Denver Broncos

The 10 Biggest Threats to the Broncos' AFC West Title

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Denver Broncos are looking to win their sixth straight AFC West title. But these ten things could threaten the possibility of that happening.

I think I can speak for all Bronco fans when I say that I’m a little annoyed by the national media right now.

Every pundit seems to think that they are the first to believe the Raiders might be good, or that the Chiefs will finally put everything together this year, and the Broncos are simply dismissed by saying “well they don’t have a quarterback so whatever.”

THEY DIDN’T HAVE A QUARTERBACK LAST YEAR! The NFL’s two best defenses squared off in the Super Bowl! Have we learned nothing???

Granted, that does not mean that the Broncos will waltz to a sixth straight division title. The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football, and there are plenty of reasons for Bronco fans to be weary.

Sep 1, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the before the game Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

1. Derek Carr

The Raiders may have a quarterback folks. Carr finished as a top 10 quarterback according to PFF, and Football Outsiders had him ranked just outside the top 10, one spot behind Cam Newton in both DYAR and DVOA.

Carr has one of the most talented players in football to throw to in Amari Cooper, and his second option, Michael Crabtree, is one of the most dependable third down receivers in the game. If uber-TE prospect Clive Walford ever figures it out, this will be one of the most dangerous passing offenses, thanks in large part to the next big threat to the Broncos title defense.

Sep 27, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Oakland Raiders offensive line during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

2. Raiders Offensive Line

While Derek Carr has not sealed the deal, the quality of his offensive line is not up for debate. PFF ranked the Raiders second last year and after adding a top five guard in the offseason, Kelechi Osemele, PFF listed them behind only Dallas’ ridiculous contingent of athletic freaks coming into this season.

I’d suggest grabbing a Raiders running back in your fantasy draft as this is one of those lines anyone can rush for 1,000 yards behind – as Latavius Murray demonstrated last year despite finishing 33rd in yards per carry behind such luminaries as fat Eddie Lacy, Chris Johnson’s still in the league???, and Ronnie “looking for work” Hillman.

Dec 24, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack (52) celebrates after a safety against the San Diego Chargers during an NFL football game at O.co Coliseum. The Raiders defeated the Chargers 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

3. Oakland’s Front Seven

Khalil Mack, Von Miller, JJ Watt, Aaron Donald. That’s the list of players who can consistently singlehandedly change a game from inside the box. Nose tackle Dan Williams can only be moved by a forklift, and Bruce Irvin keeps an offense honest by beating one on ones on the side opposite Mack.

The Raiders defense was inconsistent last season due in large part to a leaky secondary that brought in Sean Smith from Kansas City to help out at corner. The hype around the Raiders is for real. They have the highest upside of any team in the AFC West.

Nov 1, 2015; London, United Kingdom; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (50) celebrates with teammates Tamba Hall (91) and Eric Fisher (72) after intercepting a pass in the second quarter against the Detroit Lions during game 14 of the NFL International Series at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

4. Chiefs Defense

Justin Houston is a certified monster. However, his career is constantly threatened by injuries.. He will start the season on the PUP list and miss at least six games. Dontari Poe is one of the most dominant players in football, but he missed time last year, which may have been due in part to the fact that he played over 90% of snaps the year before – an insane amount for a defensive tackle.

Look for 2nd round pick and top 10 talent Chris Jones to shine in spot duty on the line this year. Eric Berry is the best safety in football pre and post lymphoma, and the Chiefs are playing hardball by placing the franchise tag on him because…Chiefs.

Marcus Peters lead the league in interceptions last season, which was due in large part to the fact that no cornerback was targeted more than him. With Sean Smith departed, he will surely see the ball less this year, and whether the busts remain in his game while the booms decrease remains to be seen.

There are many moving parts to this defense, but when it’s humming, it can roll with anyone in the league.

Oct 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) runs the ball against Cincinnati Bengals in the second half of the game at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati defeated Kansas City 36-21. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

5. Kansas City’s Playmakers

Every year Kansas City trots out another good but not great offense maximized by Andy Reid’s system and the league’s best check down QB.

With the right defense, which Kansas City may possess, you could win a title with that kind of offense given the right playmakers, and they may have them too.

Jamaal Charles is the all-time NFL leader in yards per carry, so we know what he can do (and not do) in space. Travis Kelce was tied amongst all tight ends for most missed tackles forced. Jeremy Maclin might be the best receiver the Chiefs have ever had.

A handful of missed tackles or blown coverages can swing entire seasons, and all it would take is a little good fortune for the Chiefs offense to go from serviceable to one of the league’s best.

Sep 1, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) throws during warmups before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

6. Zombie Rivers

The Chargers were one of the worst teams in football last season. However, Phillip Rivers still had a good season, finishing 2nd in completion percentage and 8th in DYAR.

If he can get some consistency around him this year, the Chargers offense should be dramatically improved, and it’s hard to see how the defense could be any worse, especially with Joey Bosa is on the roster.

If you believe that the Chargers are to be dismissed, then you did not learn from the Walking Dead: 2014 AFC Divisional Playoff edition. I won’t believe the Chargers are gone until I get visual confirmation that Rivers is six feet under.

