Houston Texans

Why the Texans can beat the Patriots

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 5:19 p.m. ET

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Fansided, Josh McSwain/FanSided via Toro Times

There is very little optimism for the Texans as they take on the Patriots this evening. But here is why Houston could win and lock up their first trip to an AFC Championship Game (writer Ethan Lington contributed to this article):

Every sports analyst gives Houston no shot at pulling off one of the NFL’s largest upsets in its long history. It certainly is a daunting task laid at the feet of 72 million dollar man, Brock Osweiler.

Common sense should send me running to the hills prior to publishing this piece. But champions aren’t made by fleeing and taking the easy route. Come with me as I explain how the Houston Texans shock the world.

Duane Brown and a Revitalized Offense

Okay, you may be already thinking “Revitalized offense? Who have you been watching on the field?” Well, please allow me to explain, and bear with me.

In 2016, the Houston Texan offense was abhorrent. Plain and simple, they were literally the worst offense to make the playoffs in over a decade. The last time a playoff team averaged less points per game than Houston’s offense did in 2016 (17.4), it was the 2005 Chicago Bears with 16.3 points per contest.

The Texan offense was also hot garbage when it reached the red zone. They’re converting only 40.9 percent of their red zone drives into touchdowns. This was the worst by any playoff team since the 2011 San Francisco 49ers.

So, with all of these negative factors how could I possibly believe that this offense is good enough to prevail over the top-ranked scoring defense in the NFL on their home turf?

Rewind to the wild card game. The Houston offensive line did not surrender a sack, nor a single pressure. This, to a Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin led pass rush which accounted for a combined 18 sacks during the season. To put that in perspective, The Denver Broncos top two sack artists, Von Miller and Shane Ray combined for 21.5 sacks, giving them only a slight edge. Khalil Mack is a premier pass rusher who was stifled one on one by the backup at right tackle, Chris Clark (as shown here). If they can have a repeat performance against a formidable New England front, there is a vastly larger chance at success.

In their first meeting on Thursday Night Football, Duane Brown was still sidelined with a quadriceps injury. He is finding his form at the perfect time, as his last three or four performances have been stellar. Even outside of that, Brown has only surrendered one sack and has been penalized one time for the entire season. He is undoubtedly their anchor and sets the tone up front.

The offense as a whole improved from the success of the offensive line, as they should. The Texans were a perfect three for three on converting red zone drives for touchdowns. They put up 27 points, ten more than their season average.

If Houston can repeat this type of success and put up 27 points against New England, they have a legitimate chance of stealing one from the Belichick-led machine. Of course, all of this only matters if Brock Osweiler can take care of the football and not commit any deflating turnovers.

Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus

Long gone are the days of exasperated fans clamoring for Rick Smith to be tossed out the doors for taking such a huge “bust” in defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Take time to put on the film of Clowney during the 2016 season. You’ll clearly see the domination and disruptiveness, unless of course you are a blithering idiot like Charley Casserly.

Clowney has stepped up in a major way, and the stat numbers alone do him no justice. While tied for second in the NFL with sixteen tackles for loss, he has only rung up six sacks. He has played such a huge factor in disrupting offensive game plans and taking over two (sometimes three) blockers at a time. That frees up the other rushers to have one on one matchups.

Enter Whitney Mercilus. He reaps the benefits of having excellent hands to fight off blocks while enjoying single blockers. In Mercilus’ last two playoff performances, he notched five sacks, six QB hits and a combined fifteen tackles, including six tackles for losses.

You’d be hard pressed to find a bookend duo playing at a higher level than Clowney and Mercilus in the entire NFL. The pair will have to come up big for Houston to have a shot at advancing.

The Defensive Unit as a Whole

As many people are already aware, the Texans do sport the number one defense in the NFL. In each of the last three Super Bowls, a team with that title was present. Not that Houston will have a homecoming party to the big show, but that statistic matters for a reason.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos had elite-level quarterbacks leading their respective offensive units. Russell Wilson already has one Super Bowl ring in his young career. For Denver, Peyton Manning is a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. Brock Osweiler has not shown the same level of capability of a Manning or Wilson. But they all had great running games and the number one defense in the NFL on their side.

The Houston Texans defense got demonstrably better following an embarrassing loss to Denver. The run defense was a huge factor. Rookie fifth round draft pick, DJ Reader, is a major factor alongside fellow rookie undrafted free agent Joel Heath. Watch those two players on film and you can see from week 8 and beyond, they hold the line of scrimmage in the run game and eat blockers allowing the second level of the defense to make plays on the ball carrier.

Little-known secret no longer, A.J. Bouye has been enjoying a breakout season after being called into action when second year rising star Kevin Johnson was sidelined for the remainder of the year. He is the fourth overall rated cornerback in the league according to Pro Football Focus since week 6. Johnson was the eighth overall rated cornerback before succumbing to injury. But Bouye has filled his shoes and then some.

The most remarkable thing about the unit as a whole is that they are doing this all without the three time defensive player of the year, J.J. Watt, and Kevin Johnson. Watt actually went down in the first matchup between the Patriots and Texans. The defense was pressed by three ugly turnovers, all on their own side of the fifty yard line. Two were inside of their own twenty five. Those factors all too often are too much to overcome for any team. That held true for Houston as they were blown out in an ugly game, 27-0. The positive takeaway is that Houston only surrendered 103 yards passing and they have progressed immensely in run defense.

The winning formula is out there.

Pressure Brady, disrupt his timing and throws while plugging up the gaps on LeGarrette Blount. The Texans have the capability to do just that, but it all comes down to execution.

From Clowney to Benardrick McKinney at middle linebacker, to a renaissance Brian Cushing, and strong safety help the Texans have a legitimate shot at having the defense carry them through the Foxborough nightmare.

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