Lucroy is 5-14 (.357) with two extra-base hits against Jhoulys Chacin...J.J. Hardy is 11-25 (.440) with two extra-base hits against Rick Porcello...Also, Mark Trumbo is 7-22 (.318) with three home runs against Porcello.
Must-Start of the day: J.J. Hardy, BAL
In the past week, Hardy is 10-for-21 (.476) with one home run. Also, he has strong BvP numbers against Porcello (see "5 Things").
Deal of the day: Chris Davis, BAL
His numbers haven't been great in the past week (.154 AVG), but it only takes one swing of the bat. Davis has homered twice in the past week and he has a .284 ISO against righties this season. For his power-hitting ability, Davis is underpriced.
Avoid of the day: Brandon Belt, SF
He is 3-46 (.065) with 25 strikeouts in his career against Clayton Kershaw.
Stack of the day: Baltimore Orioles
If I didn't sell you with my must-start and deal writeups, let me continue to push the Orioles. Rick Porcello traveled to Camden Yards once this season: 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 HR. Hardy and Trumbo have decent BvP career numbers against Porcello and Davis is already mentioned as a bargain.
Starting pitchers:
Noah Syndergaard, NYM - (See "5 Things")
Clayton Kershaw, LAD - If they are ready to release the Kershaw, he should have a dominating performance tonight and at a cheaper price than usual.
Jharel Cotton, OAK - This is your salary relief option on two SP sites like DraftKings. Cotton has allowed only one earned run in each of his first two starts.
Jason Hammel, CHC - In two starts against the Reds this season, Hammel is 2-0 and hasn't allowed an earned run in 12 innings of work (10 strikeouts, too). Also, at home, Hammel is 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA this year.
Catchers:
Yadier Molina, STL - He's batting .333 in the past week and has a .340 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Wilson Ramos, WAS - He has a .292 ISO against lefties this season.
First basemen:
Albert Pujols, LAA - He has a .258 ISO against lefties this season.
David Ortiz, BOS - He has a .359 ISO against righties this year.
Chris Davis, BAL - "Deal of the day."
Second basemen:
Aledmys Diaz, STL - He's homered twice in the past week and has a .322 wOBA against lefties this year.
DJ LeMahieu, COL - He has a .388 wOBA against righties this season.
Rougned Odor, TEX - He has a .250 ISO against righties in 2016.
Third basemen:
Matt Carpenter, STL - He has a .354 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Nolan Arenado, COL - He has a .295 ISO against righties this year.
T.J. Rivera, NYM - He's batting .450 with two home runs in the past week.
Shortstops:
J.J. Hardy, BAL - "Must-start of the day."
Andrelton Simmons, LAA - He has a .340 wOBA against lefties this season.
Outfielders:
Mike Trout, LAA - He has a .387 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Stephen Piscotty, STL - He leads the Cardinals with a .276 ISO against lefties this sesaon.
Charlie Blackmon, COL - He has a .276 ISO against righties this year.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL - He has a .209 ISO against righties this season.
Carlos Beltran, TEX - He has a .205 ISO against righties in 2016.
Bryce Harper, WAS - He has a .225 ISO against southpaws this season.