Sep 1, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian prior to the game against the Arizona Cardinals during a preseason game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

7. Siemian/Lynch/Davis

This is the worst quarterback situation any defending Super Bowl champion has endured since the last time the Broncos retired an all-time great and started a late round draft pick in his place. Man, Colorado sports are going HAM on the 90’s reboots.

More from Predominantly Orange

If Trevor Siemian is 75% Alex Smith, then we can consider that a win – but quarterbacks like that always leave infinitely more plays on the field than they make.

Paxton Lynch is the future, and the future may come sooner than anyone thought considering Austin Davis is the only quarterback on the roster with an NFL throw; but Lynch is still far too raw to toss out to the lions of the NFL.

It’s hard to see how the Broncos don’t finish in the bottom half of the league in QB production.

I would be more optimistic given that CJ is a proven big time running back, Devontae Booker is a stud, and Sanders and DT combine for one of the best wide receiver duos in football, but none of this matters if there is no time to get the ball to these guys.

Jul 28, 2016; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos offensive tackle Russell Okung (73) reacts during training camp drills held at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

8. Offensive Line

The line last year was a hot mess, and the Broncos were right to shake it up. But the consequence is that continuity – one of the most important elements of a good offensive line, is sacrificed.

The incoming class does not inspire a ton of confidence either, as their lone opportunity against top shelf NFL talent this preseason resulted in Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn, and company tossing them around like ragdolls. Russell Okung is great when healthy, but there’s a risk that those peak years are behind him.

Donald Stephenson is an upgrade at LT, although given the way Michael Schofield played at times last year, a pile of tires would be an upgrade. Replacing PFF’s top rated run blocker, Evan Mathis at guard next to Stephenson is…Michael Schofield!?! This should be fun.

Sep 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDanials looks on with New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and New England Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan (15) in the second half at MetLife Stadium. The New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots 17-9. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports

9. New England

Last year, the difference between a first round bye then a home AFC title game versus a trip to Houston, then New England, and then Kansas City or home for Pittsburgh was Peyton’s week two comeback and Jamaal Charles’ subsequent fumble.

Adding an up and coming Raiders team and a probable bounce back season from the Chargers should tighten this division significantly. The Broncos play the Patriots and the rest of the division does not. In a year where the AFC West seems destined to be decided by one game, the Broncos’ first place schedule could be the ultimate factor.

Jul 28, 2016; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (94) signs autographs following training camp drills held at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

10. Regression

As I detailed in my column on other great Super Bowl winning defenses, regression seems to catch up to everyone. The Broncos defense and special teams scoring touchdowns in over half the games again seems unlikely.

Even Tampa Bay backslid the following season with five hall of fame players still in or near their primes! The absolute most optimistic high off of that Colorado supply puts this Bronco D at five hall of famers (Ware (lock), Von (lock within a couple years), Harris Jr., Talib, Wolfe), and it’s a real stretch for a couple of them given the disrespect the hall of fame shows the Broncos.

Far as I can tell, the only area in which Jerry Jones surpasses Pat Bowlen is in losing seasons. What a bloody joke. pic.twitter.com/kQPnMHbYpe

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) August 16, 2016

Next: Conclusion

Aug 27, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak looks at his play sheet during the second quarter of a preseason game against the Los Angeles Rams at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned going into this season. The defending championship pressure is tangible, as Mark Schlereth described in “America’s Game: 1998 Broncos.”

Relief. Just…**exhales**…thank you. Glad that one’s over. I remember after Super Bowl 32 staying up all night at the party, goofin around. I remember goin to the party – Super Bowl 33 afterwards, havin something to eat, and goin up to my room and going to bed. Exhausted. Absolutely exhausted. That was the difference. Defending the crown versus chasing the crown. It’s a task; it’s a monumental task.

This defense is up to the task. The beginning of the offseason was marked by the traditional “The Super Bowl champion is losing everyone!!!” pearl clutching stories. Losing Danny Trevathan hurts. Especially against the Patriots, as they now have two giant gorillas who can run a sub 4.6 40 yard dash.

Losing Malik Jackson hurts more. What made last year’s defense so especially devastating was the fact that Wolfe and Malik got a laughable amount of one on one’s due to the pressure generated off the edge. It’s a real question whether the Broncos have the personnel to replicate their success cutting through the center of an offense.

However, they’re bringing back 11 of the 13 best players from one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. The entire #NoFlyZone returns with an upgrade from the draft in Justin Simmons, and the grand wizard of it all – Wade Phillips.

The offense was truly awful last year, and even though there is little hope for an explosive one this season, it should be much more competent.

The Broncos are not your typical defending champion. They are considered a fluke by the general public and the masters of the desert.

Vegas lists them at 17-1 odds to repeat, behind six teams – three of which the Broncos beat to win a title last year. The defense completely shut down the highest scoring offense in the NFL seven months ago. And the Broncos are 3.5 point underdogs at home in this week’s rematch.

Unlike the 1998 Broncos, there is no widespread expectation for this team to repeat; quite the contrary. The punditry has declared this to be the season in which Andy Reid finally figures out how clocks work, the Raiders stop being so Raidery, and even the Chargers with their undead QB overtake the defending champs.

It’s been five years since anyone outside the mountain time zone claimed this territory, and given that the 2016 Broncos look like a more complete version of the one who just won a Super Bowl, a sixth looks to be well within reach.

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