Texans vs. Chiefs: Line and Over/Under

Jan 27, 2016; Wahiawa, HI, USA; Houston Texans mascot Toro (left) and Kansas City Chiefs mascot K.C. Wolf at the 2016 Pro Bowl Draft at Wheeler Army Airfield. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs are a 2 1/2 point underdog against the Texans. The Over & Under is 43.5. I predicted the Texans by 3 and the Under in June. What, if anything, has changed?

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Looking back at the Bears game, the June prediction was spot on, but I missed the Over/Under in the follow-up prediction that used pre-game information. I blame that partly on J. J. Watt. I didn’t believe he could play more than a cameo role so soon after back surgery. My advice for those who thought he could play significant snaps was to pick the Under, but I leaned the other way…just flat forgot that he is J. J. Watt.

Even so, except for a dropped touchdown pass (Will Fuller), a missed touchdown pass (DeAndre Hopkins – too tough to be considered a drop, but catchable) and two red zone penalties the Over was the way to go. However, “Ifs” and “buts” are for losers and I lost that one.

The Chiefs are a much stronger opponent than the Bears. Justin Houston is on the PUP list, but Duane Brown’s absence makes that a push. Brian Cushing is out, but he may have been on the sidelines a lot as the Texans use sub-packages to counter the Chiefs short/intermediate passing game. Overall, not a lot has changed since June when “pick-’em” was the Vegas call.

Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) leaps over Houston Texans cornerback Johnathan Joseph (24) in the third quarter in a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs were two different teams in their first game.

Which Chiefs team will show up, the sluggish group that was gashed early and often by the Chargers in the first half or the dominating team that won the second half and the overtime? I expect it to be the latter.

chiefs

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Watt should be more effective this week, and Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus and John Simon will keep the pressure on. However, the Chiefs short passing game tends to negate pressure. How well the Texans handle the short dump-offs to the running backs and quarterback Alex Smith’s scrambling and read options without giving up the big play will tell the story.

I expect this to be a guessing game between the coordinators. Tight end Travis Kelce ripped the Texans in both 2015 games, and the Chiefs are improved at wide receiver. Alex Smith can go down the field if the Texans over-commit to the short passing game.  The Chiefs prefer to run the ball and stretch the field horizontally in the passing game, but they now have vertical capability.

But, the Chiefs aren’t the only team to add big play ability. The Texans made radical improvement at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. The Texans young guns will be a good test for the Chiefs potent defense. I don’t have to got very far out on the limb to predict the Texans will score more than “0” this game.

Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Jaelen Strong (11) attempts to catch a pass while defended by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (22) during an AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. Kansas City defeated Houston 30-0. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With the Texans favored by 2 1/2 points and the combined score projected at 43.5 my picks are the Chiefs taking the points and the Over.

This is going to be a very close game decided by a late turnover or penalty. My prediction is that the Texans win 24-23.

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Jan 27, 2016; Wahiawa, HI, USA; Houston Texans mascot Toro (left) and Kansas City Chiefs mascot K.C. Wolf at the 2016 Pro Bowl Draft at Wheeler Army Airfield. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs are a 2 1/2 point underdog against the Texans. The Over & Under is 43.5. I predicted the Texans by 3 and the Under in June. What, if anything, has changed?

texans

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Looking back at the Bears game, the June prediction was spot on, but I missed the Over/Under in the follow-up prediction that used pre-game information. I blame that partly on J. J. Watt. I didn’t believe he could play more than a cameo role so soon after back surgery. My advice for those who thought he could play significant snaps was to pick the Under, but I leaned the other way…just flat forgot that he is J. J. Watt.

Even so, except for a dropped touchdown pass (Will Fuller), a missed touchdown pass (DeAndre Hopkins – too tough to be considered a drop, but catchable) and two red zone penalties the Over was the way to go. However, “Ifs” and “buts” are for losers and I lost that one.

The Chiefs are a much stronger opponent than the Bears. Justin Houston is on the PUP list, but Duane Brown’s absence makes that a push. Brian Cushing is out, but he may have been on the sidelines a lot as the Texans use sub-packages to counter the Chiefs short/intermediate passing game. Overall, not a lot has changed since June when “pick-’em” was the Vegas call.

Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) leaps over Houston Texans cornerback Johnathan Joseph (24) in the third quarter in a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs were two different teams in their first game.

Which Chiefs team will show up, the sluggish group that was gashed early and often by the Chargers in the first half or the dominating team that won the second half and the overtime? I expect it to be the latter.

chiefs

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Watt should be more effective this week, and Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus and John Simon will keep the pressure on. However, the Chiefs short passing game tends to negate pressure. How well the Texans handle the short dump-offs to the running backs and quarterback Alex Smith’s scrambling and read options without giving up the big play will tell the story.

I expect this to be a guessing game between the coordinators. Tight end Travis Kelce ripped the Texans in both 2015 games, and the Chiefs are improved at wide receiver. Alex Smith can go down the field if the Texans over-commit to the short passing game.  The Chiefs prefer to run the ball and stretch the field horizontally in the passing game, but they now have vertical capability.

But, the Chiefs aren’t the only team to add big play ability. The Texans made radical improvement at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. The Texans young guns will be a good test for the Chiefs potent defense. I don’t have to got very far out on the limb to predict the Texans will score more than “0” this game.

Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Jaelen Strong (11) attempts to catch a pass while defended by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (22) during an AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. Kansas City defeated Houston 30-0. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With the Texans favored by 2 1/2 points and the combined score projected at 43.5 my picks are the Chiefs taking the points and the Over.

This is going to be a very close game decided by a late turnover or penalty. My prediction is that the Texans win 24-23.

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