National Football League

NFL odds: Tom Brady retires as second best QB all time against the spread

Updated Jan. 18, 2023 10:58 a.m. ET

Legions of NFL fans are emotional after Tom Brady officially announced his retirement in an Instagram post on Tuesday morning.

Sportsbooks, however, might send Brady a nice retirement gift basket — as the former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback will go down as the second greatest QB of all time against the spread in the regular season.

TB12 went 186-124-6 against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games during his career, covering the spread 58.9% of the time. That's downright astonishing; for context, if you had bet on Brady in every single game of his career without a second thought, you would have turned a tidy profit.

But who's first?

Of all quarterbacks to start at least 100 regular-season games in the Super Bowl Era, the only QB with a higher cover percentage than Brady is Joe Montana, who went 101-63 ATS in regular-season games for his career (61.6%).

So once again, the battle for the title of GOAT comes down to Brady and Montana.

TOP 5 QBs AGAINST THE SPREAD IN NFL HISTORY*

Joe Montana: 61.6% cover percentage (101-63 ATS)
Tom Brady: 58.9% cover percentage (186-124-6 ATS)
Alex Smith: 57.5% cover percentage (96-69-2 ATS)
Joe Theismann: 56.5% cover percentage (70-50-4 ATS)
Aaron Rodgers: 56.3% cover percentage (116-87-3 ATS)

*Super Bowl era, in regular-season games; minimum 100 starts

Of course, the betting public quickly noticed Brady's tendency to win football games.

"Tom Brady, overall, has cost sportsbooks a lot of money over the years," said Jeff Stoneback, Director of Trading for BetMGM. "The public was always on Tom Brady."

Naturally, bettors followed Brady when he signed as a free agent with the Buccaneers in 2020.

The Buccaneers started that season in the 50-1 to 60-1 range to win the Super Bowl and "it plummeted from there" as the Buccaneers kept winning, the oddsmaker said.

Brady once again made those bettors money by leading the Bucs to a win in Super Bowl LV.

"I would say last year people were betting on the Buccaneers because of Tom Brady," he continued. "As soon as Tom Brady went to Tampa, we started getting futures bets on the Buccaneers. … Tampa (futures) tickets came flooding in after he signed."

And for that, sports bettors and NFL fans alike thank you, Tom.

Here's a fun breakdown of how Brady performed for sports bettors over his career:

– In his 10 Super Bowls, Brady won as the underdog or covered as the favorite five times, lost as the favorite three times and won but didn't cover the spread twice.

– Brady and his team started the season as the betting favorite or co-favorite to win the Super Bowl nine times. Brady ended up winning the Super Bowl that season twice (Super Bowls LI and LIII).

– Brady was 25-21-1 ATS and 35-12 straight up (SU) in the playoffs in the postseason.

– Brady not only went 186-124-6 ATS but also 243-73 SU in the regular season.

– Brady has more covers ATS (211) than three teams have wins in franchise history (Carolina Panthers 205, Jacksonville Jaguars 180 and Houston Texans 139).

– Brady was 35-14-1 ATS and 30-20 SU when an underdog in regular-season games.

– Brady was 96-57-4 ATS and 133-24 SU at home in the regular season.

– Brady was 15-11-1 ATS and 22-5 SU at home in the playoffs.

– Brady was 7-3 ATS and 7-3 SU when an underdog in the playoffs.

– Brady was 3-3 ATS and 5-1 SU as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs.

– Brady was 42-34 ATS and 69-7 SU as a double-digit favorite in the regular season.

– Brady hit the over in the over/under (O/U) in 53% of regular-season games he started.

– Brady hit the over in 51% of playoff games he started.

– In Brady’s last 18 seasons, he never entered the regular season with odds higher than +1200 (12-1 in 2010) to win the Super Bowl.

– Over the last six seasons, Brady was listed as an underdog seven times, but it was against three marquee QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.

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